donderdag 18 maart 2010

Obama wil andere regeringscoalitie in Israel afdwingen - met Kadima

Kadima heeft meer zetels dan Shas en Liebermans Yisrael Beiteinu bij elkaar, en een coalitiewissel zoals hieronder voorgesteld zou een soort paars kabinet opleveren zonder religieuze en radikale partijen. Dat lijkt me een gezonde situatie voor Israel, zoals ook in Nederland paars een heilzame werking had. Zoals hier het CDA, zaten in Israel het (weliswaar kleinere) Shas en andere orthodox-religieuze partijen altijd op de wip, omdat zonder hen geen meerderheid te vormen was. Als de coalitie breekt, hoop ik met Jeffrey Goldberg dat Tzipi Livni ervoor gaat. Nog afgezien van het vredesproces, zou zo'n coalitie op allerlei andere terreinen ook goede vooruitgang kunnen boeken.
What Obama is Actually Trying to Do in Israel
Jeffrey Goldberg
Mar 16 2010, 11:07 AM ET
There is much speculation that this kerfluffle over 1,600 theoretical apartments on the wrong side of the green line in Jerusalem will lead to a rupture in American-Israeli relations, but analysts who suggest this are missing the point of President Obama's maneuverings. I've been on the phone with many of the usual suspects (White House and otherwise), and I think it's fair to say that Obama is not trying to destroy America's relations with Israel; he's trying to organize Tzipi Livni's campaign for prime minister, or at least for her inclusion in a broad-based centrist government.  I'm not actually suggesting that the White House is directly meddling in internal Israeli politics, but it's clear to everyone -- at the White House, at the State Department, at Goldblog -- that no progress will be made on any front if Avigdor Lieberman's far-right party, Yisrael Beiteinu, and Eli Yishai's fundamentalist Shas Party, remain in Netanyahu's surpassingly fragile coalition.

So what is the goal? The goal is force a rupture in the governing coalition that will make it necessary for Netanyahu to take into his government Livni's centrist Kadima Party (he has already tried to do this, but too much on his terms) and form a broad, 68-seat majority in Knesset that does not have to rely on gangsters, messianists and medievalists for votes. It's up to Livni, of course, to recognize that it is in Israel's best interests to join a government with Netanyahu and Barak, and I, for one, hope she puts the interests of Israel ahead of her own ambitions.

Obama knows that this sort of stable, centrist coalition is the key to success. He would rather, I understand, not have to deal with Netanyahu at all -- people near the President say that, for one thing, Obama doesn't think that Netanyahu is very bright, and there is no chemistry at all between the two men -- but he'd rather have a Netanyahu who is being pressured from his left than a Netanyahu who is being pressured from the right.

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