Extremisten de baas in Hamas - IDF oefent voor confrontaties op de Westelijke Jordaanoever

Volgens onderstaand artikel heeft de radikale en gewapende vleugel van Hamas de macht grotendeels in handen, en luistert zij zelfs niet naar de hardliner Meshaal in Syrië, die algemeen als de hoogste leider werd gezien. In hoeverre de gematigde vleugel van Haniyeh, die tegen de coup in de Gazastrook zou zijn en toenadering met Abbas zoekt, werkelijk gematigd is en Israël daar zaken mee zou kunnen doen is natuurlijk nog een andere vraag.

Palestinian sources in the Strip said that the rift within the Hamas leadership is worsening, and the more extreme faction - which includes most of the military wing - has effectively seized control of the organization in Gaza. This faction is led by former foreign minister Mahmoud a-Zahar, head of the military wing Ahmad Jabari, and former interior minister Sa'id Siyam.
It relies on Iranian funding, the sources said, and is conducting a completely independent policy: it no longer listens to either Khaled Meshal, head of the organization's Damascus-based political office, or Hamas prime minister Ismail Haniyeh.
The sources estimated that Haniyeh controls at most 30 percent of Hamas' fighting forces - even among the Executive Force, which is technically subordinate to his government.
Senior IDF officers offered a similar assessment. The military wing, controlled by Jabari, has effectively gained control of Gaza, they said; this faction ignores directives from Meshal and dictates to Haniyeh.

In ieder geval hebben Israël, de Palestijnse Autoriteit en de internationale gemeenschap op dit moment te maken met een gebied dat wordt gecontroleerd door mensen die ook de Westelijke Jordaanoever met geweld willen overnemen, om daarna de rest van Palestina te bevrijden. Voor Joden, christenen, dissidente Palestijnen en andere lastpakken zal in deze staat geen plaats zijn. En dus is het niet zo slecht dat het Israëlische leger een grote oefening gaat houden om op de uitbraak van grootschalige botsingen op de Westelijke Jordaanoever voorbereid te zijn.

 

Ratna

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Major IDF drill to simulate large-scale W. Bank clashes

By Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff, Haaretz Correspondents Last update -
03:14 13/11/2007
www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/923254.html

The Israel Defense Forces will conduct a major exercise next week simulating a widespread escalation of Israeli-Palestinian fighting in the West Bank.

However, the only actual escalation on Monday was in internal Palestinian fighting: At least seven people were killed and 55 wounded in exchanges of fire between Hamas forces and Fatah supporters in the Gaza Strip. All of the fatalities were either Fatah members or passersby. Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas blamed Hamas, terming its actions "an abominable crime."

Though the drill will be taking place a week before the Annapolis conference, the timing is apparently coincidental: It was scheduled back in July, when the date of the U.S.-sponsored Mideast peace conference was not yet known.

The exercise is not an official preparation in case talks at Annapolis fail, though senior IDF officers have been predicting for weeks that the conference has little chance of succeeding. Rather, it simulates a scenario in which terrorist organizations launch a massive wave of attacks prior to the conference in order to ensure its failure. The scenario posits this campaign being accompanied by widespread demonstrations in the West Bank. It also posits the IDF having limited forces with which to respond, due to ongoing tensions on the Syrian and Gazan borders.

Exercise scenarios are often deliberately exaggerated, and do not necessarily reflect what the IDF expects to happen. However, several major exercises in the past have ended up accurately anticipating reality. In June 2006, for instance, an IDF exercise posited the abduction of a soldier to Gaza closely followed by the abduction of other soldiers to Lebanon. Later that month, Gilad Shalit was indeed kidnapped to Gaza, after which Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev were kidnapped to Lebanon in July.

Regarding Annapolis itself, the IDF now believes that the parties may be able to formulate a general declaration that would prevent a violent outbreak in the territories after the conference ends.

It has been years since the IDF last conducted a drill of this type, as one planned for July 2006 was canceled due to the Second Lebanon War.

Monday's clashes in Gaza erupted after Hamas policemen tried to disperse a memorial march in Gaza City marking the third anniversary of Yasser Arafat's death. The rally, the largest ever held in the Gaza Strip, attracted more than 200,000 people, who waved pictures of Arafat, yellow Fatah flags, and black and white kaffiyehs as they listened to speeches by several Fatah leaders.

At a certain point, Hamas policemen suddenly opened fire at the crowd, apparently after some of the marchers threw stones at the security forces' offices. According to eyewitnesses, armed Hamas members then began arresting demonstrators.

According to Hamas, one of the three people killed was shot not by Hamas but by one of several Fatah gunmen on nearby roofs. Fatah denied this, saying the man was shot by someone in a passing car while en route to the rally.

Three people were seriously wounded in the clashes, including a Hamas policeman who was shot in the head. Only after several hours did quiet return to Gaza.

Palestinian sources in the Strip said that the rift within the Hamas leadership is worsening, and the more extreme faction - which includes most of the military wing - has effectively seized control of the organization in Gaza. This faction is led by former foreign minister Mahmoud a-Zahar, head of the military wing Ahmad Jabari, and former interior minister Sa'id Siyam. It relies on Iranian funding, the sources said, and is conducting a completely independent policy: it no longer listens to either Khaled Meshal, head of the organization's Damascus-based political office, or Hamas prime minister Ismail Haniyeh.

The sources estimated that Haniyeh controls at most 30 percent of Hamas' fighting forces - even among the Executive Force, which is technically subordinate to his government.

Senior IDF officers offered a similar assessment. The military wing, controlled by Jabari, has effectively gained control of Gaza, they said; this faction ignores directives from Meshal and dictates to Haniyeh.

The extremist faction seeks to reproduce Hamas' takeover of Gaza in the West Bank. Haniyeh's faction, in contrast, believes the takeover of Gaza was a mistake, and has no desire to repeat it in the West Bank.

Meanwhile, the defense establishment has drafted a new proposal for cutting electricity supplies to Gaza in response to rocket fire, after Attorney General Menachem Mazuz vetoed its original proposal. That proposal would have halted electricity to specified areas for specified amounts of time following a rocket launch. The new plan states that instead of deliberate outages, Israel will gradually reduce the voltage it supplies to the strip, meaning that in practice, less electricity will be available for Gaza's needs.

Defense officials claim that the new proposal meets the requirements Mazuz set, which included the need to warn the Palestinians in advance of the planned measures. The proposal will now be submitted to Mazuz for approval.