maandag 31 januari 2011

Egypte: wordt het Nieuwe Midden-Oosten wel beter dan het Oude?


Niet iedereen is even optimistisch over de toekomst van Egypte. Het is natuurlijk fantastisch wanneer het volk eindelijk de macht opeist en er een einde komt aan een dertig jarige dictatuur, waarin dissidenten hard werden aangepakt en er geen vrijheid van meningsuiting was. Maar naast de vreugde daarover kun je je afvragen wat er voor Mubarak's regime in de plaats gaat komen. Hoe groot is de kans op een seculiere democratie, en hoe groot een machtsovername door de Moslim Broederschap, de enige goed georganiseerde oppositiebeweging? En wat heeft dat voor gevolgen voor de regio? Of, in de woorden van de Muqata:
 
What happens when the dictators who love Jihad and are aligned with Iran replace the dictators who first love personal comforts, prestige and lining their own pockets? 
 
RP
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Sunday, January 30, 2011

A New Middle East

A joint Joe-Jameel post


 
Here at the Muqata, we've haven't hid our disgust at the state of dictatorships that permeate the Arab world such as in Egypt, Jordan and the Palestinian Authority.

We haven't hid our hopes that the Arab people would rise up and replace these tyrannies with true democracies.

We've called for the overthrow of these dictatorial states when we wrote,
"we share in your dream of breaking free from the shackles of your little dictator and his occupation government".
We've demanded freedom (and freedom of speech) for Egyptian bloggers imprisoned by the Egyptian regime.

We helped publicize the Egyptian government's crimes against Humanity.


But in the same vein we wrote a serious analysis when we raised the question as to which would be better, a dictatorship that won't attack Israel, or another Islamic state that will?

Years ago we were already discussing what would happen after Mubarak exits the stage.

The less practical Islamists are poised for a takeover of Egypt.

What happens when the dictators who love Jihad and are aligned with Iran replace the dictators who first love personal comforts, prestige and lining their own pockets?
And it was this past summer where we talked about the upcoming coup against Mubarak's government.

Furthermore, it is only a matter of time before the Islamic Brotherhood attempts a coup against US-propped up Egyptian government once Mubarak dies, and gains access and control to all of Egypt's advanced US weaponry.

And as we wrote the other day, the problem in Egypt, like the other Arab states is that democracy is not likely to take over, as much as we'd like it to.

Elbaradai is supported by the Muslim Brotherhood and in fact, Elbaradai supports the Muslim Brotherhood. "We should stop demonizing the Muslim Brotherhood," he writes.

Elbaradai is also personally responsible for Iran's unhindered progress in their goal to obtain nuclear weapons and commit genocide against the Jewish people.

In short, an Elbaradai/Muslim Brotherhood government would mean another Hamastan, but an Islamic state with the largest army and the second largest number of F-16s in the Middle East.

The other likely alternative is that the Egyptian military takes over. A more stable situation for Israel, but still a ticking time bomb on the inside.

It comes down to this. There is no tradition for democracy in the Arab world, and I'm having difficulty envisioning it flourishing in Egypt. I see the Islamists taking over - through the facade of democracy.

But most importantly, this should be a serious warning bell for all of us in Israel.

The Israeli Left eagerly supports dictators like Abu Mazen and Yasser Arafat. They run weekly protests against Israel, but yet not a single one demanding elections or democracy in the Palestinian Authority. (Talk about hypocrites).

So while the Left and the West pressure Israel to make peace with the dictator Abu Mazen no one is considering the consequences.

Abu Mazen is far weaker than Mubarak. It is only a matter of time before he is overthrown by Hamas (not democracy).

And what happens the next day?

Israel has given over control of more of the Land of Israel to our Islamic enemies (instead of our dictatorial enemies). They will have access to all the tanks and missiles that Saeb Erekat said he plans to bring in.

Watching what is going on in the Arab world, can anyway honestly say this 'peace process' with the current regimes in place, sounds like a smart long-term idea?

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