"We have to prepare for the worst, and the worst, sir, is war," zei de Franse minister van buitenlandse zaken een paar dagen geleden. Het kwam hem niet alleen op de verwachte woede van Iran te staan, maar ook Mohammed El Baradei, voorzitter van het IAEA, had er geen goed woord voor over:
"I would not talk about any use of force," he said, speaking outside an International Atomic Energy Agency meeting in Vienna. Any use of force would have to be authorized by the UN Security Council, he said. "There are rules on how to use force, and I would hope that everybody would have gotten the lesson after the Iraq situation, where 700,000 innocent civilians have lost their lives on the suspicion that a country has nuclear weapons," he said, in a reference to the US's argument that the 2003 invasion of Iraq was necessary because Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction.
"I do not believe at this stage that we are facing a clear and present danger that requires we go beyond diplomacy," ElBaradei said. "We need not to hype the issue."
"I would not talk about any use of force," he said, speaking outside an International Atomic Energy Agency meeting in Vienna. Any use of force would have to be authorized by the UN Security Council, he said. "There are rules on how to use force, and I would hope that everybody would have gotten the lesson after the Iraq situation, where 700,000 innocent civilians have lost their lives on the suspicion that a country has nuclear weapons," he said, in a reference to the US's argument that the 2003 invasion of Iraq was necessary because Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction.
"I do not believe at this stage that we are facing a clear and present danger that requires we go beyond diplomacy," ElBaradei said. "We need not to hype the issue."
Het probleem is, dat als je alles behalve vriendelijke diplomatie uitsluit, er voor Iran geen enkele aanleiding is om haar atoomprogramma te stoppen en geen nucleaire wapens te ontwikkelen.
De vergelijking met Irak gaat op meerdere punten niet op: van Iran is bekend dat het kernenergie aan het ontwikkelen is, en het is ook veel beter bewapend dan Irak. Bovendien gaat het bij Iran om een luchtaanval, en zelfs de grootste haviken in de VS zien een aanval met grondtroepen niet zitten. Een luchtaanval zal hoogstwaarschijnlijk tot een tegenaanval leiden, met mogelijk vele doden aan beide kanten, maar het zal niet vergelijkbaar zijn met de chaos en onveiligheid in Irak en het moeras waarin de VS soldaten nu zitten. Het cijfer van 700.000 doden (in 4,5 jaar) is overigens een grove schatting; dat zou betekenen dat er 155.000 doden per jaar zijn gevallen, ofwel zo'n 12.900 per maand ofwel 425 per dag. Dat is zeer onwaarschijnlijk; een aanslag waarbij meer dan 100 doden vallen, wordt als uitzonderlijk veel gezien. Dat er gemiddeld 425 mensen omkomen betekent dat naast de aanslagen die we via het nieuws vernemen nog eens honderden mensen per dag op andere wijze omkomen. Daarmee is de oorlog in Irak niet gerechtvaardigd, maar ik vind het een slecht teken dat El Baradei zo'n cijfer zo makkelijk noemt.
Ik zou graag vernemen wanneer hij meent dat de tijd voor meer druk op Iran is aangebroken. Waarschijnlijk zal dit zo rond de tijd zijn dat de VN Mensenrechtenraad Soedan, Iran en Zimbabwe vaker veroordeelt dan Israël, en in resoluties van de Algemene Vergadering naast de bezetting ook Palestijns terrorisme hard wordt veroordeeld. Dat kan dus nog wel even duren.
Ondertussen ben ik erg blij met de ferme Franse uitspraken, en hoop dat men zich ook in VN verband daadwerkelijk harder zal opstellen. Een Iran uitgerust met kernwapens zal de kans op oorlog niet perse verkleinen, en zal de gevolgen van een dergelijke oorlog onnoemelijk veel erger maken.
Ondertussen ben ik erg blij met de ferme Franse uitspraken, en hoop dat men zich ook in VN verband daadwerkelijk harder zal opstellen. Een Iran uitgerust met kernwapens zal de kans op oorlog niet perse verkleinen, en zal de gevolgen van een dergelijke oorlog onnoemelijk veel erger maken.
Ratna
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NOT A WARMONGER
Kouchner Plays Down Iran 'War' Remarks
SPIEGEL ONLINE - September 18, 2007, 12:21 PM
www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,506361,00.html
French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner has sought to play down his remarks that the world should prepare for war against Iran. He did not want to appear to be a "warmonger," he said Tuesday as he headed to Moscow for talks.
"I do not want it to be said that I am a warmonger!" he told the newspaper Le Monde Tuesday as he flew to Moscow for talks with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov. "My message was a message of peace, of seriousness and of determination. ... The worst situation would be war. To avoid that, the French attitude is to negotiate, negotiate, negotiate, without fear of being rebuffed, and to work with our European friends on credible sanction."
However, in an interview with a Russian newspaper he called again for harder sanctions against Iran. "We demand an answer as to why the Iranians want to engage in enriching uranium," he said in an interview published Tuesday in the Russian daily Nezavisimaya Gazeta. He called the proliferation of nuclear weapons "one of the greatest dangers at the beginning of the 21st century."
Speaking on RTL radio Sunday, Kouchner warned that the world should prepare for war if Iran succeeds in obtaining nuclear weapons. "We must prepare for the worst," he said, adding, "The worst ... is war." However he said that he did not believe that war was imminent. He also said that Paris and Berlin were preparing possible European Union economic sanctions against Tehran, which would be separate from UN sanctions.
Iran insists its atomic activities are entirely peaceful and are aimed only at producing energy, but many Western countries suspect that the Iranian government is seeking to develop nuclear weapons.
The United States has refused to rule out the possibility of force against Iran if it continues with its nuclear program. However, Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Sunday the US administration is currently committed to using diplomatic and economic means to counter the potential nuclear threat from Iran. The five permanent Security Council members -- the United Kingdom, China, France, Russia and the United States -- plus Germany are due to meet in Washington on Sept. 21 to discuss a new draft UN resolution on sanctions against Iran.
'Learn the Lesson' of Iraq
Kouchner's remarks elicited a forceful reaction from the United Nations' chief nuclear inspector, Mohamed ElBaradei, on Monday. "I would not talk about any use of force," he said, speaking outside an International Atomic Energy Agency meeting in Vienna. Any use of force would have to be authorized by the UN Security Council, he said. "There are rules on how to use force, and I would hope that everybody would have gotten the lesson after the Iraq situation, where 700,000 innocent civilians have lost their lives on the suspicion that a country has nuclear weapons," he said, in a reference to the US's argument that the 2003 invasion of Iraq was necessary because Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction.
"I do not believe at this stage that we are facing a clear and present danger that requires we go beyond diplomacy," ElBaradei said. "We need not to hype the issue." In a recent SPIEGEL interview, ElBaradei warned that the next few months would be crucial for deciding if the Iran dispute moves "in the direction of escalation or in the direction of a peaceful solution."
On Monday, French Prime Minister Francois Fillon downplayed Kouchner's remarks, saying "everything must be done to avoid war." France's role "is to lead the way to a peaceful solution," he said. However, he also called for "the most severe sanctions possible" if the Iranian government continues with its nuclear program.
Italian Foreign Minister Massimo D'Alema also attempted Monday to downplay talk of the use of force. "Before talking about war, we have to give political and diplomatic initiatives necessary time," D'Alema said.
The Iranian reaction to Kouchner's hawkish remarks was predictably disparaging. Iranian Vice President Reza Aghazadeh accused certain unspecified countries of forcing the international community on to the "unjustified, illegal, deceptive and misleading path ... by imposing restrictions and sanctions." He said Iran would "never give up its inalienable and legal right in benefiting from peaceful nuclear technology."
Iranian state media Monday accused the French government of copying the US's hardline approach. "The occupants of the Élysée have become translators of the White House policies in Europe and have adopted a tone that is even harder, even more inflammatory and more illogical than that of Washington," Iran's state-run IRNA news agency wrote in an online editorial Monday.
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