woensdag 14 april 2010

Enquete toont magere steun Palestijnen voor grenzen 1967

Zoals vaak met enquetes zijn sommige vragen (en dus ook de antwoorden) ambigu en multi-interpretabel. Ook wordt soms meermaals min of meer dezelfde vraag gesteld maar verschillend beantwoord. Zo vraagt men of de respondenten de beslissing van de PA steunen om niet met Israel te praten zolang het bouwt in Oost-Jeruzalem en op de Westoever (ja 78,6% nee 19%). Daarvoor had echter 48,7% gezegd directe onderhandelingen tussen Israel en de PA te steunen. Op de vraag of men onderhandelingen steunt zolang Israel bouwt in Jeruzalem en op de WB antwoordt 14,3% bevestigend. Drie keer dezelfde vraag naar de wenselijkheid van onderhandelingen, drie keer een ander antwoord.
A new survey by An Najah University indicates that Palestinian Arab public opinion in the West Bank and Gaza strip is overwhelmingly opposed to two principles that were incorporated in the 2000 Clinton Bridging Proposals. The proposals call for an exchange of territory between Israel and the new Palestinian state, with the Palestinians getting about 95% of the land, and for dividing East Jerusalem, so that areas that are predominantly Jewish would become part of Israel.
Survey respondents overwhelmingly rejected both principles. 66.7% said they were opposed to any land exchange. 77.4% were opposed to making Jerusalem the capital of two states, Israel and Palestine. It is probable that the question in Arabic referred to "Al Quds" which was understood as meaning East Jerusalem. A bear 51.7% majority would support, "creation of a Palestinian state on the area of the 1967 borders as a final solution for the Palestinian problem?" The question did not mention either "recognition of Israel" or "peace."

The areas that the Palestinians demand would include, it seems, the Jewish neighborhoods of Ramat Eshkol and French Hill, as well as the Jewish quarter of the Old City, the campus of the Hebrew University on Mt Scopus that was erected in the 1920s, the Wailing Wall and other sites of central national, historic and religious importance to the Jewish people and the state of Israel.

Respondents were not asked about other aspects of the Clinton bridging proposals, which give Israel the right to decide how many Palestinian refugees will enter Israel. Previous surveys have indicated that about 80% of Palestinians insist on the "Right of Return" of refugees, a condition which would result in an Arab majority in Israel and destroy Jewish self-determination.

Given the narrow majority that would "accept" a final settlement that includes all of Jerusalem and all the territory of the 1949 armistice lines, without mentioning peace or recognition of Israel or the refugee problem, it is unlikely that Palestinians could be persuaded to support a peace package that would be acceptable even to the dovish Meretz party or to Uri Avnery of Gush Shalom, who is opposed to Right of Return for refugees.

Ami Isseroff
De resultaten die hierboven worden becommentarieerd:

·       51.7% of respondents agreed on the establishment of a Palestinian State within the total area of the1967 boarders; 44.7% rejected.

·       28.3% of respondents agreed on the establishment of a Palestinian State within the 1967 boarders with some land exchange as a final solution for the Palestinian problem; 66.7% rejected.

·       66.7% of respondents saw that the final solution of the Palestinian problem should be implemented on the basis of a permanent solution; 30.3% saw that it should be implemented on stages.

·       20.8% of respondents supported making Jerusalem as the capital of two states: Palestine and Israel; 77.4% rejected.



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