vrijdag 20 maart 2015

Bibi heeft gewonnen, maar rechts Israel verloor (IMO)

 

 

http://www.israel-palestina.info/actueel/2015/03/20/bibi-heeft-gewonnen-maar-rechts-israel-verloor/  

= IMO Blog =  

Nadat de peilingen in Israel vorige week een nek aan nek race tussen Netanyahu en de centrumlinkse Zionistische Unie voorspelden, verbaasde de overtuigende overwinning van Likoed velen. Ik was zelf om eerlijk te zijn blij verrast met die peilingen, die hoop gaven op verandering, op een Israel dat weer vrienden maakt in het Westen en laat zien dat het bereid is tot compromissen. Een Israel ook waar de gigantische verschillen tussen arm en rijk weer iets worden recht getrokken zodat niet honderdduizenden mensen zijn aangewezen op particuliere liefdadigheidsinstellingen voor hun dagelijks brood, en jonge gezinnen weer een fatsoenlijke woning kunnen vinden.

Zoals bekend neem ik het op deze blog vaak op voor Israel, ageer tegen eenzijdige kritiek en suggestieve berichtgeving, en dat is net iets leuker als er in Israel een regering zit waarmee ikzelf ook affiniteit heb, die keuzes maakt die ik onderschrijf of op zijn minst goed kan begrijpen, die oog heeft voor dilemma’s en die kritiek niet allemaal afdoet als anti-Israel of zelfs antisemitisch. In Israel heeft vaak, juist ook in moeilijke tijden, een pragmatische houding gezegevierd boven een halsstarrig principiële, en dat is ook meer dan eens haar redding geweest. Hoewel ook Netanyahu pragmatischer is dan hij in Westerse media vaak wordt neergezet, kiest hij zelf vooral de samenwerking met de rechtse partijen en maakt zich daardoor afhankelijk van de kolonistenbeweging. En hoewel ik het vastlopen van de vredesbesprekingen voor een flink deel aan Abbas wijt, is Netanyahu duidelijk ook niet enthousiast. Dat er toch nog redelijk serieus is gepraat ligt vooral aan de inzet van Livni, die de gesprekken voerde en een sterk pleitbezorgster is van de tweestatenoplossing.

Zoals bekend kwamen de voorspellingen niet uit en won Likoed de verkiezingen met 30 zetels overtuigend. In het stemhokje bleek de veiligheid wellicht toch een belangrijker onderwerp te zijn dan de economische malaise. Want hoewel velen Netanyahu zat zijn, heeft men tegelijkertijd het gevoel dat hij de veiligheid beter kan waarborgen dan een nieuweling, bovendien niet bijzonder charismatisch, van een linkse partij. Dat is misschien ook wel begrijpelijk, gegeven de instabiliteit in de regio. Het hemd is nader dan de rok en verandering houdt altijd een risico in. De oorlog met Hamas vorige zomer en de dreiging van de tunnels (Hamas zou alweer diverse tunnels hebben gebouwd) helpen ook niet mee. Ook in Jeruzalem was het de laatste tijd onrustig, en de Palestijnen hebben weer een nieuw wapen ontdekt: de auto, waarmee argeloze voetgangers en wachtenden bij tramhaltes worden aan- en overreden.

Daarbij heeft Netanyahu in de laatste dagen een bijzonder harde campagne gevoerd en daarmee waarschijnlijk stemmen bij (extreem)rechts weggehaald. Zo heeft hij zich duidelijk tegen een tweestatenoplossing uitgesproken, voor het verder bouwen in de nederzettingen en zich anti-Arabisch geuit. Hij sprak op de dag van de verkiezingen van Arabieren die ‘met bosjes’ in bussen naar de stembureaus zouden zijn gebracht door linkse NGO’s met geld uit het buitenland. Klinkt nogal naar een complottheorie, maar de senaat gaat serieus onderzoeken of de regering Obama geld heeft gestoken in de zogenaamde V15 beweging, die uit was op Netanyahu’s val. Zelfs als dat klopt is de uitspraak over het hoge aantal Arabieren dat zou zijn gaan stemmen misplaatst. Iedere staatsburger heeft immers het recht om te stemmen, en een goede opkomst is een goede zaak, niet iets om je zorgen over te maken.

Maar voordat er wordt geconcludeerd dat dergelijke harde taal dus blijkbaar is wat ‘de’ kiezer wil horen, is het goed te beseffen dat net als bij ons het politieke landschap erg versnipperd is. Netanyahu heeft gezegd een coalitie te willen vormen met maar liefst 6 partijen, namelijk de 5 rechtse en Joods-religieuze partijen alsmede de nieuwe middenpartij Kudanu, waarmee hij op 67 van de 120 zetels zou uitkomen. Al die partijen hebben hun eigen wensen en willen zich onderscheiden. Hoe met al die partijen een stabiele regering kan worden gevormd en goed, doordacht beleid kan worden gevoerd dat Israel behoed voor alle gevaren en problemen die het op zijn weg vindt, is mij niet geheel duidelijk. Een grote coalitie zou mijn inziens de stabiliteit beter waarborgen, maar daarvoor is van beide kanten weinig animo.

Voor velen bevestigt deze uitslag desondanks dat Israel steeds havikachtiger wordt en steeds verder van het pad af lijkt te geraken. Terwijl in feite links een behoorlijk goede uitslag heeft geboekt, en de arbeidspartij lang niet zo sterk naar voren kwam. Weliswaar heeft men dit alleen bereikt door met Livni’s Hatnua samen te gaan, maar men heeft 3 zetels meer gehaald dan beide partijen afzonderlijk hadden. De winst van Netanyahu lijkt dan ook vooral van de nog rechtsere partijen te zijn afgegaan, van Yisrael Beiteinu dat nog slechts 6 zetels haalde en Bennetts Joods Thuis dat van 12 naar 8 zetels is gezakt. Ook de 2 ultra orthodoxe partijen hebben samen flink verloren, en zakten van 18 naar 13 zetels. De Arabische partijen, nu samen in een lijst, hebben 2 zetels winst geboekt. Dan is er nog de middenpartij Kulanu bijgekomen, en heeft Yesh Atid, ook een middenpartij, flink verloren. Al met al lijken de verschuivingen tussen links en rechts niet heel groot te zijn: de ultra orthodoxe partijen hebben 5 zetels verloren, waarvan 1 naar het rechtse blok is gegaan, 2 naar centrumlinks en 2 naar de Arabische lijst. Het verlies van de harediem zal overigens voor een redelijk deel veroorzaakt zijn door de deelname van een nieuwe partij die net niet de kiesdrempel haalde maar wel stemmen van de andere ultra orthodoxe partijen afsnoepte.

Esther Voet, zelf zeer gematigd, legde in een column voor Jalta helder uit waarom rechtse partijen zo’n aantrekkingskracht uitoefenen op de Israelische kiezer:

… terwijl het hele Midden-Oosten in brand staat, in Syrië honderdduizenden worden vermoord, in China duizenden executies per jaar plaatsvinden en Rusland hele delen van Oekraïne inlijft, focust de wereld zich op alles wat Israel niet goed zou doen op de Westbank waar een zwakke, corrupte leider de scepter zwaait en liepen de Europese straten deze zomer vol in protest tegen Israëls actie tegen het terroristische Hamas. En Bennett heeft nog een punt als je kijkt naar meest recente de VN-resoluties: in 2013 werden er 21 aangenomen tegen Israel. Daar stond 1 resolutie tegen Syrië, 1 tegen Iran, 1 tegen Myanmar en 1 tegen Noord-Korea tegenover. In 2014? 20 tegen Israel, 1 tegen Syrië, 1 tegen Noord-Korea en 1 tegen Iran. Geen wonder dat Bennett’s ‘u zoekt het maar uit’-politiek bij veel Israëli’s in goede aarde valt; Israëli’s kunnen ook tellen. En statistieken zijn het met hem eens. Zelfs een ruime meerderheid van de Israelische Arabieren die binnen de groene lijn van 1967 leven, verklaarden deze zomer onder geen beding te willen leven onder de leiding van de Palestijnse Autoriteit.

Juist de vaak zeer kritische en negatieve houding in Europa, de VN en ook gedeeltelijk de VS, versterkt in Israel het sentiment dat men er als het erop aankomt alleen voor staat en dus sterk moet zijn. Het toenemende antisemitisme, tegenwoordig veelal uit Arabische hoek, en de in Israels ogen vaak lakse houding daar tegenover, versterken dat gevoel. Toen Netanyahu Europese Joden opriep naar Israel te emigreren omdat ze hier niet langer veilig zijn, vielen velen over hem heen. Het is een geluid dat we hier niet graag horen, het raakt aan ons schuldgevoel over de Holocaust. We houden niet van deze assertieve toon uit Israel, maar vergeten weleens dat Israel onze bemoeizucht ook behoorlijk moe is. Van hieruit is het makkelijk roepen dat men meer concessies moet doen en geen aanvallen mag uitvoeren op terroristen als er ook burgers bij kunnen omkomen, maar de inwoners van Sderot en omstreken zien hoe Hamas de tunnels herbouwt en hebben slapeloze nachten. Er lijkt in het Westen nog maar weinig begrip te zijn voor de reële veiligheidsproblemen van Israel en de lastige dilemma’s in een oorlog tegen terrorisme. En nee, niet alles kan op de bezetting worden afgeschoven, en zonder bezetting veranderen de Palestijnen niet plots in Finnen.

Ondertussen is Netanyahu alweer aan het terugkomen op zijn felle verkiezingsretoriek. In een tv interview zei hij niet tegen een tweestatenoplossing te zijn, aldus de Times of Israel:

“I haven’t changed my policy,” Netanyahu insisted. “I never retracted my speech at Bar-Ilan University six years ago calling for a demilitarized Palestinian state that recognizes a Jewish state.”

“What has changed is the reality,” he continued. “[Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas] the Palestinian leader refuses to recognize the Jewish state and has made a pact with Hamas that calls for the destruction of the Jewish state, and every territory that is vacated today in the Middle East is taken up by Islamist forces. We want that to change so that we can realize a vision of real, sustained peace. I don’t want a one-state solution. I want a sustainable, peaceful two-state solution, but for that, circumstances have to change.”

Zo snel kun je een verkiezingsbelofte breken. Een paar telefoontjes van regeringsleiders brachten Netanyahu waarschijnlijk weer met beide benen op de grond. Hij wil zoals gezegd een regering vormen met alle rechtse, nationalistische en religieuze partijen, maar zal waarschijnlijk door de VS gedwongen worden weer met de Palestijnen om de tafel te gaan zitten, gevangenen vrij te laten en de nederzettingenbouw te bevriezen. De spagaat van de afgelopen jaren, waarin hij enerzijds de kolonisten en rechtse nationalisten uit zijn regering tevreden moest houden en anderzijds de hete adem van Obama en andere internationale spelers in de nek voelt, zal er alleen maar groter op worden. Daarbij lijkt een kabinet met 6 partijen op zichzelf al een hele klus om in elkaar te zetten. Of zal het toch uitdraaien op een grote coalitie?

Ratna Pelle

Zie ook op IPI: Verkiezingsuitslag Israel 2015

 

Netanyahu wijst tweestatenoplossing toch niet af

 

Hoe snel kun je een verkiezingsbelofte breken? Ik meen dat de PVV indertijd een nacht nodig had om van mening te veranderen over de AOW leeftijd, Netanyahu had twee dagen nodig om zijn mening over de tweestatenoplossing te herzien. Maandag zei hij nog dat hij geen Palestijnse staat zou toestaan zolang hij regeert, maar nu de rechtse kiezers binnen zijn (de winst van Likoed ging vooral ten koste van de kleinere rechtse partijen) en er weer gepraat moet worden met de rest van de wereld, is het handiger je wat diplomatieker te uiten, en dus zegt hij:

 

“I haven’t changed my policy,” Netanyahu insisted. “I never retracted my speech at Bar-Ilan University six years ago calling for a demilitarized Palestinian state that recognizes a Jewish state.”

“What has changed is the reality,” he continued. “[Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas] the Palestinian leader refuses to recognize the Jewish state and has made a pact with Hamas that calls for the destruction of the Jewish state, and every territory that is vacated today in the Middle East is taken up by Islamist forces. We want that to change so that we can realize a vision of real, sustained peace. I don’t want a one-state solution. I want a sustainable, peaceful two-state solution, but for that, circumstances have to change.”

 

Netanyahu heeft vandaag Obama aan de telefoon gehad, die hem – ietwat verlaat – feliciteerde met zijn verkiezingsoverwinning, maar ook het belang onderstreepte van het vredesproces met de Palestijnen. Hij zal meer regeringsleiders hebben gesproken, die waarschijnlijk hun zorg zullen hebben geuit over de felle verkiezingsretoriek van Netanyahu in de dagen voorafgaand aan de verkiezingen. Of de mensen die op het laatst toch maar besloten Likoed te stemmen dat zullen betreuren valt te bezien. Ze weten ook dat Netanyahu bepaald niet warm loopt voor de vredesbesprekingen, en Abbas evenmin, dus die Palestijnse staat zal zo’n vaart niet lopen.

 

RP

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Netanyahu backs away from rejection of two-state solution

http://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-backs-away-from-rejection-of-two-state-solution/

In NBC interview, PM insists he still supports Palestinian state in principle, says that he is not a racist; tells Fox ‘you can’t force the people of Israel to accept terms that would endanger them’

  March 19, 2015, 7:02 pm 

·          

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu being interviewed by MSNBC on Thursday, March 19, 2015. (photo credit: Screen capture, MSNBC)

·          

WASHINGTON — Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday walked back statements made during campaigning rejecting the possibility of a two-state solution, telling NBC’s Andrea Mitchell, “I don’t want a one-state solution. I want a sustainable, peaceful two-state solution.”

Netanyahu’s first post-elections interview was delivered to the US news TV station, indicating a focus on calming tensions with Washington, which have risen steeply following a sharp right turn by Netanyahu in the final days of his campaign.

“I haven’t changed my policy,” Netanyahu insisted. “I never retracted my speech at Bar-Ilan University six years ago calling for a demilitarized Palestinian state that recognizes a Jewish state.”

“What has changed is the reality,” he continued. “[Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas] the Palestinian leader refuses to recognize the Jewish state and has made a pact with Hamas that calls for the destruction of the Jewish state, and every territory that is vacated today in the Middle East is taken up by Islamist forces. We want that to change so that we can realize a vision of real, sustained peace. I don’t want a one-state solution. I want a sustainable, peaceful two-state solution, but for that, circumstances have to change.”

On Monday, Netanyahu had told Israeli news outlet Maariv that he would not allow a Palestinian state on his watch, as he attempted to rally voters from the right to cast ballots for his Likud party ahead of Tuesday’s election.

The statement was seen as an about face of Netanyahu’s 2009 Bar-Ilan speech, during which he said he was committed to a two-state solution.

Netanyahu handily won the election Tuesday against center-left rival Isaac Herzog, in part, analysts said, because of his last-ditch hardline appeal.

The comment brought an international backlash, with sources saying the White House may pull back support for Israel at the United Nations, compounding the prime minister’s already fractured relationship with US President Barack Obama.

On Wednesday, the Obama administration launched a scathing critique of Netanyahu’s campaign statements, even indicating that if Netanyahu rejected a negotiated path toward a two-state solution, the US would support Palestinian initiatives to unilaterally declare independence through the United Nations.

In a second US TV interview on Thursday, with Fox News, Netanyahu said he hoped that wasn’t the case.

“I hope that’s not true, and I think that President Obama has said time and time again, as I’ve said, that the only path to a peace agreement is an agreement, a negotiated agreement.

“You can’t impose it,” he went on. “You can’t force the people of Israel — who’ve just elected me by a wide margin, to bring them peace and security, to secure the State of Israel — to accept terms that would endanger the very survival of the State of Israel. I don’t think that’s the direction of American policy. I hope it’s not.”

The prime minister downplayed the level of discord with Washington, noting to NBC that “Secretary Kerry called me yesterday, and I am sure I’ll be speaking to President Obama soon.”

“We’ll work together – we have to – because we have no other alternatives. We’re allies,” Netanyahu insisted. “We have to consult each other, not have fiats or unilateral impositions but negotiated peace with our neighbors and support between allies, and America has no greater ally than Israel and Israel has no greater ally than the United States.”

He also stressed that he “didn’t mean any disrespect” to Obama in addressing Congress earlier this month to warn against an impending deal on Iran’s nuclear program.

Later in the interview, the premier demonstrated unusual flexibility on the issue, saying that allowing Iran to retain a “small number” of its centrifuges as part of a deal “wasn’t something that Israel and its Arab neighbors would love, but it is something that they could live with.”

Israel’s traditional position has been that Iran must be stripped of an capacity to create nuclear weapons, including the dismantlement of all facilities used to enrich either uranium or plutonium.

The prime minister rejected allegations that the decision to bypass the White House and make a speech at the invitation of the Republican-controlled Congress was a partisan move.

The prime minister also dismissed allegations that he had resorted to race-baiting following comments about high Arab voter turnout during the election, saying that he was not a racist.

Netanyahu defended his record in reaching out to the Arab community. “I will continue to do that — in my government — to have real integration of Arab citizens of Israel into the Israeli economy, Israeli high-tech, and Israeli society. My commitment is real and it will stay real.”

Netanyahu doubled down, however, on his allegations that there was a well-funded international campaign against him.

He emphasized that his warning was not about Arabs-Israelis voting in general, but rather warning that there was a large turnout in support of “a specific party — an amalgamation of Islamists and other anti-Israel groups.”

According to Netanyahu, he also issued the warning to a group of Arab supporters of Likud, in order to encourage them to go to the polls in support of the prime minister’s party.

“I wasn’t trying to suppress the vote. I was attempting to get something to counter a foreign-funded effort to get votes that are intended to topple my party,” he said.



Read more: Netanyahu backs away from rejection of two-state solution | The Times of Israel http://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-backs-away-from-rejection-of-two-state-solution/#ixzz3UsPMD2ac 
Follow us: @timesofisrael on Twitter | timesofisrael on Facebook

 

Toch overwinning voor Netanyahu

 

Zie ook op IPI: Verkiezingsuitslag Israel 2015

 

___________________

 

Toch overwinning voor Netanyahu

http://www.cidi.nl/toch-overwinning-voor-netanyahu/

 

Even leek het alsof de ‘Bibi-moeheid’ in Israel voor een politieke omslag zou zorgen, maar te elfder ure kwam Likud als ruime overwinnaar uit de stembus, bleek vanmorgen. De avond ervoor verbaasden de exit polls al: 27 zetels elk voor Likud en het Zionistisch blok, dat in de laatste peilingen juist steeg. President Rivlin, die de formateur moet voorstellen, kondigde aan voor een brede nationale regering gaan. Maar nu Likud op 29 á 30 zetels komt, bouwt Netanyahu al aan zijn volgend kabinet.

De opkomst bij de parlementsverkiezingen was ongekend hoog: bijna 72%, het hoogste sinds 1999. De nek-aan-nek-race en daarmee de kans op werkelijke politieke verandering, voor het eerst in jaren, speelde daarbij ongetwijfeld een rol. Op straat en in politieke commentaren klonk een duidelijke Bibi-moeheid door. Het zionistische blok, bestaande uit de Arbeid met Tzippi Livni van het ten dode opgeschreven partijtje Hatnua, maakte een werkelijke kans. De laatste paar opiniepeilingen wezen erop dat dit blok in de lift zat.

Arabische lijst

Bovendien wekte de uit nood gevormde Verenigde Arabische lijst veel enthousiasme bij de Arabische kiezers, die bij eerdere verkiezingen vaak niet de moeite namen te stemmen. Wat betreft die Arabische lijst was de uitslag als verwacht: dit is nu de op twee na grootste ‘partij’ met waarschijnlijk 13 zetels. Of het ook na de verkiezingen een partij blijft staat te bezien. De verenigde lijst kwam niet tot stand uit eensgezindheid, maar omdat de partijen die erin samenwerkten dreigden de verhoogde kiesdrempel niet te halen. Tenzij het nieuwe enthousiasme daar voor een omslag zorgt, zal de lijst snel uit elkaar vallen. Maar zelfs al gaat de samenwerking ook na de verkiezingen door, deze partij zal nooit zitting nemen in een regering en is dus geen factor in de ‘formatiestrijd’.

Formatie

Het Israelische parlementaire systeem lijkt bijzonder op het Nederlandse, met veel partijen waarvan niet één een meerderheid in de 120-koppige Knesset kan winnen. Als Likud en Zionisten inderdaad een gelijk aantal zetels hadden gehaald, zou Israel nu een lange en moeizame formatieperiode voor de boeg hebben, die mogelijk alsnog een kabinet-Netanyahu zou opleveren. Nu wordt algemeen de snelle formatie van een rechts kabinet voorspeld en houden commentatoren zich meer bezig met de vraag: vanwaar die plotselinge omslag die toch Netanyahu winst bezorgde, ondanks alle bedenkingen tegen zijn vorige regering?

Veiligheid is toverwoord

Het antwoord ligt voor de hand: in de allerlaatste dagen voor de verkiezingen wist Netanyahu de kiezers te mobiliseren door een campagne die slechts mikte op het Israelische toverwoord: veiligheid. Hij deed dit met twee uitspraken die woede wekten bij de meer gematigde kiezers, maar waarmee hij waarschijnlijk rechtse kiezers alsnog naar zich toe trok.

De maandag voor de verkiezingen herriep hij zijn steun voor een twee-statenoplossing door te beloven dat er geen Palestijnse staat zou komen als hij wordt herkozen. Zijn argument: iedereen die op dit moment land opgeeft aan Arabieren, brengt Isis dichter bij de Israelische grenzen. Naar het zich laat aanzien lokte hij daarmee vooral wat rechtsere kiezers weg bij Bait Yehudi van Naftali Bennett, die dit argument al langer aanvoerde en slechts ongeveer 8 zetels won.

Omstreden uitspraken

Op de verkiezingsdag zelf deed Netanyahu bovendien een oproep die hem zeer kwalijk wordt genomen: hij liet weten zeer bezorgd te zijn over de hoge opkomst onder Arabieren en riep zijn kiezers op om daarom vooral te gaan stemmen. Commentatoren noemden dit de “gevalt”- of de “iedereen-is-tegen-ons”-campagne, tegenstanders noemden het ronduit racistisch.

Deze twee uitspraken worden algemeen gezien als verkiezingsretoriek, waarop Netanyahu na de verkiezingen weer terug zou komen. Wat betreft zijn ‘Arabierenwaarschuwing’ begon hij daar al mee nadat de stembussen waren gesloten. In zijn (toen nog) voorbarige overwinningsrede beloofde hij veiligheid en welvaart te zullen brengen aan “alle burgers van Israel, Joden en niet-Joden.”

Maar dat was na het sluiten van de stembus. Intussen had hij zijn veel bekritiseerde uitspraken gedaan, en in Israel lijkt dit veel kiezers te hebben overgehaald om hun kritiek aan de kant te schuiven en te kiezen voor “veiligheid”, het Israelische toverwoord waarvan Netanyahu zich op het laatste moment meester had gemaakt.

 

woensdag 18 maart 2015

Koning Bibi en zijn verdeelde volk

 

Tegen de verwachtingen in heeft Netanyahu de verkiezingen gewonnen. In het stemhokje bleek de veiligheid wellicht toch een belangrijker onderwerp te zijn dan de economische malaise. Dat is misschien ook wel begrijpelijk, gegeven de instabiliteit in de regio. Het hemd is nader dan de rok. Verandering houdt altijd een zeker risico in, en een premier wiens nukken je kent valt dan te verkiezen boven iemand waarvan je moet afwachten hoe hij het zal doen.

 

Daarbij heeft Netanyahu in de laatste dagen een bijzonder harde campagne gevoerd en daarmee waarschijnlijk stemmen bij (extreem)rechts weggehaald. Zo heeft hij zich duidelijk tegen een tweestatenoplossing uitgesproken, voor het verder bouwen in de nederzettingen en anti-Arabisch geuit. Maar voordat er wordt geconcludeerd dat dat dus blijkbaar is wat ‘de’ kiezer wil horen, is het goed te beseffen dat net als bij ons het politieke landschap erg versnipperd is. Netanyahu heeft gezegd een coalitie te willen vormen met maar liefst 6 partijen, namelijk alle rechtse en religieuze partijen, waarmee hij op 68 van de 120 zetels uit zou komen. Al die partijen hebben hun eigen wensen en willen zich onderscheiden. Hoe met zo’n kabinet een goed, doordacht beleid kan worden gevoerd dat Israel behoedt voor alle gevaren en problemen die het op zijn weg vindt, is mij niet geheel duidelijk. Een grote coalitie zou mijn inziens de stabiliteit beter waarborgen, maar daarvoor is van beide kanten weinig animo.

 

RP

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King Bibi and his divided people

http://www.timesofisrael.com/king-bibi-and-his-divided-people/

Op-ed: Netanyahu defied all predictions and crushed all rivals en route to a spectacular victory. But how will he use his power?

  March 18, 2015, 1:36 pm

 

Most Israelis went to sleep late on Tuesday night concluding from the TV exit polls and the subsequent party leaders’ speeches that Benjamin Netanyahu had narrowly won the elections, and would almost certainly head the next government. They woke up on Wednesday morning to discover that the supposedly ultra-sophisticated surveys had failed, and that Netanyahu, far from squeaking back into office, had defeated Isaac Herzog’s Zionist Union by a margin of some six seats (with almost all votes counted), dramatically elevating Likud’s share of the 120-seat Knesset (from 18 in the outgoing parliament to 30 this time), and thus recording what by Israeli standards constitutes a crushing victory.

King Bibi had not merely managed to hold onto his crown. He had cemented his rule.

Unloved by the Obama administration, relentlessly criticized by ostensibly friendly European governments, attacked day after day by substantial sections of the Hebrew media (though not the Sheldon Adelson-owned free daily Israel Hayom), and opposed in these elections not only by the Israeli left but also by the centrist Yesh Atid (whose leader Yair Lapid vowed to “do everything in my power” to oust him), Netanyahu did not just scrape back into office. He swept his critics aside and he trounced his rivals.

Now he faces a whole other challenge.

We may never know whether Likud’s own internal polling had shown a different, far less worrying picture for Netanyahu than survey after survey had predicted in the final days of the campaign. But two weeks before the election, most published surveys put Likud and Zionist Union neck-and-neck. A week ago, they consensually had Isaac Herzog’s party three or four seats ahead of Netanyahu’s. And it was at this point that the prime minister unleashed what I called his “gevalt” gamble.

He embarked on an unprecedented round of media interviews focused on the right wing of the Israeli electorate. He warned of a “real danger” that he was going to lose power. He implored those Israelis who wanted him to stay on as prime minister to abandon the satellite right-ish parties — parties led by disgruntled men who used to work for him: Naftali Bennett’s Jewish Home, Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beytenu and Moshe Kahlon’s Kulanu. If you want me as prime minister, he intoned on TV, on radio, to print journalists, and via Facebook, then vote Likud, vote Likud, vote Likud.

On Monday, still apparently facing the prospect of defeat, he pushed still harder for those right-wing votes: He took the extreme step of reversing his previous support-in-principle for a Palestinian state, saying it just wouldn’t happen if he were re-elected.

On election day itself, he complained (inaccurately) about a high voter turnout in the Arab sector, then recalibrated that lament by saying his objection was not to the fact of Israeli citizens voting, but to the foreign funding that was purportedly transporting “anyone but Bibi” voters to the polling booths and so skewing the election outcome. Netanyahu even took on the (Arab) Supreme Court justice, Salim Joubran, who was overseeing the elections, claiming that while his rivals were being allowed to propagandize at will, only he, the prime minister, was being held to the outdated provisions of Israel’s electoral day campaigning laws. In fact, Joubran, an outspoken opponent of the legislation he was obligated to enforce, prevented the live broadcast of press conferences planned by both Netanyahu and Herzog.

Would Netanyahu have so desperately cannibalized his right-wing allies/rivals had the polls been rosier for him? Would he have whipped up such internal friction over the Arab vote? Would he have taken so emphatic a stance against Palestinian statehood? Again, we may never know. But to judge by his own statements and actions in the days before Israel voted and on polling day itself, Netanyahu was anything but confident, anything but certain of re-election.

The question now is what Netanyahu will do with what he called this victory “against all odds.” And therein lies his new challenge.

The near-final arithmetic suggests that he can muster a majority coalition composed solely of ultra-Orthodox and right-wing parties, including ex-Likud minister Kahlon’s Kulanu. The early indications are that he does not want Yesh Atid or Zionist Union in government with him, and that the feeling is mutual.

But will he now rule in the no-holds-barred spirit that carried him back into office? Will he, not without good reason, conclude that Tuesday’s vote was a firm mandate from the Israeli electorate to govern the country in the spirit of those frenzied last few days of the campaign?

Or will he seek to introduce nuance to those hardened positions, and tone down the sense of gevalt?

We’ll know soon enough.

We’ll see the specifics of his coalition. We’ll note who he chooses as his defense minister, his foreign minister, his justice minister — outspoken hawks or gentler figures? Will he push legislation that highlights the Jewish character of the state and subtly relegates its democratic nature? Will he employ healing rhetoric as regards those ostensibly over-voting Israeli Arabs? Will he address widespread domestic concerns about the high cost of living, soaring housing prices and the growing inequalities between Israel’s haves and have-nots? Will he find a path through the conflict over ultra-Orthodox military service? Will he shift to a less dogmatic position on the two-state solution, stressing that he cannot envisage Palestinian statehood in the current Middle East reality but allowing for the possibility of change? Will he move to seize the opportunities he has frequently cited to build alliances with those Arab states that share Israel’s profound concerns about Iran’s nuclear drive and the imminent US-led deal with Tehran? Will he seek to ease the strains with an Obama administration that, he believes, wanted to see the back of him?

In the past few days, Netanyahu proved himself a political tactician in a different league from his rivals. But amid the euphoria of victory, and the majority’s reaffirmation of faith in his leadership, will he take heed of the fact that a substantial proportion of the electorate is as shocked and horrified by Tuesday’s results as he and his supporters are shocked and delighted?

Will Netanyahu seek to reposition himself, in short, from defiantly victorious leader of the Israeli right to prime minister of our riven, multi-challenged Israel?



Read more: King Bibi and his divided people | The Times of Israel http://www.timesofisrael.com/king-bibi-and-his-divided-people/#ixzz3UkPiJoOQ 
Follow us: @timesofisrael on Twitter | timesofisrael on Facebook

 

Netanyahu volgens exit polls in goede positie om leiderschap Israel te houden

 

De exit polls laten een gelijk aantal zetels voor Likud en de Zionistische Unie zien, reden ovor Likoed om alvast de overwinning uit te roepen. Hoewel het allemaal nog onzeker is, is de kans op een nieuwe rechtse regering hiermee wel het grootst. Die heeft dan wel de steun van beide ultra orthodoxe partijen nodig, en zou in totaal uit 6 partijen bestaan. Het is de vraag of dat een stabiele coalitie oplevert. De andere optie is een regering van nationale eenheid. Hiertoe zal president Rivlin mogelijk oproepen, maar hij is afhankelijk van het advies dat de verschillende partijen hem geven, en bepaalt op grond daarvan wie het eerst mag proberen een coalitie te vormen.

 

RP

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Exit polls show Netanyahu well placed to retain leadership of Israel

http://www.timesofisrael.com/exit-polls-show-netanyahu-set-to-retain-leadership-of-israel/

Likud neck and neck with Zionist Union in TV surveys as voting ends, but better positioned to form the next coalition

 TIMES OF ISRAEL STAFF March 17, 2015, 10:44 pm

 

As voting ended in Israel’s Knesset elections Tuesday night, TV exit polls showed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu well placed to retain the leadership, with his Likud party neck and neck with rival Isaac Herzog’s Zionist Union, but better positioned to build a coalition.

The process of building a government, nonetheless, will depend on the final results, as well as on whom the various party leaders recommend that President Reuven Rivlin entrust with the opportunity to form a coalition.

Vote counting continues through the night, with more conclusive figures expected in the small hours.

The exit polls, conducted by Israel’s three main television stations, showed Likud at 27-28 seats and Zionist Union at 27.

Netanyahu called the result a “great victory for the Likud. A major victory for the people of Israel.”

Potential Likud ally Naftali Bennett’s right-wing Jewish Home was heading for eight-nine seats, and Avigdor Liberman’s nationalist Yisrael Beytenu was set for five seats. Together with the two ultra-Orthodox parties — Shas, which was expected to win seven seats, and the United Torah Judaism, which was heading for six-seven seats — this could give Netanyahu the firm basis for a right-wing/Orthodox coalition. Another potential coalition partner, Kulanu, led by former Likud minister Moshe Kahlon, was headed for 9-10 seats. That mix would give Netanyahu a narrow majority in the 120-seat Knesset.

On the other side of the aisle, Herzog’s natural ally, the left-wing Meretz party, was headed for five seats, while the centrist Yesh Atid was set to win 11-12 seats. Even with support inside or outside a coalition from the Arab Joint List, which looked set to score an impressive 12-13 seats, that would leave Herzog far short of a majority. Kahlon’s support, were it forthcoming, could give Herzog a blocking majority.

The election was initiated more than two years ahead of schedule by Netanyahu, who fired his finance minister Yair Lapid and justice minister Tzipi Livni in early December.

The campaign was largely seen as a referendum on the Likud leader, who is Israel’s second-longest-serving prime minister, having held the job since 2009 after a previous term in 1996-9.

It was marked by a gradual hardening of Netanyahu’s public positions on two key diplomatic-security issues: Iran’s nuclear program and peace efforts with the Palestinians. Two weeks ago, Netanyahu controversially addressed both houses of Congress in a speech lobbying against the emerging deal with Iran that is backed by US President Barack Obama. The timing and content of the address infuriated the White House and many Democrats, and rendered Israel a more partisan issue in the United States. It also divided Israelis, who largely share Netanyahu’s concerns over Iran but who were uncertain about whether the speech was worth the damage to US-Israel ties.

In a dramatic statement on Monday, meanwhile, Netanyahu flatly ruled out the establishment of a Palestinian state if he were re-elected, reversing his previous support in principle for a two-state solution. His new stance puts him at odds with much of the international community, notably including Israel’s key American ally.

As he voted on Tuesday morning, Netanyahu vowed to form “a national government” in which his key partner would be the Orthodox-nationalist Jewish Home, and said he would not form a “unity government” with Herzog.

A projected breakdown of Knesset seats based on an average of TV exit polls published Tuesday night, March 17, 2015

On election day itself, Netanyahu also repeatedly protested what he said was foreign funding that was helping to get out the Arab vote, and potentially skewing the elections. “There is nothing illegitimate with citizens voting, Jewish or Arab, as they see fit,” he said on Tuesday afternoon. “What is not legitimate is the funding — the fact that money comes from abroad from NGOs and foreign governments, brings them en masse to the ballot box in an organized fashion, in favor of the left, gives undue power to the extremist Arab list, and weakens the right bloc in such a way that we will be unable to build a government — despite the fact that most citizens of Israel support the national camp and support me as the prime minister from Likud.”

He also castigated the leader of the Joint List: “Ayman Odeh, who supports Herzog, has already said not only that I must be replaced, but that I should be put in prison for defending the citizens of Israel and the lives of IDF soldiers [during last summer’s Gaza war]…. A left government that depends on such a list will surrender at every step, on Jerusalem, the 1967 lines, on everything,” Netanyahu railed, “and therefore there’s an immense effort of leftist NGOs to mobilize voters from the left bloc, primarily in the Arab sector, and in areas where leftists vote.”

Netanyahu’s increasingly hawkish statements reflected his successful effort to dissuade right-wing Israelis from voting for parties other than Likud, as opinion polls in the run-up to Tuesday’s vote showed Herzog gradually opening a three-to-four seat lead.

The Zionist Union leader, son of the late Israeli president Chaim Herzog and the grandson of Israel’s first chief rabbi, fought a fairly effective campaign, partnering his Labor party with Livni’s Hatnua and focusing on the socioeconomic issues that are high on many Israelis’ lists of prime concerns. He blamed Netanyahu for soaring house prices and for the relatively high overall cost of living and branded Netanyahu as out of touch with the day-to-day concerns of ordinary Israelis.

Herzog also stressed the imperative of preventing Iran from attaining nuclear weapons, though he argued against Netanyahu’s speech to Congress. And he took a wary stance on the Palestinian issue — firmly backing a two-state solution, and declaring a readiness to evacuate isolated West Bank settlements, but also vowing to keep Jerusalem united and to seek sovereignty over major settlement blocs. In this respect, he reflected the stances of some of Labor’s more hawkish past leaders, such as the assassinated prime minister Yitzhak Rabin, in a bid to avoid alienating potential voters from the center of the spectrum.

dinsdag 17 maart 2015

De toestand aan de grens met Gaza 6 maanden na de oorlog

Bron: Blog Israël in de media

Hamas zegt alles herbouwd te hebben aan vechtcapaciteit.

 

Het blijft natuurlijk wrang een kop als hierboven: alles herbouwd in Gaza. Want er is niets herbouwd voor de inwoners van Gaza. Geen huizen, geen infrastructuur, scholen, ziekenhuizen etc. Sterker nog: er is geen geld voor, want van de donorgelden is maar een deel aangekomen en daarvan heeft Abbas weer de helft zelf gehouden. Qatar gaat nu voor een miljard huizen bouwen in Gaza, maar Hamas heeft heel andere prioriteiten. Hamas is klaar met de herbouw: Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigade maakte zaterdag bekend dat veel van hun bases aan de grens met Israel volledig herbouwd zijn. Het gaat om Al-Yarmouk trainingsplaatsen die ten oosten van Shujaiyya vlak bij Gazastad liggen en om plaatsen naast de plaats waar vroeger, voor de terugtrekking van Israel uit Gaza, de Israelische nederzetting Nisamit lag. Sterker nog, aan de grens met Netiv HaAzara, de grensplaats in Israel, worden nieuwe bases gebouwd die daar niet eerder waren. Er is dus al sprake van uitbreiding van bases. Hamas is niet bang, zegt het, voor een nieuwe confrontatie met de IDF. Al meteen na het staken van de vuren was Hamas aan deze herbouw begonnen.

Niet duidelijk is hoe dit zich verhoudt tot de berichten van een tijdelijk bestand, hudna, van Hamas met Israel. Er zou een bestand van minstens 5 jaar komen met een (gedeeltelijke) ophef van de blokkade van Gaza. Wit cement mag intussen Gaza al weer in. En Israel weet dat het ook voor tunnelbouw wordt gebruikt! Geen van de partijen geeft echt opening van zaken, maar de feitelijke doorvoer naar Gaza is wel duidelijk. Het kan zijn dat de verkiezingen van morgen in Israel hun stempel drukken op wat de partijen nu kwijt willen.

Toch is het opmerkelijk dat al die mensen, die zo vreselijk bezorgd om Gaza zijn, wat ook terecht is, de juiste oorzaak van hun zorgen niet melden: Dat Hamas maar met een ding bezig is: herbouw van oorlogscapaciteit ten koste van de herbouw van Gaza zelf. Of men is stekeblind, of men verkiest om stekeblind te zijn. Dat laatste is nog zorgelijker, want dat betekent dat je nooit weet hoe je de zogenaamde feiten van die bepaalde mensen moet beoordelen. Vaak betreft het hier NGO`s en mensenrechten organisaties, die kennelijk dubbele agenda`s hebben. Gevolg is, dat allerlei landen wel ruchtbaarheid geven aan die zorgen van NGO`s en compagnons, maar toch niet de hand in eigen beurs steken voor hulp. Die landen laten zich heel hypocriet uit met zorg over de toestand zoals ze die voorgeschoteld krijgen, maar zeggen niet te geven, omdat ze voor een nieuwe oorlog vrezen waarbij weer alles in puin gaat. Maar ze zeggen niet hoe het kan dat er niets herbouwd wordt in Gaza, maar er kennelijk wel geld is voor herstel van oorlogscapaciteit. Traditiegetrouw geven ze Israel van een aankomend treffen nu al de schuld, maar, zoals gezegd, stelt niemand de vraag hoe Hamas aan zoveel (nieuwe) raketten en volledige bases komt. Een failliet Hamas kan geen raketten of ander oorlogstuig bezitten en kan dus niet provoceren.

 

MS

 

 

Netanyahu blundert 2x op verkiezingsdag

 

Twee blunders in een halve dag: vanmorgen weigerde Netanyahu een interview bij Channel 10 zolang Maariv journalist Ben Caspit daarbij aanwezig was. Eerder deze week haalde hij ook al zo'n 'Poetinstreek' uit:

 

Last week Netanyahu refused to be interviewed by Channel 10 because the station would not expel Raviv Drucker, another Netanyahu nemesis, from the studio. Netanyahu was interviewed by Channel 2 and Channel 1. During his interview with Channel 2, anchor Yonit Levi asked him whether his behavior with journalists was not "a bit Putinesque."

Vandaag liet Netanyahu merken dat hij bezorgd is over het hoge aantal Arabieren dat deze keer lijkt te gaan stemmen (is dat niet juist democratie en een teken van integratie?) De Jeruzalem Post schrijft:

 

13:35 p.m. "The Right-wing controlled government is in danger," Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu posted on his Facebook page on Tuesday.  
"Arab voters are going to the vote in droves. The Left-wing organizations are bringing them to the polling stations in buses," Netanyahu wrote.

 

Een centrumlinkse regering zal Israel niet alleen een beter imago geven in het buitenland, wat doen aan de ontoelaatbare en almaar groeiende kloof tussen arm en rijk in Israel, maar ook voorkomen dat Netanyahu zich teveel als despoot zal gedragen. Na twee regeringsperiodes waarin de relatie met de VS en Europa op een dieptepunt kwam, is het hoog tijd voor verandering.

 

RP

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Netanyahu pounded for expressing worry over high Arab turnout

http://www.timesofisrael.com/ballot-stations-open-as-israelis-choose-new-leadership/

Over 37 percent of Israeli voters cast ballots by 2 p.m., a slight downturn from 2013; fraud suspected at Umm al-Fahm ballot booth; grandfather of Likud MK dies at polling station

  March 17, 2015, 7:20 am 

 

·           

 

Polling stations opened at 7 a.m. on Tuesday as Israeli citizens headed for the ballots to vote for Israel's 20th Knesset, bringing a heated campaign season to a close.

Polls from the end of last week left options open for a tight race.

Late Monday evening Zionist Union announced that co-leader Tzipi Livni is willing to forgo rotating the premiership with Isaac Herzog should the joint Labor-Hatnua list win.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Likud, vying for the role for his fourth time (third consecutively), made a last-ditch attempt over the past days to win back voters mainly from the right-wing bloc, vowing Monday night to block a Palestinian state should he remain in office.

He also criticized Zionist Union's announcement, saying it was indicative of panic.

Unlike years past, analysts have said the race between the two leading factions is too close to call with confidence, though the real drama will likely come in the next few weeks, as smaller parties make recommendations for prime minister, swaying each side's ability to form a coalition. Among the possible juggernauts are the upstart Kulanu party, the Joint List, which brought together the main Arab parties for the first time, and the ultra-Orthodox Shas party.

Exit polls are expected at 10 p.m., after which official results will begin to roll in.

The Times of Israel is bringing you updates throughout the day.

BLOG IS NOW LIVE

Auto-refresh:  

 

20:15

Voter fraud reports trickle in

At least 51 police investigations are open today over suspicions of voter fraud.

The cases include impersonating other voters, falsifying ballots and stealing party slips.

Out of nearly 800 fraud accusations made to police today, one suspect is already under arrest and 23 are being held for investigation.

In Safed, a 24-year-old resident arrives at the polling booth and discovers he is already listed as having voted.

In Umm al-Fahm, one senior polling station coordinator is arrested after he is allegedly seen placing multiple envelopes into the ballot box.

 

19:54

Arab turnout 12 points behind Jewish – report

Arab turnout as of 6 p.m. reaches 45%, according to Channel 2, over nine points behind the overall turnout — and some 12 points behind Jewish turnout.

Arab turnout, or warnings against it, form the main message on the right on Election Day.

Foreign funding and "leftist NGOs" are driving high Arab turnout in order to topple Likud, Netanyahu has warned multiple times today.

19:53

Change is coming, exults Labor MK Shaffir

Zionist Union MK Stav Shaffir sounds a decidedly optimistic tone.

"We feel the change in every ballot box that we visit, and mainly in the frightened responses of Likud," Shaffir says.

Netanyahu has warned multiple times in recent days that his Likud party was falling behind Zionist Union and could lose the election.

"Netanyahu has been in a frightful panic over the looming moment in which he will have to leave his seat, and is not above any measure or any lie or fear-mongering" to prevent that, she charges.

She slams Netanyahu's statement earlier today in which the PM warned his supporters that Arab turnout was unexpectedly high. "A prime minister who comes out against voting in democratic elections — who has heard of such a thing?"

19:34

Likud is losing, warns Netanyahu

The ruling Likud party is losing the election, Netanyahu warns.

In a press statement uploaded to his Facebook page — electioneering is forbidden in Israel's formal media outlets on Election Day — Netanyahu paints a dire picture meant to mobilize right-wing voters to the polls.

"We're in a fateful campaign. There is still a meaningful gap between Labor and Likud. The only way to shrink the gap is to go to the ballot box and vote 'Mahal,'" Netanyahu says, a reference to the letter-based symbols on Likud's election slip.

Netanyahu blames foreign government and left-wing NGOs for the left's improved showing in this election.

"The gap between Labor and Likud is based primarily on foreign funds that flow in vast quantities to leftist NGOs. Its purpose is to replace a Likud government headed by me with a left government supported by the Arab list," he says

Ayman Odeh, chair of the Arab Joint List, figures large in Netanyahu's warning to the right.

"Ayman Odeh, who supports [Zionist Union leader Isaac] Herzog, has already said not only that I must be replaced, but that I should be put in prison for defending the citizens of Israel and the lives of IDF soldiers [during last summer's Gaza war]…. A left government that depends on such a list will surrender at every step, on Jerusalem, the 1967 lines, on everything," Netanyahu rails, "and therefore there's an immense effort of leftist NGOs to mobilize voters from the left bloc, primarily in the Arab sector, and in areas where leftists vote."

Netanyahu's warnings of high Arab turnout have been roundly condemned by the left and center earlier throughout the day. He addresses the criticism in his statement.

"I want to clarify: there is nothing illegitimate with citizens voting, Jewish or Arab, as they see fit. What is not legitimate is the funding, the fact that money comes from abroad from NGOs and foreign governments, brings them en masse to the ballot box in an organized fashion, in favor of the left, gives undue power to the extremist Arab list, and weakens the right bloc in such a way that we will be unable to build a government — despite the fact that most citizens of Israel support the national camp and support me as the prime minister from Likud."

19:22

In Internet video, PM blasts broadcast restrictions

"All day politicians have been speaking in the media," Netanyahu protests.

Netanyahu had convened a press conference at the Prime Minister's Residence in Jerusalem, but Israeli media was forbidden from broadcasting his appearance. Under Israeli election law, electioneering is not allowed on Election Day.

Netanyahu protests that left-wing politicians have been appearing in the media for much of the day.

"Tzipi [Livni], Boujie [Herzog], Yair [Lapid], representatives of the left, spoke in every possible studio and conducted flagrant electioneering," he charges at the press conference, which was not broadcast in Israeli media, but a video was uploaded to Netanyahu's Facebook page.

"The 'Just not Bibi' party doesn't stop speaking in the media without anyone disturbing them. The only one they decided to prohibit from speaking in the media is me, the Likud prime minister," he charges in the most direct accusation leveled by the prime minister against Central Election Committee chairman Supreme Court Justice Salim Joubran, who made the decision to nix the broadcast.

"No one will shut us up," he vows. "In a democratic state, even a Likud prime minister has the right to say his piece."

Joubran himself has called for changing Israeli election law to lift or significantly ease the restrictions against electioneering, and has enforced the law relatively lightly over the course of the campaign. He has not initiated any cancellations of media appearances himself, but has enforced them when competing parties appealed against them. In the case of Netanyahu's Tuesday press conference, Joubran responded to appeals from Yesh Atid and Zionist Union against the conference.

Joubran also forbade the airing of a Zionist Union press conference this afternoon.

 

18:52

Voter turnout hits 54.6% at 6 p.m.

Turnout at 6 p.m. hits 54.6 percent of eligible voters, 0.9 points below the number in 2013 at that hour.

Polls close throughout the country at 10 p.m.

18:50

Far-right Yishai vows a vote for him helps PM

Eli Yishai, chairman of the far-right Yachad party, urged voters to help save his party from disappearing below the electoral threshold in the final hours of Election Day on Tuesday.

"The entire right carries the Yachad party on its shoulders. Help us ensure victory for [Benjamin] Netanyahu," Yishai said in a statement.

While Netanyahu has spent the day frantically calling on right-wing voters to vote for his Likud party, which has fallen behind the center-left Zionist Union in the last published polls on Friday, Yishai insisted that only a vote for Yachad would ensure Likud victory.

"You have to understand," Yishai told potential voters, "that without a strong Yachad Netanyahu won't have a majority [of recommendations] to the president," who, after elections, chooses which party leader to task with forming a coalition

18:07

Election Committee bars PM's press conference

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu calls a press conference for 5:45 p.m. Tuesday, just four hours before polls close on Election Day.

But the Yesh Atid and Zionist Union parties appeal to Supreme Court Justice Salim Joubran, who heads the Central Election Committee, to forbid the press conference.

Campaigning is forbidden on Election Day itself, and Joubran rules that a live press conference would constitute a campaign ad by default.

Likud has until 6:30 p.m. to appeal Joubran's decision.

18:01

Online betting sites favor Netanyahu for PM

Online betting sites show a distinctly pro-Netanyahu tilt, though the margins vary widely, according to a list compiled by Channel 2 television news.

Bettors on the Predictit site favor Netanyahu by 56 percent to 44, on the Hypermind site by 67% to 33%, and on the Predictwise predictions site by an even steeper 80% to 20%.

 

17:32

Shas sticks with supernatural campaign

The Shas campaign isn't holding back. It's pushing its greatest political asset, its followers spiritual world, to the hilt on Election Day.

We've already reported on the business-card-sized slips that purport to quote the party's deceased founder and spiritual leader Rabbi Ovadia Yosef promising that anyone who votes Shas is guaranteed entrance into heaven.

This afternoon, voters began reporting receiving text messages containing the following message:

Maran [our master] the Rabbi Ovadia Yosef: "I do not forgive anyone who does not vote Shas, neither in this world nor in the next."

17:23

'Turnout in Arab sector not so good'

Our Arab affairs reporter, Elhanan Miller, tours Arab communities in northern Israel on Election Day.

"Turnout in the Arab sector is not so good," said councillor Rawan Abu Leil, 21, from the village of Ein Mahel. "We're encouraging people to vote, no matter for what party.״

17:13

No evidence of high Arab turnout

According to Ynet and Channel 2, there is no indication that turnout in Arab communities is significantly higher than in past elections.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a statement earlier Tuesday warning right-wing voters that Arab turnout was very high.

"We're worried about high turnout in the Arab sector," a Likud campaign statement said. "Arab voters are heading en masse to the voting booth," it warned.

The statement drew condemnation from the left and center, with accusations of racism behind the warning of Arab turnout.

On Tuesday afternoon, Netanyahu's campaign issued a clarification. "What's illegitimate is not Arabs voting as such, but the huge funds from overseas from leftist NGOs and foreign governments bringing them en masse to the polling stations in an organized fashion — and thus warping the actual wishes of the electorate of Israel's citizens writ large in favor of the left."

17:06

Turnout by 4 p.m. at 45.4%

45.4% of eligible voters cast their ballots by 4 p.m., slightly less than the 46.6% measured by 4 p.m. during the 2013 election.

Turnout among IDF soldiers is nearly 3% higher for this time of day.

17:02

Bennett fears a fall to single digits

Jewish Home leader Naftali Bennett is worried that his party may end up with Knesset seats in the single digits.

Speaking to Israel National News, Bennett says, "I returned from Holon, Bat Yam, Beersheba, Kiryat Gat, Kiryat Malachi and now I'm headed for Jerusalem – the regional branches give us reports and the situation is not very good.

"There is a massive siphoning of votes from Jewish Home to Likud, including in the heart of hearts of religious Zionism — a feeling like Likud is trying to crush us," Bennett says.

"I think this will be a great mistake since a large Likud with a small Jewish Home is a very dangerous thing, and has led to the disengagement, the Hebron agreement and the Bar-Ilan speech," Bennett says.

The Jewish Home leader called on the public not to vote strategically: "I call on the public to vote from the heart, not do these calculations, because in the end it will cause us great damage.

"I feel there are a lot of votes moving from Jewish Home to Likud. Likud is anyway in very good shape and what matters is the number of people who recommend to the president" who should form the next coalition, he adds.

"We mustn't become a single-digit number [of seats in the Knesset]. I am optimistic because there are still many hours left," Bennett concludes.

 

16:42

Bedouin radio calls for liberation of Gaza

Radio stations in Tel Sheva and Rahat, two Bedouin communities in the Negev, call on residents of the area to vote for the Joint (Arab) List.

There are 93,000 eligible voters in Rahat and Tel Sheva.

More disconcertingly, the stations also air songs calling for the liberation of "Palestine," and slogans like "We have beaten the Zionist; we will raise arms to liberate the land of Gaza," Israel Radio reports.

16:37

Yachad, Shas bicker over radio stations

Eli Yishai's Yachad party filed a complaint with the Central Elections Committee against ultra-Orthodox radio station Kol Chai, while Shas filed its own complaint against the Kol Berama radio station.

Eli Yishai's call to Shas for a truce yesterday fell on deaf ears, evidently, as the few reports of irregularities involved mainly activists of these two parties.

Central Elections Committee chairman Justice Salim Joubran issued restraining orders to both radio stations mandating that they refrain from broadcasting election material, even as he noted that he was not sure broadcasts on Tuesday violated the prohibition against electioneering on Election Day.

"I listened to the programming of Kol Chai radio and did not hear material that constituted electioneering," Joubran wrote. Regarding Shas's claim, Joubran again did not say electioneering material was aired but issued the restraining order "for the possibility it may be so."

Kol Berama was initially established under sponsorship from Shas, when Ariel Atias served as communications minister. But Shas has claimed the station is biased against the party since Yachad splintered from Shas. Zvi Amar, the owner of Kol Berama, is an associate of Yishai as well as of Rabbi Meir Mazuz, the spiritual leader of Yachad, NRG reports.

 

15:43

Hadash MK visits Joint List HQ in Umm al-Fahm

MK Afu Aghbariyah (Hadash) visits the headquarters of the Joint (Arab) List in Umm al-Fahm.

"Time to let the younger generation advance," says Aghbariyah, who was placed in a honorary spot low on the list.

– Elhanan Miller

15:41

Yachimovich skewers Netanyahu

Shelly Yachimovich, No. 2 on the Zionist Union list, slams Netanyahu for his alarmist call to Likud voters regarding a high turnout in the Arab sector.

Answering a question from a voter on Facebook, Yachimovich says: "No Western leader would dare utter such a racist comment. Imagine a prime minister/president in any democracy who would warn that his rule is in jeopardy because, e.g., 'Black voters are coming in droves to the polling stations'… Horrendous, isn't it? In any case, I think what worries Bibi is that Israeli citizens are moving in droves to the ballots, and quite simply want to democratically topple him."

15:27

29% of IDF soldiers vote by 12 p.m.

29% of IDF soldiers have voted by noon, 2.8% more than during the 2013 election.

15:11

Turnout at 2 p.m. is 36.7%

36.7% of Israelis cast their ballots by 2 p.m., slightly lower than in 2013 (38.3%) but slightly higher than in 2009 (34.0%).

The Central Election Committee publicizes the voter turnout every two hours on Election Day, starting at 10 a.m.

The highest final turnout since 1973 has been 79.7%, in 1988. The lowest turnout was in 2001, 62.3%.

15:08

On way to wedding, couple votes with Yair Lapid

Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid accompanied Victoria and Gary, who are getting married today, as they went to the ballot box. The soon-to-be-married couple are both declared Yesh Atid voters.

Victoria and Gary, both 35, live in Ramat Pinkas and are getting married later today in Ness Ziona.

"It's important for us to vote for our children's future before we get married so we voted Yesh Atid. We believe that Yair Lapid and Yesh Atid is the way forward for our country," they say, according to a statement from the party.

Lapid congratulates them on their choice as well as on their nuptials: "It's so exciting that you chose to start your wedding day like this. Just before the wedding I'll be with you on your way to the voting booth, excited to meet you and happy that you are voting for Yesh Atid. A vote for us is a vote for a better future for us and for your children."

 

14:36

Tibi fires back at Netanyahu

Joint (Arab) List candidate Ahmed Tibi says "Netanyahu is panicking, inciting against Arab voters who are fulfilling their natural and democratic right like any other citizen." "Netanyahu and Likud," says Tibi, are "scared, and this is why I call on the Arab public to go out to vote in bigger numbers so that Bibi continue to panic. Change is afoot."

Netanyahu later says the problem is not Arab voting on its own but the fact that massive funds from foreign government and other sources abroad is used to drive Israeli Arabs to polling stations and "thus distorts the true will of most Israeli voters in favor of the left."

14:17

13k people share on Facebook that they voted

13,000 people share on Facebook that they have already voted, according to a Facebook graph generated in real time.

A Facebook showing the amount of people who shared on Facebook that they have voted in the Israeli elections. (photo credit: Screen Capture, Facebook)

While the number has little consequence (comprising only the voters who use Facebok and those who decided to reveal on the social media service that they have voted), it interestingly showed a consistent rise since the early morning hours but has started to gradually decline.

14:09

Police chief sees few irregularities so far

Police chief Yohanan Danino says that by 1:30 p.m. very few unusual events have been reported during the voting and adds that thousands of police officers were stationed near polling stations across the country.

Danino tells Israel Radio that when polling stations close, police cars will secure the transfer of all ballot boxes to the Central Election Committee in Jerusalem.

14:08

Head of Umm al-Fahem polling station held

The head of the Umm al-Fahem polling station committee is detained after the secretary at the station reports that he saw him inserting envelopes into the ballot box illegally.

13:36

Netanyahu nixes a newsman, again

Netanyahu for the second time in less than a week picks and chooses his journalists: the prime minister was interviewed by telephone on Channel 10 early this morning, but he demanded that Maariv reporter Ben Caspit leave the studio as a condition to giving the interview.

The management of Channel 10 decided not to cave in, but Caspit, who was a special guest on the panel of the Channel 10 morning show, voluntarily left the studio before the call started.

Caspit later tweets: "After many requests I agreed to wake up early and come to the Channel 10 studio this morning. And then it was found out that Bibi is not willing to do the interview as long as I am in the studio. It was clarified [to Netanyahu] that I will not ask any questions. He insisted, so I left."

Ben Caspit (photo credit: Yossi Zamir/Flash 90)

Caspit later tweets: "After we realized Bibi won't do the interview so long as I'm in the studio, I left of my own volition, so that the man 'strong against Hamas' will feel safe."

Guy Meroz and Orly Vilnai, the hosts of the morning show, asked Netanyahu why he refused to do the interview with Caspit present. Netanyahu said "he is not a journalist. People who badmouth me personally, badmouth my family — I do not owe them any benefits as if they are journalists."

Last week Netanyahu refused to be interviewed by Channel 10 because the station would not expel Raviv Drucker, another Netanyahu nemesis, from the studio. Netanyahu was interviewed by Channel  2 and Channel 1. During his interview with Channel 2, anchor Yonit Levi asked him whether his behavior with journalists was not "a bit Putinesque."