dinsdag 8 november 2011

Iran werkt sinds 2003 aan atoombommen en kan ze binnen 6 maanden bouwen


Er wordt al jaren gespeculeerd over het Iraanse atoomprogramma en haar ambitie om kernwapens te ontwikkelen. De IAEA, die meestal nogal mild is tegenover Iran, zou nu informatie hebben waaruit blijkt dat Iran binnen een paar maanden een kernbom zou kunnen maken. Het rapport waarin dit staat is juist vrijgegeven, maar was al gelekt en haalde vandaag de journaals. De speculaties over een op handen zijnde Israelische aanval op Iran hangen hiermee natuurlijk samen. 


Zie ook: Aanval Israel op Iran - Fictie of werkelijkheid?





IAEA report: Iran has been working toward nuclear bomb since 2003


Report by UN nuclear agency says Tehran continously worked toward a nuclear weapon since 2003; diplomatic source in Vienna tells Haaretz: 'This is the most damning report ever published by the IAEA.'

By Yossi Melman

Iran has been working toward building a nuclear weapon since 2003, according to a report released by the International Atomic Energy Agency and obtained by Haaretz on Tuesday.

The report, which was handed over to the 35-member states of the IAEA Board of Governors, details a series of tests, acquisition of materials, and technology that suggests Iran has continuously worked to produce a nuclear weapon since 2003.

A diplomatic source in Vienna told Haaretz that this is "the most damning report ever published by the IAEA and the conclusion arising from it is one: Iran is working to acquire a nuclear weapon."

"The agency has serious concerns regarding possible military dimensions to Iran's nuclear program," the IAEA said in the report, which included a 13-page annex with key technical descriptions of research.

Citing "credible" information, the Vienna-based agency said the data "indicates that Iran has carried out activities relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device."

It added: "The information also indicates that prior to the end of 2003, these activities took place under a structured program, and that some activities may still be ongoing."

Click here to read the full IAEA report

U.S. spy services estimated in 2007 that Iran had halted outright "weaponization" research four years previously, but also that the Islamic Republic was continuing efforts to master technology usable in nuclear explosives.

The IAEA report included information from both before and after 2003.

It expressed "particular concern" about information provided by two member states that Iran had carried out computer modeling studies linked to nuclear weapons in 2008-09.

"The application of such studies to anything other than a nuclear explosive is unclear to the agency," the IAEA said.

The information also indicated that Iran had built a large explosives vessel at the Parchin military complex southeast of Tehran in which to conduct hydrodynamic experiments, which are "strong indicators of possible weapon development."

For several years the IAEA has been investigating Western intelligence reports indicating that Iran has coordinated efforts to process uranium, test high explosives and revamp a ballistic missile cone to accommodate a nuclear warhead.

Iran, the world's No. 5 oil exporter, insists that its program to enrich uranium is for a future network of nuclear power stations to provide electricity for a rapidly growing population, so that it can export more of its oil and gas.

But Tehran's history of hiding sensitive nuclear activity from the IAEA, continued restrictions on IAEA access and its refusal to suspend enrichment -- which can yield fuel for atom bombs -- have drawn four rounds of UN sanctions, as well as separate punitive steps by the United States and European Union.

IAEA officials have often complained that Iran has refused, for at least three years, to seriously answer the agency's questions about accusations of illicit nuclear activity.


The IAEA report on Iran's nuclear weapons ambitions is released


The IAEA report on Iran's nuclear program has been released.

It details evidence, both direct and indirect, that Iran is actively working on all stages of a nuclear weapons program.

The summary:

52. While the Agency continues to verify the non-diversion of declared nuclear material at the nuclear facilities and LOFs declared by Iran under its Safeguards Agreement, as Iran is not providing the necessary cooperation, including by not implementing its Additional Protocol, the Agency is unable to provide credible assurance about the absence of undeclared nuclear material and activities in Iran, and therefore to conclude that all nuclear material in Iran is in peaceful activities.

53. The Agency has serious concerns regarding possible military dimensions to Iran’s nuclear programme. After assessing carefully and critically the extensive information available to it, the Agency finds the information to be, overall, credible. The information indicates that Iran has carried out activities relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device. The information also indicates that prior to the end of 2003, these activities took place under a structured programme, and that some activities may still be ongoing.

The specifics are found in the annexes, which go through much detail on what is necessary to create nuclear weapons and specific evidence of how Iran is shown to be engaged in every one of those activities:

· Programme management structure

· Procurement activities

· Nuclear material acquisition

· Nuclear components for an explosive device

· Detonator development

· Initiation of high explosives and associated experiments

· Hydrodynamic experiments

· Modelling and calculations

· Neutron initiator

· Conducting a test

· Integration into a missile delivery vehicle

· Fuzing, arming and firing system

Intriguingly, the report alludes to some information that seems to have been obtained via espionage:

A Member State provided the Agency experts with access to a collection of electronic files from seized computers belonging to key members of the network at different locations. That collection included documents seen in Libya, along with more recent versions of those documents, including an up-dated electronic version of the uranium metal document.

Altogether, the IAEA has pieced together a very convincing - if sometimes irritatingly circumstantial - argument that Iran has been, and still is, actively working to develop nuclear weapons. 


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