Netanjahoe wil niet over de Palestijnen heersen, maar ze ook geen echte soevereiniteit geven en een deel van de Westoever houden, met name om veiligheidsredenen. Er is ook een taktische reden waarom hij - vooralsnog - tegen een Palestijnse staat is: Israel moet niet op de onderhandelingen vooruitlopen en vooraf al de concessie doen dat er een Palestijnse staat komt op het overgrote merendeel van de Westoever. Dit leidt er slechts toe dat de Palestijnen dit als uitgangspositie beschouwen en meer zullen vragen. Dit laatste is ook gebeurd. Israels voorstellen op Camp David en Taba, en toezeggingen van Olmert wat betreft een Palestijnse staat op bijna de gehele Westoever, hebben slechts tot meer eisen geleid, zoals soevereiniteit over de gehele oude stad van Jeruzalem en het zogenaamde 'recht op terugkeer' van de vluchtelingen.
Deze redenering van Netanjahoe lijkt wel een beetje op die van de Palestijnse Autoriteit waar die weigert om Israel als Joodse staat te erkennen. Tijdens het Annapolis vredesproces weigerden zowel president Abbas als onderhandelaar Erekat om aan dit verzoek van Israel te voldoen, ondanks het feit dat Israel wel het recht van de Palestijnen op een staat had erkend. Nu heeft Livni om precies die reden de coalitiebesprekingen verbroken, en krijgt de PA wellicht een regering die het met gelijke munt terug betaalt: geen erkenning van tevoren en geen concessies van tevoren. Dit zal de vrede niet bevorderen, maar de PA heeft het er wel een beetje naar gemaakt.
RP
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ANALYSIS / Why isn't Netanyahu backing two-state solution?
By Aluf Benn - Haaretz
By Aluf Benn - Haaretz
Prime Minister-designate Benjamin Netanyahu is refusing to declare his support for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. For Kadima chairwoman Tzipi Livni, that is reason enough to go into the opposition or to attempt to impose a rotation arrangement on Netanyahu. This weekend U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton reiterated Washington's commitment to a two-state solution, effectively joining the foreign minister in portraying Netanyahu as an obstacle to a negotiated settlement.
There are obvious political reasons for Netanyahu's refusal to demonstrate a more moderate stance: It would cost him his potential coalition with the right-wing National Union and Habayit Hayehudi, and force him into a rotation arrangement with Livni. But his opposition to a Palestinian state is also a matter of principle, one he has held for many years.
Netanyahu says he doesn't want to rule over the Palestinians, and has no interest in Nablus, Tul Karm or Jenin; they should govern their own lives, as long as they don't threaten Israeli security, he says. Netanyahu seeks to deny the Palestinians four rights of any sovereign state: control of its airspace; control of its electromagnetic spectrum; the right to maintain an army and to sign military alliances; and, most importantly, control of the border crossings where arms and terrorists could pass. Netanyahu believes Israel must retain all of these.
Netanyahu's model is based on the work of Stanford University political science professor Stephen Krasner, who was director of policy planning in the State Department under Condoleezza Rice. Krasner developed a "restricted sovereignty" model for problematic state structures.
Netanyahu also has a tactical reason for objecting to a Palestinian state: He believes that this must come through negotiations, rather than being something conceded by Israel in advance. He considers the Annapolis process that outgoing prime minister Ehud Olmert and Foreign Minister Livni conducted with the Palestinian Authority's Mahmoud Abbas and Ahmed Qureia to be a joke. In his opinion, Israel must not offer a near-total withdrawal from the West Bank in advance, which he believes would achieve nothing and only encourage the Palestinians to demand more.
Netanyahu believes Israel must insist on retaining 50 percent of the West Bank - the open areas in the Jordan Valley and the Judean Desert that are vital as a security zone. In light of statements the outgoing government has made to the Palestinians, Netanyahu's position is a joke meant to kill the negotiations before they even begin.
In an interview with Lally Weymouth in yesterday's Washington Post, Netanyahu elegantly avoided the question about two states. Instead of merely saying "No," he presented a vague formulation: "The Palestinians should have the ability to govern their lives but not to threaten ours." Such a statement doesn't explicitly discount the creation of an independent Palestinian state, nor does it address the fine points of control and sovereignty. Netanyahu also undertook to continue the negotiations with the Palestinians, and said Hamas should be toppled by the residents of Gaza [and not by Israel].
Livni demanded Netanyahu explicitly support the establishment of a Palestinian state. The question is what Clinton will make of Netanyahu's opening gambit. Netanyahu's aides believe that as a seasoned politician, Clinton will find a way to work with him, not against him, but it will be interesting to see whether she will also try to effect a compromise between Netanyahu and Livni in a bid toward creating a more moderate Israeli government.
There are obvious political reasons for Netanyahu's refusal to demonstrate a more moderate stance: It would cost him his potential coalition with the right-wing National Union and Habayit Hayehudi, and force him into a rotation arrangement with Livni. But his opposition to a Palestinian state is also a matter of principle, one he has held for many years.
Netanyahu says he doesn't want to rule over the Palestinians, and has no interest in Nablus, Tul Karm or Jenin; they should govern their own lives, as long as they don't threaten Israeli security, he says. Netanyahu seeks to deny the Palestinians four rights of any sovereign state: control of its airspace; control of its electromagnetic spectrum; the right to maintain an army and to sign military alliances; and, most importantly, control of the border crossings where arms and terrorists could pass. Netanyahu believes Israel must retain all of these.
Netanyahu's model is based on the work of Stanford University political science professor Stephen Krasner, who was director of policy planning in the State Department under Condoleezza Rice. Krasner developed a "restricted sovereignty" model for problematic state structures.
Netanyahu also has a tactical reason for objecting to a Palestinian state: He believes that this must come through negotiations, rather than being something conceded by Israel in advance. He considers the Annapolis process that outgoing prime minister Ehud Olmert and Foreign Minister Livni conducted with the Palestinian Authority's Mahmoud Abbas and Ahmed Qureia to be a joke. In his opinion, Israel must not offer a near-total withdrawal from the West Bank in advance, which he believes would achieve nothing and only encourage the Palestinians to demand more.
Netanyahu believes Israel must insist on retaining 50 percent of the West Bank - the open areas in the Jordan Valley and the Judean Desert that are vital as a security zone. In light of statements the outgoing government has made to the Palestinians, Netanyahu's position is a joke meant to kill the negotiations before they even begin.
In an interview with Lally Weymouth in yesterday's Washington Post, Netanyahu elegantly avoided the question about two states. Instead of merely saying "No," he presented a vague formulation: "The Palestinians should have the ability to govern their lives but not to threaten ours." Such a statement doesn't explicitly discount the creation of an independent Palestinian state, nor does it address the fine points of control and sovereignty. Netanyahu also undertook to continue the negotiations with the Palestinians, and said Hamas should be toppled by the residents of Gaza [and not by Israel].
Livni demanded Netanyahu explicitly support the establishment of a Palestinian state. The question is what Clinton will make of Netanyahu's opening gambit. Netanyahu's aides believe that as a seasoned politician, Clinton will find a way to work with him, not against him, but it will be interesting to see whether she will also try to effect a compromise between Netanyahu and Livni in a bid toward creating a more moderate Israeli government.
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