Onderstaande analyse van Aaron Lerner bevat zeker een kern van waarheid, maar de vraag is hoe erg dat is. Als de bevriezing van de nederzettingen leidt tot Arabische/Palestijnse concessies, zal het inderdaad moeilijk worden om de bouw weer te hervatten. Als het echter slechts tot verharding leidt, en Abbas achterover leunt totdat Israel aan alle Palestijnse eisen heeft voldaan, dan kan de regering Netanjahoe met enig recht de bouw hervatten. En dat weten de Palestijnen ook. Vandaar dat het niet persé oneerlijk is van een 'tijdelijke bevriezing' te spreken, ook al wordt die misschien wel permanent.
Er was overigens een afspraak tussen Israel en de VS, waarin Israel onder bepaalde voorwaarden op beperkte schaal mocht blijven bouwen.
Er was overigens een afspraak tussen Israel en de VS, waarin Israel onder bepaalde voorwaarden op beperkte schaal mocht blijven bouwen.
Niet alleen Begin stemde toe in een tijdelijke bevriezing van de bouw in de nederzettingen, ook Rabin deed dat, met uitzondering van Jeruzalem. Het is niet duidelijk of Oost-Jeruzalem ook nu uitgezonderd zal blijven. Voor de Israelische wet staat het los van de Westoever, maar volgens de VN en ook de VS heeft het dezelfde status, en zij hebben Israels annexatie ervan nooit erkend.
RP
RP
----------------
Weekly Commentary:
Weekly Commentary:
No confidence a temporary freeze would be temporary
Dr. Aaron Lerner
Dr. Aaron Lerner
Date: 9 July 2009
In the absence of an official written statement released by U.S. President Obama setting a clear unconditional time limit to a "temporary" settlement freeze it is reasonable to expect that any "temporary" freeze the Netanyahu team agrees to could very well become permanent.
There is every reason to expect the Obama team, given their track record to date, to insist that conditions have been met to extend the freeze.
And if Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu feels that the pressure today forces him to agree to a "temporary" freeze there is every reason in the world to expect the White House to turn the screws even tighter to extend it.
And then the very same "senior Israeli officials" who no doubt will swear in background briefings that the freeze is temporary will then dutifully explain the decision to extend the freeze.
After all, once the freeze is in place there will always be more than enough reasons to justify extending it:
- Relations are good with the Obama administration, why harm them by renewing construction?
- Relations are strained with the Obama administration, why make things worse by renewing construction?
[The above two arguments have been used for years, by the way, by prime ministers explaining why they decline to seriously act for Jonathan Pollard's release - relations are either too good or too bad.]
- Progress is being made with the Palestinians, why undermine them by renewing construction?
- The impasse with the Palestinians would be exacerbated by a renewal of construction, plunging the area into crisis and conflict as "moderate" Abbas would be forced by the move to support "resistance" in order to maintain his "legitimacy".
And the list goes on.
Yes, PM Menachem Begin agreed to a temporary freeze.
But, then again, confusion over its details lead to a crisis with Washington.
And while no U.S. administration has ever accepted the legitimacy of settlement construction, this one has apparently decided that of all the problems in the world - from nuclear Korea and Iran to Darfur and beyond - the greatest international problem facing the United States today is settlement construction.
Yes, the pressure is great.
But please don't insult our intelligence with assurances that a freeze is "temporary".
There is every reason to expect the Obama team, given their track record to date, to insist that conditions have been met to extend the freeze.
And if Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu feels that the pressure today forces him to agree to a "temporary" freeze there is every reason in the world to expect the White House to turn the screws even tighter to extend it.
And then the very same "senior Israeli officials" who no doubt will swear in background briefings that the freeze is temporary will then dutifully explain the decision to extend the freeze.
After all, once the freeze is in place there will always be more than enough reasons to justify extending it:
- Relations are good with the Obama administration, why harm them by renewing construction?
- Relations are strained with the Obama administration, why make things worse by renewing construction?
[The above two arguments have been used for years, by the way, by prime ministers explaining why they decline to seriously act for Jonathan Pollard's release - relations are either too good or too bad.]
- Progress is being made with the Palestinians, why undermine them by renewing construction?
- The impasse with the Palestinians would be exacerbated by a renewal of construction, plunging the area into crisis and conflict as "moderate" Abbas would be forced by the move to support "resistance" in order to maintain his "legitimacy".
And the list goes on.
Yes, PM Menachem Begin agreed to a temporary freeze.
But, then again, confusion over its details lead to a crisis with Washington.
And while no U.S. administration has ever accepted the legitimacy of settlement construction, this one has apparently decided that of all the problems in the world - from nuclear Korea and Iran to Darfur and beyond - the greatest international problem facing the United States today is settlement construction.
Yes, the pressure is great.
But please don't insult our intelligence with assurances that a freeze is "temporary".
================
Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(Mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
Website: http://www.imra.org.il
(Mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
Website: http://www.imra.org.il
Geen opmerkingen:
Een reactie posten