woensdag 5 november 2008

Enquete onder Palestijnen: meerderheid tegen uitruil van land en tegen uitstel akkoord Jeruzalem en vluchtelingen

Volgens deze enquete is een grote meerderheid van de Palestijnen tegen een 1 op 1 landruil van maximaal 3%, zoals bijvoorbeeld voorgesteld in het Geneefse Akkoord. Daar staat tegenover dat bijna 40% ervoor is dat de Palestijnse vluchtelingen in de Palestijnse staat worden opgenomen tegenover bijna 30% die meent dat ze allemaal naar Israel moeten kunen terugkeren. Er werd niet gevraagd hoeveel procent voor een Palestijnse staat naast Israel binnen de pre-1967 bestandslijnen is, en hoeveel procent meent dat Israel het nationale thuisland is voor de Joden zoals Palestina dat voor de Palestijnen zal zijn.


Executive Summary
Alpha International
Phone:  +972 2 298 7278
Fax: +972 2 298 8690

The results of the study, prepared by Alpha international regarding the political situation in the Palestinian territories, showed that 73,3% of those surveyed support the dissolution of the current legislative council and conducting new presidential elections in the beginning of 2009 , where 20,9% oppose and 5,8 % said don't know/no opinion. Results showed that if legislative elections are to take place currently using proportional representation based on Quota and the following are nominated: Fateh, Hamas, the national front, the national initiative, the third road, the coalition of other democratic forces, 48,0% of those surveyed will vote for Fateh while 12,3 % will vote for Hamas ,3,0% for the national front,1,7% for the national initiative , 1,8% for the third road ,1,8% for the coalition of the other democratic forces. 16, 0% said that will not participate in the elections, 10,6% said don't know/ no opinion ,1,8% said no one and 3,0% said other.

Regarding the presidential elections, results indicated that 2,7% [this is probably 52.7% - Mewnews] of those surveyed support the conduction of presidential elections in the beginning of 2009 immediately after the end of the ruling period of the Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas (Abo Mazen) where 43,3% support the continuation of the Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas in his position till the end of the legislative council in the beginning of 2010. 3,5% said that they don't know and 0,5% said other. If new presidential are to take place 39,6% indicated that they will vote for the Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas. 22,1% for Marwan Al-Barghoti, 13,8% for Ismail Haniyeh, 5,4% for Mustafa Al-Barghoti ,1,1% for Bassam Al-Salhi , 8,5% said no one , 5,1% said that they will not participate in presidential elections and 4,4% said other.

Results also showed that 82,9% of those surveyed support the initiative proposed by the president Mahmoud Abbas (Abo Mazen) for the Palestinian -Palestinian dialogue facing 11,5% who oppose and 5.6% said no opinion. As for the seriousness of Hamas in returning to the dialogue table 42,6% stated that Hamas is serious while 47,6% stated that Hamas is not serious, 9,2% said  no opinion/ don't know and 0,6% said other.

Regarding the possibility of reconciliation through the current dialogue in Cairo, result indicated that 57,4% from Palestinians believe the reconciliation is possible facing 33,9% who said it is not possible and 8,7% said don't know/no opinion.

About brining Arab troops to Gaza to return the national unity, results showed that 44,0% support while 52,7% oppose and 3,4% said don't know/no opinion. As for forming a government of national concordance instead of the current government, 73,0% said that they support while 22,2% said they oppose and 5,6% said that they don't know.

Results showed that 51,9% of those surveyed are following the negotiations' development with the Israeli side, 44,8% don't follow and 3,3% don't know/no opinion. About  the termination of the Israeli -Palestinian struggle, 65,1% said that the conflict will be end by the political solution agreed upon (negotiations), 29,3% said it will be achieved by armed operations, 4,3% said it will be achieved by both armed operations and the political solution agreed upon, 8,0% said don't know/ no opinion and 2,4% said other.

About reaching a peace agreement with Israel before the end of 2008 , 20,2% indicated that reaching a peace agreement is possible before the end of 2008 while 73,0%  said it's impossible and 6,9% said don't know/no opinion.

Regarding territories exchange issue posed currently in negotiations, results showed that the majority of those surveyed (29,2%) don't have knowledge regarding this issue where 25,8%  said they have knowledge and 5,0% said don't know/ no opinion.

Concerning the exchange of territories between Palestinians and Israeli in the framework of the process of permanent solution of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict in 1:1 percentage not exceeding 3%, 25,0% support this exchange facing 68,7% who oppose , 6,3% said don't know/no opinion.

21,9% from those surveyed indicated that they agree on temporary solution that postpones Jerusalem issue to a later period while 76,2% disagree and 1,9% said don't know/no opinion. Regarding a temporary solution that postpones the refugees' issue to a later period results showed that 31,9% agree facing 65,4% who disagree and 2,7% said don't know/no opinion.

Regarding the best solution for the refugees' issue, 39,2% said that returning refugees to the Palestinian state on the borders of the year 67 is the best solution while 20,7% stated that the best solution is citizenship and compensation , 5,9% said the partial return to Israel , 29,5% said the entire return to Israel , 2,1% said don't know/ no opinion and 2,6% said other.

This study, which was conducted by Alpha International for research, polling and informatics, is supported and funded by the Palestinian peace coalition and done on a representative sample of the Palestinian society. The size of the sample reached 1222 Palestinian house hold from those aged 18 years and above and reside in the Palestinian territories, 35,3% from them were in Gaza Strip and 64,7% from the West Bank . The data were collected by phone during the period 13/10/2008 to 21/10/2008, and weight using the data of work force survey done by the Palestinian central bureau of statistics on age level above 18 years, the region (West Bank and Gaza), gender (males and females) and number of years of education.

IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

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