Israeli's staan niet te springen om de Golan op te geven, ook niet als Syrië haar banden met Iran verbreekt en er een langere overgangsperiode is. Waarschijnlijk zou de daadwerkelijke houding van Syrië tegenover Israel veel aan deze scepsis kunnen veranderen, zoals Sadat's bezoek aan de Knesset de Israeli's warm maakte voor vrede met Egypte. Dingen als dat Syrië de onlangs in een gevangenenruil vrijgekomen terorrist Samir Kuntar de hoogste medaille heeft gegeven, helpen niet echt.
Overigens is alleen gevraagd met betrekking tot een volledige terugtrekking. Barak boodt Syrië in 2000 al een bijna gehele terugtrekking aan, op een smal strookje na aan de kust van het Meer van Galilea. Niemand wil de Syriërs weer aan het meer hebben zitten.
RP & WB
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Poll finds 16% of Israelis support full withdrawal for full peace treaty without long testing period of years even if break ties with Iran, 61% Golan issue will effect their vote
Dr. Aaron Lerner
Date 24 November 2008
Telephone poll of a representative sample of 520 Israelis age 17+ (including Israeli Arabs) carried out by Maagar Mohot Survey Institute (headed by Professor Yitzchak Katz for Kinneret College on the Sea of Galilee 20-21
November 2008.
Statistical error +/- 4.5 percentage points.
Should the Government of Israel agree to full Israeli withdrawal form the Golan Heights in return for full peace with Syria?
Total: No 55% Yes 26% Depends on circumstances 14% Don't know/other 5%
Right: No 91% Yes 3% Depends on circumstances 4% DK/other 2%
Center: No 47% Yes 18% Depends on circumstances 27% DK/other 8%
Left: No 22% Yes 59% Depends on circumstances 14% DK/other 5%
[Right = voted Likud, National Union/NRP, UJT, Yisrael Beteinu in 2006
Center = voted Kadima, Retirees in 2006
Left = voted Labor, Meretz, Arab parties in 2006]
Under what conditions should Israel agree to full withdrawal from the Golan Heights?
(1) After signing agreement for full peace
(2) After signing agreement for full peace and only after a long testing period of a number of years
(3) After signing agreement for full peace and breaking ties with Iran
(4) After signing agreement for full peace and only after a long testing period of a number of years and breaking ties with Iran
(5) No need to agree at all to leaving the Golan
(6) Don't know, other replies
Total: (1) Sign 12% (2) Long period 11% (3) Break ties 4% (4) Long period + break ties 23% (5) Never 42% (6) DK 8%
[total sign + break ties 16% total long period/long period break ties 34%]
Right:(1) Sign 1% (2) Long period 3% (3) Break ties 0% (4) Long period + break ties 17% Never 65% DK 14%
Center: (1) Sign 4% (2) Long period 18% (3) Break ties 6% (4) Long period + break ties 29% Never 41% DK 2%
Left: (1) Sign 33% (2) Long period 14% (3) Break ties 9% (4) Long period + break ties 17% Never 17% DK 10%
[among Left: total sign + break ties 37% total long period/long period break ties 31%]
What do you think IDF soldiers should do if they are instructed to evacuate Jewish communities in the Golan Heights in the future?
Total: Follow orders 56% Refuse order 27% Don't know/other replies 17%
Right: Follow orders 27% Refuse order 41% Don't know/other replies 32%
Center: Follow orders 65% Refuse order 16% Don't know/other replies 19%
Left: Follow orders 84% Refuse order 9% Don't know/other replies 7%
To what extent will the matter of the future of the Golan Heights influence your decision as to which party to vote for in the coming elections?
Total: None at all 9% No 15% So-so 11% Effect 21% A lot 33%
[Total not effect 27% Total will effect 61%]
Right:Not effect 20% So-so 3% Effect 69% DK 8%
Center: Not effect 12% So-so 21% Effect 59% DK 8%
Left: Not effect 25% So-so 13% Effect 55% DK 7%
Total: No 55% Yes 26% Depends on circumstances 14% Don't know/other 5%
Right: No 91% Yes 3% Depends on circumstances 4% DK/other 2%
Center: No 47% Yes 18% Depends on circumstances 27% DK/other 8%
Left: No 22% Yes 59% Depends on circumstances 14% DK/other 5%
[Right = voted Likud, National Union/NRP, UJT, Yisrael Beteinu in 2006
Center = voted Kadima, Retirees in 2006
Left = voted Labor, Meretz, Arab parties in 2006]
Under what conditions should Israel agree to full withdrawal from the Golan Heights?
(1) After signing agreement for full peace
(2) After signing agreement for full peace and only after a long testing period of a number of years
(3) After signing agreement for full peace and breaking ties with Iran
(4) After signing agreement for full peace and only after a long testing period of a number of years and breaking ties with Iran
(5) No need to agree at all to leaving the Golan
(6) Don't know, other replies
Total: (1) Sign 12% (2) Long period 11% (3) Break ties 4% (4) Long period + break ties 23% (5) Never 42% (6) DK 8%
[total sign + break ties 16% total long period/long period break ties 34%]
Right:(1) Sign 1% (2) Long period 3% (3) Break ties 0% (4) Long period + break ties 17% Never 65% DK 14%
Center: (1) Sign 4% (2) Long period 18% (3) Break ties 6% (4) Long period + break ties 29% Never 41% DK 2%
Left: (1) Sign 33% (2) Long period 14% (3) Break ties 9% (4) Long period + break ties 17% Never 17% DK 10%
[among Left: total sign + break ties 37% total long period/long period break ties 31%]
What do you think IDF soldiers should do if they are instructed to evacuate Jewish communities in the Golan Heights in the future?
Total: Follow orders 56% Refuse order 27% Don't know/other replies 17%
Right: Follow orders 27% Refuse order 41% Don't know/other replies 32%
Center: Follow orders 65% Refuse order 16% Don't know/other replies 19%
Left: Follow orders 84% Refuse order 9% Don't know/other replies 7%
To what extent will the matter of the future of the Golan Heights influence your decision as to which party to vote for in the coming elections?
Total: None at all 9% No 15% So-so 11% Effect 21% A lot 33%
[Total not effect 27% Total will effect 61%]
Right:Not effect 20% So-so 3% Effect 69% DK 8%
Center: Not effect 12% So-so 21% Effect 59% DK 8%
Left: Not effect 25% So-so 13% Effect 55% DK 7%
Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Website: http://www.imra.org.il
(mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Website: http://www.imra.org.il
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