Als je ergens over onderhandelt en je bent het niet eens, doe je doorgaans beiden concessies om tot een oplossing te komen, vooral als het iets is waar je beiden veel voordeel van hebt. Hamas' logica, en die van veel Palestijnen, is echter een andere. Hamas benadrukt graag dat het altijd hetzelfde heeft gevraagd in ruil voor vrijlating van Shalit, en de enige vooruitgang die er is of kan komen zit in Israelische concessies:
"It seems that Olmert is now prepared to release more than 70 percent of the prisoners who are on the list," the Hamas spokesman said. "This means that we have made some progress, given the fact that in the past, Israel refused to release more than 70% of the prisoners."
But as far as Schalit's captors are concerned, it's either 100% or nothing. They are convinced that the new government will have to resume the negotiations over a prisoner exchange from the point where they ended. They also have no doubt that a Netanyahu-led coalition will pay a heavy price in return for a soldier or an Israeli civilian.
Hamas heeft veel te winnen bij een gevangenenruil en het huidige Israelische aanbod, waarin bijna alle gevraagde gevangenen zullen worden vrijgelaten, maar een klein aantal zal niet naar de Westoever kunnen terugkeren waar ze vandaan kwamen, maar naar Gaza gebracht worden. Hamas krijgt in ruil naast in totaal zo'n 1.000 gevangenen, opening van de grenzen waar 1,5 miljoen Gazanen van profiteren. Zowel de eigen organisatie als de bevolking van Gaza hebben er dus zeer veel belang bij. Toch doet men het niet. Waarom niet?
Dat heeft volgens Khaled Abu Toameh van de Jerusalem Post te maken met het feit dat Hamas al een hoge prijs voor de ontvoering heeft betaald vanwege meerdere Israelische offensieven sindsdien, waarbij Toameh echter vergeet dat die voor een groot deel vanwege de raketbeschietingen zijn gevoerd.
Dat Hamas stug blijft vasthouden aan de lijst van vrij te laten gevangenen in ruil voor Shalit lijkt bizar. Men kan een goede deal krijgen, die het Hamas mogelijk maakt een overwinning te claimen en een einde betekent van de blokkade van Gaza. Toameh zegt dat Hamas vanwege de hoge prijs die men heeft betaald zich geen concessies kan veroorloven, maar deze prijs zal zonder die concessies alleen maar hoger worden.
Zou het Palestijnse publiek niet weten dat ook politiek en onderhandelingen met je tegenstanders geven en nemen inhoudt, en jouw partij niet altijd de volledige 100% kan binnenhalen? Dat lijkt mij stug. Toch lijkt het erop dat de Palestijnen, waar het Israel betreft, het pragmatisme missen om een deal te accepteren die goed voor ze is, ook als niet 100% van hun eisen ingewilligd worden, een deal waarin ook Israel kan claimen wat te hebben 'binnengehaald' door aan bepaalde zaken vast te houden. Cynici zeggen wel dat de Palestijnen Israels vernietiging belangrijker vinden dan een eigen staat en er daarom nog geen vrede is. Dat is misschien wat kort door de bocht, maar die indruk dringt zich soms wel op.
RP
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Analysis: Hamas is not afraid to wait for Netanyahu
Khaled Abu Toameh, THE JERUSALEM POST
Hamas is as desperate as Israel to find an "honorable" solution to the case of St.-Sgt. Gilad Schalit.
Hamas knows that Schalit's release could mean the reopening of the border crossings into Gaza Strip - a move that would facilitate the movement's mission of rebuilding the houses destroyed during Operation Cast Lead, further boosting Hamas's popularity and solidifying its control over the 1.4 million Palestinians living there.
But as of Sunday night, it did not seem that the Islamist movement was in a rush to sign a deal just for the sake of handing Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni some kind of victory as they prepare to leave office.
Nor do the soldier's captors seem to be afraid of dealing with a new right-wing coalition headed by the Likud's Binyamin Netanyahu and Israel Beiteinu chairman Avigdor Lieberman.
Olmert has been trying to exert pressure on Hamas by warning that unless an agreement is reached by Monday morning, he will refer the case of Schalit to the next government.
In a message to Hamas, Olmert warned the movement that it would not get a better offer, if any, from Netanyahu and Lieberman.
Accept my offer now, or else you will have to deal with Netanyahu and Lieberman, who are not going to give you as much as I'm willing to give, was the message delivered to Hamas through Egyptian security officials over the weekend.
Hamas spokesmen in the Gaza Strip dismissed Olmert's threat as "nonsense" and "comical." One of them said Hamas did not distinguish between Kadima and the Likud, or between Olmert and Netanyahu or Livni and Lieberman.
"The last two wars, the one in Lebanon and the one in the Gaza Strip, were launched by a government that claims to be leftist and centrist in its policies," the Hamas spokesman noted. "When it comes to dealing with the Arabs, there is no difference between the right wing and the left wing in Israel."
According to the official, Olmert and Livni are desperate to leave office with some sort of an achievement that would make them look good in the eyes of the Israeli public.
"After all the massacres the two committed against our people in the Gaza Strip, they now want us to help them by releasing the soldier," he continued. "I don't believe that Hamas should reward Olmert and Livni."
Another Hamas spokesman said that had Olmert wanted to resolve the case of Schalit, he could have done so shortly after the soldier was kidnapped. Hamas's demands have not changed since then, he said.
"We have been providing Israel with the same list of prisoners for almost three years," he said. "The list that we recently delivered to Israel through the Egyptian mediators is almost the same one we presented back then."
Schalit, he added, could have been returned to his family a few months after his abduction had the government accepted the captors' demands for the release of several hundred security prisoners.
"It seems that Olmert is now prepared to release more than 70 percent of the prisoners who are on the list," the Hamas spokesman said. "This means that we have made some progress, given the fact that in the past, Israel refused to release more than 70% of the prisoners."
But as far as Schalit's captors are concerned, it's either 100% or nothing. They are convinced that the new government will have to resume the negotiations over a prisoner exchange from the point where they ended. They also have no doubt that a Netanyahu-led coalition will pay a heavy price in return for a soldier or an Israeli civilian.
Hamas and the other groups holding Schalit can't afford to make the slightest concession to Israel, particularly since the price the Palestinians have paid since the abduction in the summer of 2006 has been very high - almost 2,500 killed and thousands wounded.
The kidnappers need to show the Palestinian public that the price was not unjustified. This can be achieved only if Israel releases hundreds of security prisoners, including ones with Jewish blood on their hands. And some Hamas officials really believe that Netanyahu and Lieberman might have the guts to do what Olmert and Livni are reluctant to do.
But as of Sunday night, it did not seem that the Islamist movement was in a rush to sign a deal just for the sake of handing Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni some kind of victory as they prepare to leave office.
Nor do the soldier's captors seem to be afraid of dealing with a new right-wing coalition headed by the Likud's Binyamin Netanyahu and Israel Beiteinu chairman Avigdor Lieberman.
Olmert has been trying to exert pressure on Hamas by warning that unless an agreement is reached by Monday morning, he will refer the case of Schalit to the next government.
In a message to Hamas, Olmert warned the movement that it would not get a better offer, if any, from Netanyahu and Lieberman.
Accept my offer now, or else you will have to deal with Netanyahu and Lieberman, who are not going to give you as much as I'm willing to give, was the message delivered to Hamas through Egyptian security officials over the weekend.
Hamas spokesmen in the Gaza Strip dismissed Olmert's threat as "nonsense" and "comical." One of them said Hamas did not distinguish between Kadima and the Likud, or between Olmert and Netanyahu or Livni and Lieberman.
"The last two wars, the one in Lebanon and the one in the Gaza Strip, were launched by a government that claims to be leftist and centrist in its policies," the Hamas spokesman noted. "When it comes to dealing with the Arabs, there is no difference between the right wing and the left wing in Israel."
According to the official, Olmert and Livni are desperate to leave office with some sort of an achievement that would make them look good in the eyes of the Israeli public.
"After all the massacres the two committed against our people in the Gaza Strip, they now want us to help them by releasing the soldier," he continued. "I don't believe that Hamas should reward Olmert and Livni."
Another Hamas spokesman said that had Olmert wanted to resolve the case of Schalit, he could have done so shortly after the soldier was kidnapped. Hamas's demands have not changed since then, he said.
"We have been providing Israel with the same list of prisoners for almost three years," he said. "The list that we recently delivered to Israel through the Egyptian mediators is almost the same one we presented back then."
Schalit, he added, could have been returned to his family a few months after his abduction had the government accepted the captors' demands for the release of several hundred security prisoners.
"It seems that Olmert is now prepared to release more than 70 percent of the prisoners who are on the list," the Hamas spokesman said. "This means that we have made some progress, given the fact that in the past, Israel refused to release more than 70% of the prisoners."
But as far as Schalit's captors are concerned, it's either 100% or nothing. They are convinced that the new government will have to resume the negotiations over a prisoner exchange from the point where they ended. They also have no doubt that a Netanyahu-led coalition will pay a heavy price in return for a soldier or an Israeli civilian.
Hamas and the other groups holding Schalit can't afford to make the slightest concession to Israel, particularly since the price the Palestinians have paid since the abduction in the summer of 2006 has been very high - almost 2,500 killed and thousands wounded.
The kidnappers need to show the Palestinian public that the price was not unjustified. This can be achieved only if Israel releases hundreds of security prisoners, including ones with Jewish blood on their hands. And some Hamas officials really believe that Netanyahu and Lieberman might have the guts to do what Olmert and Livni are reluctant to do.
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