Palestijnse steun voor staat op Westoever & Gaza betekent geen acceptie van Israel

 

Een Palestijnse staat nastreven binnen de bestandslijnen van 1949 is heel wat anders dan Israel erkennen, is mij al meermaals opgevallen, maar vaak wordt door de media, politici en mensenrechtenactivisten het feit dat Palestijnen spreken van pre-1967 grenzen als bewijs van erkenning van Israel beschouwd. Zoals blijkt uit onderstaande reactie van de directeur van het onderzoekscentrum van An-Najah universiteit in Nabloes (dat geregeld enquetes houdt), mogen we inderdaad uit het één niet het ander afleiden.

 

RP

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Palestinian pollster to IMRA: Palestinian support for state in '67 territories doesn't mean accept Israeli state

 

Dr. Aaron Lerner  - IMRA

6 November 2008

 

At the request of an Israeli radio station, IMRA contacted today the An-Najah National University Center for Opinion Polls and Survey Studies with the following question relating to a poll they carried out 18-20 September 2008 (poll repeated below):

Dear Sirs,

I was interested in knowing your interpretation as to how can the same poll have these two results?

Do you support or reject the creation of two states on the historic land of Palestine (a Palestinian state and Israel)?
 42.5% I support
 54.3% I reject
 3.2% No opinion/I do not know

Do you support or reject the creation of a Palestinian state on the 1967 occupied territories?
 67.1% I support
 29.6% I reject
 3.4% No opinion/I do not know

Best regards,
Dr. Aaron Lerner - IMRA  www.imra.org.il

The following is the reply:

Dear Dr. Lerner;

Thank you for your e-mail. The result you asked about is correct, in my experience many people support to create a Palestinian state on 1967 territories, but when you asked them about Israel they rejected due to many different factors, one of it they oppose Israel' existence, and you find this among Hamas supporter for example according to Poll No. 35 that 72.4% of Hamas supporters reject the creation of two state on the historic land of Palestine (a Palestinian state and Israel), and 52.6% of Hamas supporters reject of a Palestinian state on the 1967 occupied territories , thus, you found a gap between the two questions.

 

According to your question 53.4% of Gazans want to emigrate, yes this result is true, because of a difficult socio-economic and political situations in Gaza Strip in these days.

 

Best wishes

Dr. Hussein Ahmad
Director, Opinion Polls and Survey Studies Center
An-Najah National University
Nablus

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Van: dinsdag 23 september 2008

Palestijnse opiniepeiling: krap helft voor voortzetten vredesonderhandelingen

An-Najah National University
Center for Opinion Polls and Survey Studies
Tel: (972) (9) 2345113 / Fax: (972)(9) 2345982
Nablus - Palestinian: P.O.Box 7, 707
Email: Polls@najah.edu hussein596@yahoo.com

Results of Palestinian Public Opinion Poll
No. 35 18-20 September 2008

 

Background

 

The Palestinian political realities are still suffering from a sate of division between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip and the division is intensified by a verbal conflict that escalates with the approaching end of President Mahmoud Abbas's term. Several legal councilors and advisors assert that the President's term ends simultaneously with the term of the PLC in January 2010. Others, however, say that the President's term ends in January of 2009

 

On the other side of the Palestinian scene, Palestinian Israeli negotiations are stand still; they do not show any progress. More than one Palestinian official declared that the negotiations are not going to lead to the creation of a Palestinian state by the end of this year as envisioned by the United States and other participants in these negotiations.

 

As for the truce (hudna) in the Gaza Strip between Hamas and the Israeli Government, all parties are still satisfied with their commitment to the conditions of the truce. Some evasions of ceasefire occur every now and then and several Palestinian factions in the Strip declared more than once that the truce is fragile and that Israel is not committed to its terms and conditions.

 

The Results

 

Following are the results of the Palestinian Public Opinion Poll No. 35 conducted by the Center for Opinion Polls and Survey Studies at An-Najah National University during the period from 18-20 September 2008. The University sponsors all polls conducted by its Center.

 

Palestinian public opinion poll no. 35 undertakes the current political realities especially the Palestinian presidential and, PLC elections, the truce (hudna) between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, the peace negotiations, the suggested Arab troops, the attempts for reconciliations between Fateh and Hamas in addition to political affiliations and other issues.

 

The sample included 1360 persons whose age group is 18 and above and who have the right to vote. The enclosed questionnaire was distributed on 860 persons from the West Bank and 500 persons from the Gaza Strip. The sample was drawn randomly and the margin of error is about ±3%; still 3.8% of the members of the sample refused to answer the questionnaire.

 

_____________________________________________________________________

 

The opinions represented in the results reflect those of the study; they do not, by any means, represent the opinion of An-Najah National University.

 

The General Results:

61.1% of respondents supported dissolving the PLC; 29.6% rejected.

20.1% of respondents supported conducting presidential elections at the end of the current President's term; 77.5% rejected

50.7% of respondents supported continuing negotiations under their present conditions between the Palestinian Authority and Israel.

18.4% of respondents believed that the present PLC members are performing their duties as required of them.

42.4% of respondents supported allowing Arab troops to enter the Gaza Strip.

52.7% of respondents supported the position of Palestinian factions who oppose allowing Arab troops to enter the West Bank.

30.1% of respondents supported allowing Arab troops to enter the West Bank.

27.4% of respondents supported allowing Arab troops to enter the West Bank and the Gaza Strip simultaneously.

71.5% of respondents supported the truce (hudna) between Hamas and Israel by which Hamas stops firing rockets against Israel and, in return, Israel stops its military operations in the Gaza Strip.

37.1% of respondents believed that if Hamas accepts a truce with Israel, it would mean a retreat from the armed struggle option.

40.4% of respondents believed that the Palestinian factions in the Gaza Strip accepted willingly the truce that Hamas declared.

48.8% of respondents believed that the truce between Hamas and Israel is an introduction to direct negotiations on the future of the Gaza Strip

54.9% of respondents believed that Fateh Movement is serious in its call for a comprehensive national reconciliation

39.2% of respondents believed that Hamas Movement is serious in its call for a comprehensive national reconciliation

58.2% of respondents believed that the Palestinian public are ready to bring a national reconciliation to a success.

51.8% of respondents believed that the Palestinian leaderships of all factions are serious in their intentions to bring a national reconciliation to a success.

54.9% of respondents believed that the Palestinian Presidency is serious in its call for a national reconciliation.

36.5% of respondents believed that the Arab attempts towards making a reconciliation between Fateh and Hamas will succeed.

27.6% of respondents supported the suggestion that calls for the formation of a Hashemite Jordanian-Palestinian kingdom.

41.7% of respondents supported dissolving the Palestinian Authority.

22.6% of respondents believed that Hamas is the responsible party before Palestinians for the on-going internal division; 14.6% believed that Fateh is the responsible party while 52% believed that some persons inside the two movements are responsible.

42.5% of respondents supported the creation of two states on the land of historic Palestine (a Palestinian state and Israel).

67.1% of respondents supported the creation of a Palestinian state on the 1967 occupied Palestinian territories.

36% of respondents believed that the negotiations that President Mahmoud Abbas conducts will lead to the creation of a Palestinian state on the 1967 occupied territories.

32.9% of respondents believed that Palestinian resistance in its present shape will lead to the creation of a Palestinian state on the 1967 occupied territories.

61.2% of respondents assessed the performance of the Palestinian Presidency at the present time as "good".

Regardless of legitimacy or illegitimacy, 57.3% of respondent supported the general policy of the care-taker government of Salam Fayyad.

Regardless of legitimacy or illegitimacy, 29% of respondents supported the general policy of the dissolved government of Ismael Haniyeh.

58.6% of respondents assessed the performance of the care-taker government of Salam Fayyad as "good".

29.4% of respondents assessed the performance of the dissolved government of Ismael Haniyeh as "good".

76.9% of respondents said that they will participate in the coming presidential elections. From among those who said they will participate, 38.5% said that they will give their votes to Fateh's candidate; 17.4% said they will give their votes to Hamas' candidate.

78.1% of respondents said that they will participate in the coming legislative elections. From among those who said they will participate, 37.9% said that they will give their votes to Fateh's candidates; 17.7% said they will give their votes to Hamas' candidates.

If PLC elections are to be conducted, 42.9% of respondents expected the winning of Fateh movement; 17.2% expected the winning of Hamas.

78.2% of respondents supported the formation of a transitional government whose aim will be to prepare for and supervise Presidential and PLC elections

61% of respondents believed that the Palestinian security forces are capable of imposing order and the rule of law on the areas in which they were redeployed.

71.3% of respondents supported the notion that Palestinian arms must only be in the hands of the Palestinian security apparatuses.

52.7% of respondents expressed fear for their lives under the present circumstances.

37.2% of respondents said that the current security, political and economic conditions will drive them to emigrate.

61.2% of respondents said that they are pessimistic of the general Palestinian situation at this stage.

77% of respondents said that they neither feel safe for themselves nor for their families and properties under the current circumstances.

 

As for political affiliation respondents gave the following results:

 People's Party 0.7%
 Democratic Front 1.0%
 Islamic Jihad 2.1%
 Fateh 36.0%
 Hamas 14.4%
 Fida 0.1%
 Popular Front 3.5%
 Palestinian National Initiative 0.7%
 I am an independent nationalist 6.7%
 I am an independent Islamist 2.9%
 None of the above 30.8%
 Others 1.0%


The General Results of the Poll

Do you support or reject dissolving the PLC?
23.2% I strongly support
37.9% I support
23.4% I reject
6.2% I strongly reject
6.3% No opinion/I do not know

Do you support or reject conducting new Presidential elections by the end of the current president's term
14.0% I strongly support
6.1% I support
26.8% I reject
50.7% I strongly reject
2.5% No opinion/I do not know

Do you support or reject continuing negotiations under their present realities between the Palestinian Authority and Israel?
13.5% I strongly support
37.1% I support
33.4% I reject
13.5% I strongly reject
2.4% No opinion/I do not know

Do you think that the current PLC members are performing their duties as required of them?
18.4% Yes
70.4% No
11.3% No opinion/I do not know

Do you support or reject bringing Arab troops to the Gaza Strip?
12.8% I strongly support
29.6% I support
33.7% I reject
21.1% I strongly reject
2.8% No opinion/I do not know

Do you support or reject the position of Palestinian factions that oppose bringing Arab troops to the Gaza Strip?
17.4% I strongly support
35.3% I support
34.6% I reject
8.0% I strongly reject
4.7% No opinion/I do not know

Do you support or reject bringing Arab troops to the West Bank?
9.0% I strongly support
21.1% I support
45.7% I reject
21.0% I strongly reject
3.2% No opinion/I do not know

Do you support or reject sending Arab troops to the West Bank and the Gaza Strip simultaneously?
27.4% Yes
67.4% No
5.2% No opinion/I do not know

Hamas movement and Israel declared a truce in the Gaza Strip by which Hamas stops firing rockets against Israel and, in return, Israel stops its military operations in the Gaza Strip. Do you support or reject  this truce?
19.2% I strongly support
52.3% I support
17.8% I reject
8.5% I strongly reject
2.3% No opinion/I do not know

Do you think that by accepting the truce Hamas is retreating from the armed struggle option?
37.1% Yes
55.9% No
7.0% No opinion/I do not know

Do you think that the Palestinian factions in the Gaza Strip agreed willingly on the truce that Hamas declared?
40.4% They agreed willingly
39.9% They agreed under some pressure from Hamas
2.6% Other
17.1% No opinion/I do not know

Do you think that the truce between Hamas and Israel is an introduction to direct negotiations on the future of the Gaza Strip?
48.8% Yes
40.7% No
10.5% No opinion/I do not know

Do you think that Fateh movement is serious in its call for a comprehensive national reconciliation?
54.9% Yes
38.8% No
6.3% No opinion/I do not know

Do you think that Hamas movement is serious in its call for a comprehensive national reconciliation?
39.2% Yes
52.0% No
8.8% No opinion/I do not know

Do you think that the Palestinian public are ready to bring a national reconciliation to a success?
58.2% Yes
35.4% No
6.4% No opinion/I do not know

Do you think that the leaders of all Palestinian factions are really concerned with a successful national reconciliation?
51.8% Yes
39.9% No
8.2% No opinion/I do not know

Do you think that the Palestinian Presidency is serious in its call for a comprehensive national reconciliation?
54.9% Yes
37.5% No
7.6% No opinion/I do not know

There are several Arab attempts made towards achieving a reconciliation between Fateh and Hamas. Do you think that these attempts will succeed?
36.5% Yes
50.8% No
12.7% No opinion/I do not know

There has been a media proposition lately referring to the formation of a Hashemite Jordanian-Palestinian kingdom. Do you support or reject such proposition?
9.7% I strongly support
17.9% I support
34.0% I reject
32.8% I strongly reject
5.6% No opinion/I do not know

Do you support or reject dissolving the Palestinian Authority?
13.4% I strongly support
28.3% I support
37.6% I reject
16.5% I strongly reject
4.2% No opinion/I do not know

Who in your opinion from among Palestinians is responsible for the on-going internal Palestinian division?
14.6% Fateh movement
22.6% Hamas movement
52.0% Some persons from both movements
4.2% Other (specify)
6.6% No opinion/I do not know

Do you support or reject the creation of two states on the historic land of Palestine (a Palestinian state and Israel)?
42.5% I support
54.3% I reject
3.2% No opinion/I do not know

Do you support or reject the creation of a Palestinian state on the 1967 occupied territories?
67.1% I support
29.6% I reject
3.4% No opinion/I do not know

Do you think that the negotiations that President Mahmoud Abbas is conducting will lead to the creation of a Palestinian state on the 1967 occupied territories?
36.0% Yes
53.7% No
10.3% No opinion/I do not know

Do you think that the Palestinian resistance in its present form will lead to the creation of a Palestinian state on the 1967 occupied territories?
32.9% Yes
59.0% No
8.2% No opinion/I do not know

How do you assess the performance of the Palestinian Presidency at the present time?
61.2% Good
31.8% Bad
7.1% No opinion/I do not know

Regardless of its legitimacy or illegitimacy, do you support or reject the general policy of the Palestinian government led by Salam Fayyad?
57.3% I support
32.3% I reject
10.4% No opinion/I do not know

Regardless of its legitimacy or illegitimacy, do you support or reject the general policy of the dissolved government of Ismael Haniyeh?
29.0% I support
61.0% I reject
10.0% No opinion/I do not know

How do you assess the performance of Salam Fayyad's care-taker government?
58.6% Good
30.4% Bad
11.0% No opinion/I do not know

How do you assess the performance of Ismael Haniyeh's dissolved government?
29.4% Good
58.1% Bad
12.5% No opinion/I do not know

If presidential elections are held in the present time, to whom from among the following do you give your vote?
7.3% An independent candidate
2.8% A candidate from the left
13.4% A candidate from Hamas
29.6% A candidate from Fateh
6.0% A national independent candidate
3.7% An Islamic independent candidate
23.1% I will not participate in the elections
14.1% I have not decided yet

If new PLC elections are conducted, whom do you vote for?
6.1% An independent ticket
3.1% A ticket from the left
13.8% A ticket from Hamas
29.6% A ticket from Fateh
6.0% A national independent ticket
4.6% An Islamic independent ticket
21.9% I will not participate in the elections
14.9% I have not decided yet

If new legislative elections were to be held today, which of the following would win?
5.5% Independent Islamists bloc
7.9% Independent Nationalist bloc
42.9% Fateh bloc
17.2% Hamas bloc
2.0% A bloc from leftist organizations
24.5% No opinion/I do not know

Are you in favor of forming a transitional government for the purpose of preparing  for and supervising new presidential and PLC elections?
78.2% Yes
15.2% No
6.6% No opinion/I do not know

Do you think that the Palestinian security forces are capable of imposing law and order on the areas in which they were redeployed?
61.0% Yes
34.0% No
5.1% No opinion/I do not know

Do you support or reject the notion that Palestinian arms should be in the hands of Palestinian security apparatuses, and that any other arms in the hands of other Palestinian men will be considered arms for racketeering business?
71.3% I support
25.4% I reject
3.2% No opinion/I do not know

Are you worried about your life under the present circumstances?
52.7% Yes
46.1% No
1.2% No opinion/I do not know

Do the current security, political and economic circumstances urge you to emigrate?
37.2% Yes
62.0% No
0.8% No opinion/I do not know

Do the current security, political and economic circumstances urge you to emigrate?
West Bank
27.8% Yes
72.0% No
0.2% No opinion/I do not know

Gaza Strip
Do the current security, political and economic circumstances urge you to emigrate?
53.4% Yes
44.8% No
1.8% No opinion/I do not know

Are you pessimistic or optimistic towards the general Palestinian situation at this stage?
35.8% Optimistic
61.2% Pessimistic
3.0% No opinion/I do not know

Under the present circumstances, do you feel that you, your family and your properties are safe?
22.2% Yes
32.4% May be
44.6% No
0.8% No opinion/I do not know

Which of the following political affiliations do you support?

0.7% People's Party
1.0% Democratic Front
2.1% Islamic Jihad
36.0% Fateh
14.4% Hamas
0.1% Fida
3.5% Popular Front
0.7% Palestinian National Initiative
6.7% I am an independent nationalist
2.9% I am an independent Islamist
30.8% None of the above


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IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis
Website: www.imra.org.il