woensdag 10 februari 2010

Opiniepeiling 2009 Islam en Midden-Oosten (Pew Global Attitudes survey)

 
Dit is natuurlijk geen verrassing, maar laat wel zien hoe onoplosbaar de problemen zijn. Als bijna 100% van de Arabieren anti-Joods is, is het lastig om een vredesakkoord te bereiken waarbij toch een minimum aan vertrouwen nodig is.
 
Overigens zijn sommige andere uitkomsten wel (enigszins) verrassend, zoals de sterk toegenomen tegenstelling tussen Soennieten en Shi'ieten in Libanon, het afgenomen vertrouwen in Abbas en koning Abdullah van Saoedi-Arabië, en (Westerse journalisten, opgelet!) de afgenomen populariteit van Hamas onder Palestijnen, zowel op de Westoever als in de Gazastrook.
 
RP
 
Opinions of Jews
A) Favorable
(B) Unfavorable
(C) DK
-----------(A)--(B)---(C)
------------%       %         %

Egypt          2       95         3
Jordan          3       97          1
Lebanon      2      98           *
Shia             1     98            0
Sunni           1     98             0
Christian      3     97             1
Palest. ter   . 3       97          1
West Bank    3       97          *
Gaza Strip     2       97          1
Turkey            6       73      22
Israel             88      11       2
Jew                94       6        1
Arab              56      35       8
Indonesia      10      74      16
Pakistan          5       78      17
Nigeria          44      44      12
Muslim         27      60      13
Christian       60      28      11
 
Opinions of Christians
A) Favorable
(B) Unfavorable
(C) DK
-----------(A)--(B)---(C)
------------%       %         %
Egypt         51     49           1
Jordan       55     44           2
Lebanon    88     12           *
Shia           82      17           1
Sunni          85    14           0
Christian    93      6           1
Palest. ter. 55     43          2
West Bank 60    40           1
Gaza Strip  45    52           3
Turkey       10    68         23
Israel         52    44            2
Jew            49    49            2
Arab          73   20             8
Indonesia  45    43           12
Pakistan    25    61           14
Nigeria     76     21            3
Muslim     58    39            3
Christian   94      2            3
 
-------------------

The spring 2009 Pew Global Attitudes survey
http://pewglobal.org/reports/pdf/268.pdf

Growing Divide Between Lebanese Sunni and Shia

Confidence in Nasrallah
       --------------'07--'09
Shia                     82      97
Sunni                     9        2
Sunni-Shia Gap -73     -95

Confidence in Abdullah
Shia                       57        8
Sunni                     94      94
Sunni-Shia Gap  +37    +86

Favorable         2008   2009
views of Hamas    %       %
Shia                       64      91
Sunni                       9        1
Sunni-Shia Gap   -55     -90

Favorable views of the U.S.
Shia                          0        2
Sunni                      62      90
Sunni-Shia Gap   +62    +88

Views of Hamas
 -------------Fav. Unfav.   DK
--------------%       %        %
Egypt           52      44         4
Jordan          56      36       8
Lebanon       30      68       2
Shia              91       8        0
Sunni              1       97       2
Christian         9       88       2
Palest. ter.    44      52       3
West Bank   47      50       3
Gaza Strip    37      59       3
Turkey          5       69     26
Israel            4      94        3
Jew                *     99        1
Arab            21     58      21
Indonesia     31     28      40
Pakistan      14      24      62
Nigeria        34     38       28
Muslim        58     23       20


Favorability of Hamas

 ---------'08-'09  Change
                       %   %
Egypt            42   52  +10
Indonesia     23   31    +8
Lebanon      25   30    +5
Shia             64    91  +27
Sunni            9      1     -8
Christian     10      9     -1
Palest. ter.  62    44   -18
West Bank  70    47  -23
Gaza Strip   45    37    -8

Views of Hezbollah
  ------------Fav---Unfav----DK
                      %        %         %
Egypt            43       57         *
Jordan          51       45         5
Lebanon       35       64         1
Shia              97         3         0
Sunni             2         98        *
Christian      18       80        1
Palest. ter.    61       36       3
West Bank   69       29        2
Gaza Strip    44       52        4
Turkey           3       73      24
Israel             4       92       4
Jew                *       99       1
Arab             27      50      23
Indonesia     27      30      43
Pakistan       17      23      60
Nigeria         35      36      29
Muslim        59      20      20
Christian     12      50      38

Are Sunni-Shia Tensions Limited to Iraq or a More General Problem?
Asked of Muslims only
--------------------More
------------Iraq---general   DK
------------ %        %       %
Egypt          39      59         2
Jordan        41       55       4
Lebanon      5        95       *
Shia             9        91       *
Sunni           1        99        1
Palest. ter.  25      73       2
West Bank  28      70      2
Gaza Strip  18       81       1
Turkey        17       52      30
Israel          38       42      20
Indonesia     47       25      28
Pakistan      11       69      20
Nigeria        35       54      11

A Struggle Between Modernizers and Fundamentalists Asked of Muslims only.
(A)If see a struggle.
Who do you identify with? (B)Modernizers (C) Fundamentalists (D) DK

------------(A)-------(B)-----(C)-----(D)
                       %              %          %         %
Egypt             22               9        13         *
Jordan           14               7         7         *
Lebanon        55             44       10          1
Shia               42             35          6          1
Sunni             67             53          14         *
Palest. ter.    53             30          14         8
West Bank   47             26          15         7
Gaza Strip    67             41          13        12
Turkey          54             35          9         10
Indonesia      41             21          16         4
Pakistan        40             29          7          4
Nigeria          37             24          12         1


Confidence in Hezbollah Leader Nasrallah
(A) A lot/some
(B)  Not much/None
(C) DK
-----------(A)--(B)---(C)
------------%       %         %
Egypt              34       65         *
Jordan            56       44         *
Lebanon        37       62       1
Shia               97       3         0
Sunni              2        97        1
Christian      24       76        1
Palest. ter.    65      34        1
West Bank   71      28        1
Gaza Strip    49      49        1
Turkey           3        72       26
Israel             4        93        4
Jew               *        99        1
Arab             24       55       21
Indonesia     26       25       48
Pakistan      15       22       63
Nigeria       35       36       28
Muslim      59       25       17
Christian   12       48       40

Confidence in Palestinian President Abbas
(A) A lot/some
(B)  Not much/None
(C) DK
-----------(A)--(B)---(C)
------------%       %         %
Egypt          33      68         *
Jordan        33     66         1
Lebanon     27       70        4
Shia            17       77        6
Sunni          39       58        4
Christian    22       75        3
Palest. ter. 52      47        1
West Bank 52      46        2
Gaza Strip  51      48        1
Turkey        13       61       27
Israel           4        94        2
Jew              2        97        1
Arab           18       74        9
Indonesia   39       21       39
Pakistan     24       18       59
Nigeria      40       39       22
Muslim     56       28       17
Christian   22       51       27

Where Confidence in Abbas Decreased
% a lot/some confidence
(A) 2007
(B) 2009
(C) Change
-----------(A)--(B)---(C)
------------%       %
Egypt            67       33      -34
Jordan          53       33      -20
Indonesia     53       39      -14
Pakistan       36       24      -12
Turkey         18       13       -5
Israel             9        4        -5
Palest. ter.   56      52       -4
Gaza Strip   69      51      -18
West Bank   51      52       +1

Confidence in Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu
(A) A lot/some
(B)  Not much/None
(C) DK
-----------(A)--(B)---(C)
------------%       %         %

Egypt           8       93         *
Jordan         4       95         *
Lebanon      1       98         1
Shia             2       98        0
Sunni           *       99        *
Christian     0       99        1
Palest. ter.  2       97        1
West Bank  2       97        1
Gaza Strip   *      97         2
Turkey         1      76       22
Israel          55       44        1
Jew             63       38        *
Arab            11       82        8
Indonesia    14       53       33
Pakistan       1        40       59
Nigeria       39       41       19
Muslim      27       56       17
Christian    51       26       22


Confidence in Saudi King Abdullah
A) A lot/some
(B)  Not much/None
(C) DK
-----------(A)--(B)---(C)
------------%       %         %
Egypt         83     17         *
Jordan       92       9         *
Lebanon    55       44        1
Shia             8        92        0
Sunni          94       6         0
Christian    57       42        2
Palest. ter.  38      61        2
West Bank  35      63        1
Gaza Strip   44      55        2
Turkey        8        65       28
Israel         11       85        4
Jew             7        90        3
Arab          32       58       10
Indonesia  61     15       23
Pakistan   64       7        29
Nigeria     55       25       20
Muslim      78       10       12
Christian   33       40       27

Where Confidence in Abdullah Decreased
% a lot/some confidence
(A) 2007
(B) 2009
(C) Change
-----------(A)--(B)---(C)
------------%       %

Lebanon 79        55     -24
Shia       57          8      -49
Christian 84       57      -27
Sunni      94       94         0
Palest. ter.52     38      -14
Gaza Strip 66    44      -22
West Ban  46    35      -11
Turkey      17     8         -9
Pakistan  70     64         -6
Egypt      88     83         -5


Views of Afghan President Karzai
(A) A lot/some
(B)  Not much/None
(C) DK
-----------(A)--(B)---(C)
------------%       %         %
Egypt        17      80          3
Jordan      18      75          9
Lebanon     7      69        24
Palest. ter.16      73        11
Turkey        7     64        29
Israel          2     90          8
Indonesia 27      23        49
Pakistan  10      38         52
Nigeria   36      43          21


Views of Iranian President Ahmadinejad
(A) A lot/some
(B)  Not much/None
(C) DK
-----------(A)--(B)---(C)
------------%       %         %
Egypt        26       74         1
Jordan       32      68          *
Lebanon    32      68          *
Palest. ter. 45      51           4
Turkey      17      59         24
Israel          3      94           3
Indonesia 43      25          32
Pakistan   37     17           46
Nigeria    39      45          17

Confidence in Osama bin Laden
(A) A lot/some
(B)  Not much/None
(C) DK
-----------(A)--(B)---(C)
------------%       %         %
Egypt          23       68         9
Jordan         28      61       12
Lebanon       2       98        1
Shia              2       98        *
Sunni            5       94     *
Christian      0       99      2
Palest. ter.  1      47        2
West Bank   51      48        2
Gaza Strip  53      44        3
Turkey         3        77       22
Israel           3        95        2
Jew               1        99        *
Arab             14      72         15
Indonesia     24       53       23
Pakistan      18       47       35
Nigeria        32       60        8
Muslim      54       39        7
Christian   10       80        9

Opinions of Jews
A) Favorable
(B) Unfavorable
(C) DK
-----------(A)--(B)---(C)
------------%       %         %

Egypt          2       95         3
Jordan          3       97          1
Lebanon      2      98           *
Shia             1     98            0
Sunni           1     98             0
Christian      3     97             1
Palest. ter   . 3       97          1
West Bank    3       97          *
Gaza Strip     2       97          1
Turkey            6       73      22
Israel             88      11       2
Jew                94       6        1
Arab              56      35       8
Indonesia      10      74      16
Pakistan          5       78      17
Nigeria          44      44      12
Muslim         27      60      13
Christian       60      28      11

Opinions of Christians
A) Favorable
(B) Unfavorable
(C) DK
-----------(A)--(B)---(C)
------------%       %           %
Egypt        51      49            1
Jordan      55      44            2
Lebanon   88      12            *
Shia           82      17            1
Sunni         85     14            0
Christian   93       6            1
Palest. ter. 55    43            2
West Bank 60   40            1
Gaza Strip  45   52            3
Turkey       10   68          23
Israel         52    44            2
Jew            49    49            2
Arab          73   20             8
Indonesia  45    43           12
Pakistan    25    61           14
Nigeria     76     21              3
Muslim     58    39              3
Christian   94      2              3


The spring 2009 Pew Global Attitudes survey included 25 nations from around the world. This report focuses on results from the nine nations listed below. Results for the surveys in these nations are based on face-to-face interviews conducted under the direction of Princeton Survey Research Associates International.  All  surveys are based on national samples except in  Pakistan where the sample  was disproportionately urban.

The table below shows the margin of sampling error based on all interviews conducted in that country. For results based on the full sample in a given country, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus the margin of error. In addition to sampling error, one should  bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.


Country:                Egypt
Sample design:     Probability
Mode:                    Face-to-face adults 18 plus
Languages:           Arabic
Fieldwork dates:  May 24 - June 11, 2009
Sample size:           1,000
Margin of Error:  3% Representative:   Adult population

Country:                Indonesia
Sample design:     Probability
Mode:                    Face-to-face adults 18 plus Languages:
Bahasa Indonesia Fieldwork dates:  May 29 - June 5, 2009
Sample size:           1,000
Margin of Error:  3%
Representative:     Adult population excluding Papua and remote areas or provinces with small populations (excludes 12% of population)

Country:                Israel
Sample design:     Probability with Arab oversample
Mode:                   Face-to-face adults 18 plus
Languages:            Hebrew, Arabic
Fieldwork dates:  May 18 - June 16, 2009
Sample size:           1,201 including an oversample of Arabs that brought the total number of Arab respondents to 527, the sample is weighted to be representative of the general population
Margin of Error:  3% Representative:   Adult population

Country:                Jordan
Sample design:     Probability
Mode:                    Face-to-face adults 18 plus
Languages:           Arabic
Fieldwork dates:  May 24 - June 11, 2009
Sample size:          1,000
Margin of Error:  3% Representative:   Adult population

Country:                Lebanon
Sample design:     Probability
Mode:                    Face-to-face adults 18 plus
Languages:           Arabic
Fieldwork dates:  May 20 - June 3, 2009
Sample size:          1,000
Margin of Error:  3% Representative:   Adult population

Country:                Nigeria
Sample design:     Probability
Mode:                    Face-to-face adults 18 plus
Languages:           Hausa, Yoruba, Igbo, English, other local languages
Fieldwork dates:  June 2-14, 2009
Sample size:          1,000
Margin of Error:  3% Representative:   Adult population

Country:                Pakistan
Sample design:     Probability
Mode:                    Face-to-face adults 18 plus
Languages:           Urdu, Punjabi, Sindhi, Pashto, Sariki, Hindko, Balochi
Fieldwork dates:  May 22 - June 9, 2009
Sample size:           1,254
Margin of Error:  3%
Representative:   Disproportionately urban, excluding areas of instability particularly in the North West Frontier and Baluchistan (the sample is 55% urban, Pakistan's population is 33% urban). All four provinces of Pakistan are included in sample design. Towns and villages were under-represented.
Sample covers roughly 90% of the adult population.

Country:                Palestinian territories
Sample design:     Probability
Mode:                    Face-to-face adults 18 plus
Languages:           Arabic
Fieldwork dates:  May 23 - June 11, 2009
Sample size:           1,204
Margin of Error:  3% Representative:   Adult population

Country:                Turkey
Sample design:     Probability
Mode:                    Face-to-face adults 18 plus
Languages:           Turkish, Kurdish
Fieldwork dates:  May 20 - June 15, 2009
Sample size:           1,005
Margin of Error:  3% Representative:   Adult population


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Website:
www.imra.org.il

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