De analyse van de Jerusalem Post over Hezbollah:
It is important to understand why Nasrallah is so concerned with the findings of the Hague-based tribunal, mainly because if Hizbullah is found guilty, as expected, of assassinating Hariri then this would contradict the image it has tried to create over the years as being the defender of Lebanon. If it was defending Lebanon, why did it assassinate the country's prime minister?
Hezbollah wilde Libanon nooit verdedigen, maar het islamiseren en onder de invloedssfeer van Iran brengen. Opvallend is dat de Jpost opmerkt dat de relaties tussen Hezbollah en Iran zijn verslechterd, omdat Iran haar jaarlijke budget voor Hezbollah heeft gekort en omdat er problemen zijn met de nieuwe verantwoordelijke vanuit de Revoltionaire Garde. Het zou goed kunnen dat Iran zijn macht wil uitbreiden terwijl Hezbollah liefst zo autonoom mogelijk reageert.
Hezbollah wilde Libanon nooit verdedigen, maar het islamiseren en onder de invloedssfeer van Iran brengen. Opvallend is dat de Jpost opmerkt dat de relaties tussen Hezbollah en Iran zijn verslechterd, omdat Iran haar jaarlijke budget voor Hezbollah heeft gekort en omdat er problemen zijn met de nieuwe verantwoordelijke vanuit de Revoltionaire Garde. Het zou goed kunnen dat Iran zijn macht wil uitbreiden terwijl Hezbollah liefst zo autonoom mogelijk reageert.
RP
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Analysis: Israel needs to be concerned
Hizbullah's decision to topple the Lebanese government was exactly what OC Northern Command Maj.-Gen. Gadi Eizenkot expected would happen with the completion of the United Nations probe into the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Harir.
While such a move means political instability in Beirut in the immediate term, this does not mean that Eizenkot can rest with the IDF concerned that political deadlock in Lebanon could potentially lead to violence along the border with Israel.
In recent weeks, senior intelligence officers voiced minimal concern with the possibility that Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, fearing the repercussions of Hizbullah being blamed for the Hariri assassination, would decide to attack Israel to divert attention away from the tribunal.
It is no secret that Hizbullah has superior military capabilities and better trained soldiers than the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), which means that if it wants to Hizbullah could take over all of Lebanon, likely within a matter of days. If it decides to take to the streets and attempt a coup, a civil war would erupt which could potentially lead to a war with Israel as well.While such a move means political instability in Beirut in the immediate term, this does not mean that Eizenkot can rest with the IDF concerned that political deadlock in Lebanon could potentially lead to violence along the border with Israel.
In recent weeks, senior intelligence officers voiced minimal concern with the possibility that Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, fearing the repercussions of Hizbullah being blamed for the Hariri assassination, would decide to attack Israel to divert attention away from the tribunal.
While some government intelligence analysts believe that taking over Lebanon is Nasrallah's ultimate objective, it is not clear that he is ready for such a move. Today, he gets to enjoy both worlds – be part of the political system and at the same time build up an illegal militia that is stronger than the country's own military.
It is important to understand why Nasrallah is so concerned with the findings of the Hague-based tribunal, mainly because if Hizbullah is found guilty, as expected, of assassinating Hariri then this would contradict the image it has tried to create over the years as being the defender of Lebanon. If it was defending Lebanon, why did it assassinate the country's prime minister?
The problem for Hizbullah is that toppling the Lebanese government does not ensure that this image will be retained. What it is trying to do is force the current prime minister Saad Hariri to denounce the tribunal's findings and clear Hizbullah's name.
The other problem is that the tribunal's expected announcement comes at a time when Hizbullah-Iranian relations are a new low. Iran has cut the annual budget it provides Hizbullah by over 40 percent and tensions are running high between the top Hizbullah leadership and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps officer who was appointed earlier this year to oversee Hizbullah operations on behalf of the Islamic Republic.
Israel will in the meantime continue watching Lebanon from afar but this time its eyes will not just be on the weapons shipments that cross from Syria into the Beka Valley. It will also be keeping close tabs on Beirut where political chaos is currently prevailing.
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