woensdag 14 mei 2008

Nog steeds kans op wapenstilstand met Hamas

Understatement van de week:
"Based on our previous experience with Hamas, I wouldn't say we're overly optimistic, but at the moment this is a viable scenario."
 
Gisteren was een 70-jarige vrouw gedood door een qassam raket, nadat eerder deze week ook al een dodelijk slachtoffer viel, en vele andere raketten met hetzelfde doel waren afgevuurd op Israël. Waarop dan is Israëls optimisme gebaseerd? Suleimans aanwezigheid maakt duidelijk niet de minste indruk op Hamas, evenmin als het bezoek van president Bush en andere prominenten aan Israël deze week.
 
"If the initiative is successful - it may be the answer to how we block Hamas' growing strength while preventing arms smuggling across the border and furthermore, this could mean good news on the Palestinians' willingness to compromise on the Shalit deal," said the State official.
 
Als ik kon vliegen, hoefde ik niet naar de winkel te lopen. En als de aarde plat was, moesten we uitkijken er niet vanaf te vallen.
Hamas zal uiteraard niet met een bestand instemmen dat wapensmokkel en haar versterking in Gaza blokkeert, want daar heeft het niets bij te winnen. Hamas zal Shalit alleen vrijlaten voor een zeer hoge prijs, en heeft in het verleden de vrijlating van meer dan 1.000 Palestijnse gevangenen geëist, waaronder vele zware gevallen, dat wil zeggen mensen die direct verantwoordelijk waren voor de dood van Israëlische burgers, en die deze business waarschijnlijk weer op zouden nemen na vrijlating. Wat heeft Israël te winnen bij een dergelijke deal??
 
 
Ratna
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'Suleiman's visit may bring calm'
 
Israel will refrain from military response to deadly Qassam attack on Monday to allow Egyptian truce initiative genuine shot at succeeding. State officials in Jerusalem say agreement may stem Hamas' growth, end arms smuggling, bring about deal to release Gilad Shalit
 
Roni Sofer YNET published: 05.13.08, 00:31
www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3542524,00.html

 
State officials in Jerusalem said on Monday evening that the presence of Egyptian Intelligence Minister Omar Suleiman in the region may eventually lead to an agreement that would bring calm to the Gaza Strip, this despite the many vocal disagreements between Israel and the Palestinian factions on a number of clauses.

According to recent estimates - the truce will be gradual, and will likely include a deal ensuring the release of kidnapped Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit. Israel has so far demanded Egypt and Hamas clarify their positions on the proposal.

Jerusalem officials said the developing unwritten agreement would be brought before the National Security Cabinet in the near future. No timetable has been laid out, despite Suleiman's impending return to Cairo.

"Egypt has shown it is determined to bring about an agreement - and Suleiman left here with an understanding of how fiercely determined Israel is to push forward with Shalit's release," said a State source.

"Everyone understands that the window of opportunity is narrow. It is narrow because the grave attacks (from Gaza) continue while Israel's patience towards them is growing thinner. Incidents like the deadly Qassam attack on Yesha, which was a coded show of disrespect to Suleiman as a mediator, may narrow that window even further," he said.

"Meanwhile we are operating under the assumption that a truce is possible, while dedicating our efforts to freeing Gilad Shalit. Much has been achieved on the Shalit issue and we hope his release will be part of the unwritten truce between the two sides."

Ball in Egypt's court

The lethal Qassam strike which killed 70-year-old Shuli Katz in Yesha - a small community in the Eshkol Regional Council - has so far not prompted the government to order a military response in Gaza. Officials in Jerusalem said Israel was trying to provide the Egyptian mediation efforts with a genuine chance to broker a truce before resorting to offensive measures. This decision received further reinforcement due to US President George W. Bush's arrival on Wednesday.

With a considerable number of prominent leaders staying in Israel to celebrate its 60th anniversary, Jerusalem has been trying to avoid military tensions.

Now the ball is in Egypt's court, say State officials, in its attempt to bring Hamas and other terror factions to the negotiations table.

"If the initiative is successful - it may be the answer to how we block Hamas' growing strength while preventing arms smuggling across the border and furthermore, this could mean good news on the Palestinians' willingness to compromise on the Shalit deal," said the State official.

"Based on our previous experience with Hamas, I wouldn't say we're overly optimistic, but at the moment this is a viable scenario."
 

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