Om eerlijk te zijn verbaast het me dat meer dan de helft van de Palestijnen positief is over de toekomst, en bijna 40% optimistisch is wat betreft het vredesproces. Iets meer dan de helft is voor een twee-statenoplossing: "een Palestijnse en een Israëlische staat".
Klinkt mooi, maar wat is een 'Israëlische staat'? Is dat een multi-etnische staat waar de Arabieren op nationaal niveau evenveel in te brengen hebben als de Joden, en zij nadat de vluchtelingen zijn teruggekeerd de helft van de bevolking uitmaken? Of is dat een Joodse staat zoals nu, met gelijke rechten voor minderheden en vrijheid van religie? Jammer dat ze dat nooit vragen.
Tweederde meent dat alle vluchtelingen naar Israël moeten kunnen terugkeren, wat de notie versterkt dat men geen Joodse zelfbeschikking erkent, en ruim de helft wil van heel Jeruzalem een islamitische stad maken. Een kwart is bereid West-Jeruzalem aan Israël te laten. De meeste anderen zijn voor een open stad of internationaal toezicht, wat betekent dat nagenoeg niemand bereid is Israëlische rechten in de Oude Stad te erkennen.
Toen Erekat zei dat de Palestijnen Israël niet als Joodse staat zullen erkennen, sprak hij dus namens een meerderheid van de Palestijnen.
Ratna
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JMCC Poll No. 63 November 2007 of Palestinians
A public opinion poll conducted by Jerusalem Media & Communications Center
www.jmcc.org/publicpoll/results/2007/no63.pdf
PO Box: 25047
Jerusalem
Tel. 02-2976555
Fax: 02-2976557
Email: poll@jmcc.org
JMCC Poll No. 63 November 2007 of Palestinians
A public opinion poll conducted by Jerusalem Media & Communications Center
www.jmcc.org/publicpoll/results/2007/no63.pdf
PO Box: 25047
Jerusalem
Tel. 02-2976555
Fax: 02-2976557
Email: poll@jmcc.org
A random sample of 1200 people over the age of 18 was interviewed face-to-face throughout the West Bank and Gaza Strip between 3-6 of November 2007.
Q.1 In general, how optimistic or pessimistic do you feel towards the future?
Do you say that you are: Very Optimistic, Optimistic, Pessimistic, or Very Pessimistic
Very optimistic 7.6 Optimistic 50.1
Pessimistic 25.9 Very Pessimistic 16.2
No answer 0.2
Q.2 How optimistic or pessimistic are you towards reaching a peaceful settlement for the Arab-Israeli conflict? Do you say that you are Very Optimistic, Optimistic, Pessimistic, or Very Pessimistic?
Very optimistic 2.8 Optimistic 36.8
Pessimistic 37.4 Very Pessimistic 21.8
No answer 1.2
Q. 3 Some believe that a two state formula is the favored solution for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict while others believe that historic Palestine cannot be divided into two states, and thus the favored solution is a bi-national state on all of Palestine where Palestinians and Israeli enjoy equal representation and rights, which of these two solutions do you prefer?
Two- state solution: an Israeli state and a Palestinian state 53.0
Bi -national state on all of historic Palestine 23.5
Other solution 0.6 No solution 9.5
One Palestinian state * 8.9 Islamic state * 2.4
No answer/don't know 2.1
* These answers were not included as part of the options read to the interviewee
Q4. Do you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree; strongly disagree to the peace negotiations between the Palestinians and the Israeli?
Strongly agree 23.6 Somewhat agree 44.3
Somewhat disagree 15.8 Strongly disagree 14.8
I don't know 1.3 No answer 0.2
Q5. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way President (Abu Mazen) is performing his job as a president of the PNA?
Very satisfied 21.0 Somewhat satisfied 29.3
Somewhat dissatisfied 17.5 Very dissatisfied 30.2
No answer 2.0
Q6. With regards to the negotiations over the issue of the refugees, which of the following solutions do you favor?
Return of all the refugees to their original homes 66.8
Return of all the refugees to the Palestinian state (West Bank and Gaza Strip) 9.7
To compensate the refugees for their properties which they lost and for not returning to their properties and homes 9.0
Return of some refugees to their homes, and return of some others to the Palestinian state and compensate the others 13.3
I don't know 0.8 No answer 0.4
Q7. In your opinion, what is the best solution to finalize the Jerusalem dilemma?
A unified Jerusalem (East and West) as a capital of the state of Israel 1.9
East Jerusalem as the capital of the Palestinian state and West Jerusalem as the capital of the state of Israel. 26.3
A unified open Jerusalem and capital of the two states. 10.6
An international Jerusalem 7.4
A capital of the Muslims 52.9
I don't know 0.4 No answer 0.5
Q8. Do you think that Hamas force is stronger in Gaza than it is in the West Bank or it's force in Gaza is weaker than it's force in the West Bank, or it's equivalent to it's force in the West Bank?
Hamas's force in Gaza is stronger than in the West Bank 79.0
Hamas's force in Gaza is weaker than in the West Bank 5.9
Hamas's force in Gaza is equivalent to it's force in the West Bank 9.9
I don't know 4.5 No answer 0.7
Q9. Do you expect the Gaza incident (Internal Fighting) to repeat in the West Bank as well?
Yes 27.7 No 68.6 I don't know 3.2 No answer 0.5
Q10. Do you expect Hamas to take control over West Bank as it did in Gaza?
Yes 15.7 No 79.6 I don't know 4.0 No answer 0.7
Q11. How would you evaluate the performance of the government of Salam Fayyad in the West Bank at the present time compared with the performance of Hanieh's government in Gaza; would you say that the performance of Fayyad's government is better, similar or worse than the performance of Hanieh's government?
The performance of Fayyad's government is better than the performance of Hanieh's government 43.3
The performance of Fayyad's government is similar to the performance of Hanieh's government 23.6
The performance of Fayyad's government is worse than the performance of Hanieh's government 24.8
I don't know 6.7 No answer 1.6
Q12- Do you expect that all the parties will agree once again to the national unity government through the national dialogue between Fateh and Hamas?
Total West
Yes 50.0 No 44.8 I don't know 3.8 No answer 1.4
Q13. If presidential Elections were to be held today, and the only candidates were Isma'eel Hanieh and Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen), to which one will you vote?
Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) 47.1
Isma'eel Hanieh 23.3
Won't vote 27.2 No answer 2.4
Q14. If presidential Elections were to be held today, and the only candidates were Marwan Barghouti and Ismae'el Hanieh to which one will you vote?
Marwan Barghouti 53.1 Ismae'el Hanieh 23.1
Won't vote 21.6 No answer 2.2
Q15. In general, do you think the performance of the current government of Salam Fayyad is better when compared to previous governments? Didn't change, or become worse?
Its performance has become better 37.5
Didn't change 35.6
Its performance has become worse 21.8
I don't know 4.5 No answer 0.6
Q16- Do you think that Fayyad's current government assisted pushing the current PA reform process forward? Backward? Or it didn't have any influence on the current reform process?
It assisted pushing the current PA reform process forward 37.8
It assisted pushing the current PA reform process backward 16.8
It didn't have any influence on the current reform process 40.3
Don't know 4.6 No answer 0.5
Q17- In general, under the current government headed by Fayyad, do you think that the percentage of corruption has increased, decreased, or didn't change?
Increased 23.0 Decreased 35.2 Didn't change 36.8
I don't know 4.5 No answer 0.5
Q18- In general, under the current government headed by Fayyad, do you think the security and internal security conditions have improved, deteriorated or have not changed?
Improved 32.9 deteriorated 27.3 No change 36.7
No answer 3.1
Q19- To what extent do you think Fayyad's government is transparent in handling the financial issues?
To a very high extent 8.6 To a high extent 13.4
To an average extent 28.4
To a low extent 18.3 To a very low extent 20.8
Don't know 9.9 No answer 0.6
Q20- To what degree do you trust that the Palestinian leadership will continue to insist on its negotiating position represented in ending the occupation on all the West Bank, Gaza Strip and Jerusalem, and the return of the refugees and the establishment of the independent state? Are you very confident, are you confident to some extent, are you not confident to some extent, or are you not confident at all that the Palestinian leadership would cling to its abovementioned constants in the current negotiations?
very confident 22.4 confident to some extent 28.8
not confident to some extent 23.0 not confident at all 22.3
I don't know 2.9 No answer 0.6
Q21- Upon an initiative from the United States, this fall will witness a Palestinian-Israeli peace meeting to be attended by international and Arab parties, to what extent do you expect this meeting to succeed or fail?
succeed large ex 6.4 . succeed to some ext 28.9
fail to some extent 25.6 fail to a large extent 36.4
No answer 2.7
Q22- If the peace meeting to be held this fall fails, what do you expect as a result of this failure, do you expect the renewal of the Intifada, or the intervention of a third party or do you expect matters to remain the same?
renewal of the Intifada 28.0 intervention of a third party 21.7
remain the same 47.0 No answer 3.3
Q23- The Palestinian people have tried a Fatah-majority government and a Hamas-majority government, now there is a government with the majority of its ministers as independent figures, in your opinion and from the past experiences, which is the government that best serves the interests of the Palestinian people?
A Fatah-majority government 32.3 A Hams-majority government 18.3
A government with the majority of its ministers as independent figures 39.0
No answer 10.4
Q24- Do you support or oppose the right of the Arab countries to possess a nuclear program for peaceful and energy purposes?
support 73.3 I oppose 22.8 No answer 3.9
Q25. Which Palestinian Personality do you trust the most?
Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) 18.3 Isma'eel Hanieh 16.3
Marwan Barghouti 14.3 Salam Fayyad 2.3
Mohammed Dahlan 2.3 Mustafa Barghouti 1.8
Ahmad Sa'adat 1.7 Yasser Arafat 1.3
Sa'eb Iriqat 1.2 Khaled Mish'al 1.1
Mahmoud Azzahar 1.1 Others 7.4
Don't trust any one 27.4 No answer 3.5
Q26- Which Political or Religious Palestinian Faction do you trust the most?
Fateh 40.0 Hamas 19.7 PFLP 2.8
Islamic Jihad 2.3 Others 2.5 Other Islamic Factions 1.1
Don't trust any one 26.9 No answer 4.7
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IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis
Website: www.imra.org.il
A unified open Jerusalem and capital of the two states. 10.6
An international Jerusalem 7.4
A capital of the Muslims 52.9
I don't know 0.4 No answer 0.5
Q8. Do you think that Hamas force is stronger in Gaza than it is in the West Bank or it's force in Gaza is weaker than it's force in the West Bank, or it's equivalent to it's force in the West Bank?
Hamas's force in Gaza is stronger than in the West Bank 79.0
Hamas's force in Gaza is weaker than in the West Bank 5.9
Hamas's force in Gaza is equivalent to it's force in the West Bank 9.9
I don't know 4.5 No answer 0.7
Q9. Do you expect the Gaza incident (Internal Fighting) to repeat in the West Bank as well?
Yes 27.7 No 68.6 I don't know 3.2 No answer 0.5
Q10. Do you expect Hamas to take control over West Bank as it did in Gaza?
Yes 15.7 No 79.6 I don't know 4.0 No answer 0.7
Q11. How would you evaluate the performance of the government of Salam Fayyad in the West Bank at the present time compared with the performance of Hanieh's government in Gaza; would you say that the performance of Fayyad's government is better, similar or worse than the performance of Hanieh's government?
The performance of Fayyad's government is better than the performance of Hanieh's government 43.3
The performance of Fayyad's government is similar to the performance of Hanieh's government 23.6
The performance of Fayyad's government is worse than the performance of Hanieh's government 24.8
I don't know 6.7 No answer 1.6
Q12- Do you expect that all the parties will agree once again to the national unity government through the national dialogue between Fateh and Hamas?
Total West
Yes 50.0 No 44.8 I don't know 3.8 No answer 1.4
Q13. If presidential Elections were to be held today, and the only candidates were Isma'eel Hanieh and Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen), to which one will you vote?
Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) 47.1
Isma'eel Hanieh 23.3
Won't vote 27.2 No answer 2.4
Q14. If presidential Elections were to be held today, and the only candidates were Marwan Barghouti and Ismae'el Hanieh to which one will you vote?
Marwan Barghouti 53.1 Ismae'el Hanieh 23.1
Won't vote 21.6 No answer 2.2
Q15. In general, do you think the performance of the current government of Salam Fayyad is better when compared to previous governments? Didn't change, or become worse?
Its performance has become better 37.5
Didn't change 35.6
Its performance has become worse 21.8
I don't know 4.5 No answer 0.6
Q16- Do you think that Fayyad's current government assisted pushing the current PA reform process forward? Backward? Or it didn't have any influence on the current reform process?
It assisted pushing the current PA reform process forward 37.8
It assisted pushing the current PA reform process backward 16.8
It didn't have any influence on the current reform process 40.3
Don't know 4.6 No answer 0.5
Q17- In general, under the current government headed by Fayyad, do you think that the percentage of corruption has increased, decreased, or didn't change?
Increased 23.0 Decreased 35.2 Didn't change 36.8
I don't know 4.5 No answer 0.5
Q18- In general, under the current government headed by Fayyad, do you think the security and internal security conditions have improved, deteriorated or have not changed?
Improved 32.9 deteriorated 27.3 No change 36.7
No answer 3.1
Q19- To what extent do you think Fayyad's government is transparent in handling the financial issues?
To a very high extent 8.6 To a high extent 13.4
To an average extent 28.4
To a low extent 18.3 To a very low extent 20.8
Don't know 9.9 No answer 0.6
Q20- To what degree do you trust that the Palestinian leadership will continue to insist on its negotiating position represented in ending the occupation on all the West Bank, Gaza Strip and Jerusalem, and the return of the refugees and the establishment of the independent state? Are you very confident, are you confident to some extent, are you not confident to some extent, or are you not confident at all that the Palestinian leadership would cling to its abovementioned constants in the current negotiations?
very confident 22.4 confident to some extent 28.8
not confident to some extent 23.0 not confident at all 22.3
I don't know 2.9 No answer 0.6
Q21- Upon an initiative from the United States, this fall will witness a Palestinian-Israeli peace meeting to be attended by international and Arab parties, to what extent do you expect this meeting to succeed or fail?
succeed large ex 6.4 . succeed to some ext 28.9
fail to some extent 25.6 fail to a large extent 36.4
No answer 2.7
Q22- If the peace meeting to be held this fall fails, what do you expect as a result of this failure, do you expect the renewal of the Intifada, or the intervention of a third party or do you expect matters to remain the same?
renewal of the Intifada 28.0 intervention of a third party 21.7
remain the same 47.0 No answer 3.3
Q23- The Palestinian people have tried a Fatah-majority government and a Hamas-majority government, now there is a government with the majority of its ministers as independent figures, in your opinion and from the past experiences, which is the government that best serves the interests of the Palestinian people?
A Fatah-majority government 32.3 A Hams-majority government 18.3
A government with the majority of its ministers as independent figures 39.0
No answer 10.4
Q24- Do you support or oppose the right of the Arab countries to possess a nuclear program for peaceful and energy purposes?
support 73.3 I oppose 22.8 No answer 3.9
Q25. Which Palestinian Personality do you trust the most?
Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) 18.3 Isma'eel Hanieh 16.3
Marwan Barghouti 14.3 Salam Fayyad 2.3
Mohammed Dahlan 2.3 Mustafa Barghouti 1.8
Ahmad Sa'adat 1.7 Yasser Arafat 1.3
Sa'eb Iriqat 1.2 Khaled Mish'al 1.1
Mahmoud Azzahar 1.1 Others 7.4
Don't trust any one 27.4 No answer 3.5
Q26- Which Political or Religious Palestinian Faction do you trust the most?
Fateh 40.0 Hamas 19.7 PFLP 2.8
Islamic Jihad 2.3 Others 2.5 Other Islamic Factions 1.1
Don't trust any one 26.9 No answer 4.7
--------------------------------------------
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis
Website: www.imra.org.il
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