Voor zover de verkiezingen al een rol hebben gespeeld in het besluit tot de Israelische operatie, heeft het de zittende coalitie weinig opgeleverd. Vooral aan het begin van de operatie was er lichte winst voor Kadima, die inmiddels is verdwenen. Dit ondanks het feit dat de operatie voor Israel militair gezien redelijk succesvol verliep: vooral de gevreesde slachtoffers onder de soldaten zijn uitgebleven, en ook onder de burgers binnen raketafstand vielen weinig doden, mede door een goede voorbereiding en maatregelen van het leger. De vele burgerdoden die zijn gevallen in Gaza zullen - hoe tragisch ook - voor Israeli's niet doorslaggevend zijn in hun beoordeling van het succes van de operatie. Zij zien Hamas wat dat betreft duidelijk als de schuldige, zowel omdat zij het op dit conflict aan heeft laten komen door de vele raketbeschietingen als omdat zij bewust vanuit civiel gebied opereert.
Waarschijnlijk weegt het zwaar dat Hamas ondanks alles toch nog in staat is raketten af te schieten, en dit zondag ook nog heeft gedaan voordat het zelf ook een bestand afkondigde, en komt het nu toch een beetje over alsof beide partijen gelijk zijn, en niet alsof Hamas de verslagen partij is. Dit was te verwachten, maar frusteert wel. Ook steekt het dat de ontvoerde soldaat Shalit nog vast zit. Het probleem Hamas en Gaza is nog even zeer aanwezig als voor Israels militaire campagne, al is Hamas waarschijnlijk wel een flink deel van haar wapens kwijt. Helaas heeft de internationale gemeenschap nagelaten van Hamas te eisen dat het de macht opnieuw met Fatah deelt. Wel heeft Israel het probleem van de wapensmokkel op de kaart gezet, maar of het echt aangepakt gaat worden valt nog te bezien.
RP
-----------
Poll: 50%:36% oppose ceasefire, Likud 31 Kadima 23 Labor 15
Dr. Aaron Lerner Date 18 January 2009
Before operation: "Right" 66 seats "Left" 45 seats Arabs 9 seats
On second day of operation "Right" 57 seats "Left" 53 seats Arabs 10 seats
On fourth day of operation "Right" 61 seats "Left" 49 seats Arabs 10 seats
6 January "Right" 63 seats "Left" 48 seats Arabs 9 seats
13 January "Right" 62 seats "Left" 48 seats Arabs 10 seats
18 January after ceasefire: "Right" 65 seats "Left" 46 seats Arabs 9 seats
Poll #1 Telephone poll of a representative sample of 512 adult Israelis (including Israeli Arabs) carried out by Maagar Mohot Survey Institute (headed by Professor Yitzchak Katz for Israel Television Channel 2 News program on 18 January 2009, the first day of the ceasefire and broadcast on the evening news program.
Poll #2 Telephone poll of a representative sample of 506 adult Israelis (including Israeli Arabs) carried out by Maagar Mohot Survey Institute (headed by Professor Yitzchak Katz for Israel Television Channel 2 "Mishal Cham" program 13 January 2009.
Poll #3 Telephone poll of a representative sample of 514 adult Israelis (including Israeli Arabs) carried out by Maagar Mohot Survey Institute (headed by Professor Yitzchak Katz for Israel Television Channel 2 "Mishal Cham" program 6 January 2009.
Poll #4 Telephone poll of a representative sample of 505 adult Israelis (including Israeli Arabs) carried out by Maagar Mohot Survey Institute (headed by Professor Yitzchak Katz for Israel Television Channel 2 "Mishal Cham" program 30 December 2008 - 4th day of operation in Gaza.
Poll #5 Telephone poll of a representative sample of 502 adult Israelis (including Israeli Arabs) carried out by Maagar Mohot Survey Institute (headed by Professor Yitzchak Katz for Israel Television Channel 10 during the day of Sunday 28 December 2008 - the second day of the operation in Gaza.
Poll #6 Telephone poll of a representative sample of 511 adult Israelis (including Israeli Arabs) carried out by Maagar Mohot Survey Institute (headed by Professor Yitzchak Katz for Israel Television Channel 2 "Mishal Cham" program 23 December 2008
[19% undecided/other replies .]
Current Knesset seats in [brackets].
#1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6
23 26 25 25 28 25 [29] Kadima headed by Livni
15 16 17 15 16 11 [19] Labor
31 28 32 31 30 31 [12] Likud
12 10 10 10 10 12 [12] Shas
13 14 10 10 10 13 [11] Yisrael Beteinu
03 03 04 04 02 05 [03] "Jewish Home" (previously NRP)
01 02 02 01 00 00 [06] National Union (reconstituted)
05 05 05 05 05 05 [06] Yahadut Hatorah
06 06 06 05 07 06 [05] Meretz
01 00 00 02 01 01 [00] Green Party
00 00 00 00 00 00 [00] Social Justice (Gaydamak Party)
01 00 00 02 01 02 [07] Retirees Party
09 10 09 10 10 09 [10] Arab parties
00 00 00 00 00 00 [00] Meimad
00 00 00 00 00 [00] Strong Israel (Efraim Sneh)
* 1 seat is not enough to get into the Kensset as need 2% of valid votes.
Do you support the ceasefire in Gaza that was presented yesterday by the prime minister and minister of defense?
Oppose 50% Support 36% Other replies 14%
Will the operation in Gaza bring an end to the firing and bring quiet to the South?
No 55% Yes 27% Other replies 18%
Should the fighting continue in Gaza until the release of Gilad Shalit?
No 24% Yes 61% Other replies 15%
Who is the most appropriate candidate today for the position of prime minister?
Barak 14% Livni 21% Netanyahu 36% Other replies 29%
Poll: 50%:36% oppose ceasefire, Likud 31 Kadima 23 Labor 15
Dr. Aaron Lerner Date 18 January 2009
Before operation: "Right" 66 seats "Left" 45 seats Arabs 9 seats
On second day of operation "Right" 57 seats "Left" 53 seats Arabs 10 seats
On fourth day of operation "Right" 61 seats "Left" 49 seats Arabs 10 seats
6 January "Right" 63 seats "Left" 48 seats Arabs 9 seats
13 January "Right" 62 seats "Left" 48 seats Arabs 10 seats
18 January after ceasefire: "Right" 65 seats "Left" 46 seats Arabs 9 seats
Poll #1 Telephone poll of a representative sample of 512 adult Israelis (including Israeli Arabs) carried out by Maagar Mohot Survey Institute (headed by Professor Yitzchak Katz for Israel Television Channel 2 News program on 18 January 2009, the first day of the ceasefire and broadcast on the evening news program.
Poll #2 Telephone poll of a representative sample of 506 adult Israelis (including Israeli Arabs) carried out by Maagar Mohot Survey Institute (headed by Professor Yitzchak Katz for Israel Television Channel 2 "Mishal Cham" program 13 January 2009.
Poll #3 Telephone poll of a representative sample of 514 adult Israelis (including Israeli Arabs) carried out by Maagar Mohot Survey Institute (headed by Professor Yitzchak Katz for Israel Television Channel 2 "Mishal Cham" program 6 January 2009.
Poll #4 Telephone poll of a representative sample of 505 adult Israelis (including Israeli Arabs) carried out by Maagar Mohot Survey Institute (headed by Professor Yitzchak Katz for Israel Television Channel 2 "Mishal Cham" program 30 December 2008 - 4th day of operation in Gaza.
Poll #5 Telephone poll of a representative sample of 502 adult Israelis (including Israeli Arabs) carried out by Maagar Mohot Survey Institute (headed by Professor Yitzchak Katz for Israel Television Channel 10 during the day of Sunday 28 December 2008 - the second day of the operation in Gaza.
Poll #6 Telephone poll of a representative sample of 511 adult Israelis (including Israeli Arabs) carried out by Maagar Mohot Survey Institute (headed by Professor Yitzchak Katz for Israel Television Channel 2 "Mishal Cham" program 23 December 2008
[19% undecided/other replies .]
Current Knesset seats in [brackets].
#1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6
23 26 25 25 28 25 [29] Kadima headed by Livni
15 16 17 15 16 11 [19] Labor
31 28 32 31 30 31 [12] Likud
12 10 10 10 10 12 [12] Shas
13 14 10 10 10 13 [11] Yisrael Beteinu
03 03 04 04 02 05 [03] "Jewish Home" (previously NRP)
01 02 02 01 00 00 [06] National Union (reconstituted)
05 05 05 05 05 05 [06] Yahadut Hatorah
06 06 06 05 07 06 [05] Meretz
01 00 00 02 01 01 [00] Green Party
00 00 00 00 00 00 [00] Social Justice (Gaydamak Party)
01 00 00 02 01 02 [07] Retirees Party
09 10 09 10 10 09 [10] Arab parties
00 00 00 00 00 00 [00] Meimad
00 00 00 00 00 [00] Strong Israel (Efraim Sneh)
* 1 seat is not enough to get into the Kensset as need 2% of valid votes.
Do you support the ceasefire in Gaza that was presented yesterday by the prime minister and minister of defense?
Oppose 50% Support 36% Other replies 14%
Will the operation in Gaza bring an end to the firing and bring quiet to the South?
No 55% Yes 27% Other replies 18%
Should the fighting continue in Gaza until the release of Gilad Shalit?
No 24% Yes 61% Other replies 15%
Who is the most appropriate candidate today for the position of prime minister?
Barak 14% Livni 21% Netanyahu 36% Other replies 29%
------------------
Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
Website: http://www.imra.org.il
(mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
Website: http://www.imra.org.il
Geen opmerkingen:
Een reactie posten