Enkele punten uit de enquete:
* 10 tot 20 % van de Iraanse bevolking staat achter handelsbetrekkingen met c.q. hulp aannemen van Israël (vraag 9c en 12a).
* Een meerderheid van de bevolking staat achter financiële steun aan islamistische terreurgroepen als Hamas, Islamitische Jihad en Hezbollah (vraag 17a).
* Tegelijkertijd is een meerderheid bereid een twee-statenoplossing te accepteren in ruil voor normalisatie van relaties tussen Iran en de VS, iets waar Hamas, Hezbollah, en Islamitische Jihad tegen zijn (vraag 19a).
Q19a: Now, I am going to read you several proposals which some Iranian diplomats were willing to give to the United States in return for normal relations. For each, please tell me whether you would favor or oppose this proposal.
Endorse recognizing Israel and Palestine each as separate, independent states
Strongly favor 42.0%
Somewhat favor 12.6%
Somewhat oppose 8.4%
Strongly oppose 26.1%
Refused 3.6%
Don't know 7.3%
Q19a: Now, I am going to read you several proposals which some Iranian diplomats were willing to give to the United States in return for normal relations. For each, please tell me whether you would favor or oppose this proposal.
Endorse recognizing Israel and Palestine each as separate, independent states
Strongly favor 42.0%
Somewhat favor 12.6%
Somewhat oppose 8.4%
Strongly oppose 26.1%
Refused 3.6%
Don't know 7.3%
___________________________________________________
Polling Iranian Public Opinion: An Unprecedented Nationwide Survey of Iran
http://terrorfreetomorrow.org/upimagestft/TFT%20Iran%20Survey%20Report.pdf
The survey was conducted by telephone from June 5th to June 18th, 2007, with 1,000 interviews proportionally distributed according to the population covering all 30 provinces of Iran.
Terror Free Tomorrow's field partner and project manager on the Iran survey is D3 Systems, Inc. www.D3systems.com
The interviews were conducted in Farsi by native speakers, among a random national sample of 1,000 Iranians aged 18 and up from June 5th to 18th, 2007. The questionnaire consisted of 20 substantive questions, 12 demographic questions, and 24 quality control questions. During the course of fieldwork, there were 2,124 contact attempts made. Of these, 465 resulted in non-contacts, yielding a non-contact rate of 21.9%. Another 8 contact attempts results in noneligible respondents because they were not Iranian nationals. Of the 1,651 successful contacts, there were 651 refusals giving the study a 60.6% response rate. The poll has a +/- 3.1% margin of error at the 95% confidence interval.
Q1: Do you think the economy in Iran today is going in the right direction, or do you think they are going in the wrong direction?
The Iranian economy is headed in the right direction 27.1%
The Iranian economy is headed in the wrong direction 42.3%
Neither Right nor Wrong Direction 10.6%
Refused 1.5%
Don't know 18.5%
Q2: How do you feel about the overall economic situation in Iran today?
Would you say the overall economic situation is excellent, good, fair or poor?
Excellent 3.5%
Good 14.5%
Fair 47.0%
Poor 32.7% Refused .4%
Don't know 2.0%
Q3: In terms of your own personal economic situation, do you think your financial situation today is better, the same, or worse than it was when President Ahmadinejad took office in August 2005?
Better 23.6%
The same 43.8%
Worse 31.4%
Refused .1%
Don't know 1.1%
Q4: Overall, would you say President Ahmadinejad's policies have or have not succeeded in reducing unemployment and inflation?
Have succeeded 32.6%
Have not succeeded 52.2%
Refused 5.4%
Don't know 9.7%
Q5: Do you feel that President Ahmadinejad has kept his campaign promise to "put oil money on the tables of the people themselves"?
Yes 22.4%
No 56.3%
Refused 9.2%
Don't know 12.1%
Q6: Compared to when President Ahmadinejad took office in August 2005, do you think the amount of corruption overall in Iran has increased, stayed the same, or decreased?
Increased 28.3%
Stayed the same 28.0%
Decreased 35.9%
Refused 1.2%
Don't know 6.6%
Q7a: I am going to read you a list of possible investment options for the government of Iran when it comes to investing Iran's oil and gas revenues.
Please tell me for each option that I read whether you think it is very important, somewhat important, somewhat unimportant, or not at all important? (Rotate List)
Creating New Jobs
Very important 91.7%
Somewhat important 4.4%
Somewhat unimportant .3%
Not at all important 1.2%
Refused .3%
Don't Know 2.2%
Curbing Inflation
Very important 89.5%
Somewhat important 6.4%
Somewhat unimportant .3%
Not at all important 1.4%
Refused .3%
Don't Know 2.1%
Improving the oil and gas industry itself
Very important 78.3%
Somewhat important 12.8%
Somewhat unimportant 2.0%
Not at all important 1.8%
Refused .1%
Don't Know 4.9%
Developing nuclear energy, but not nuclear weapons
Very important 75.7%
Somewhat important 11.7%
Somewhat unimportant 3.6%
Not at all important 3.5%
Refused .9%
Don't Know 4.5%
Developing nuclear weapons
Very important 36.9%
Somewhat important 14.7%
Somewhat unimportant 8.1%
Not at all important 28.2%
Refused 1.6%
Don't Know 10.5%
Q8: Iran's oil and gas industry today does not have enough refineries to serve its own people's needs for gasoline and fuel. Some people think new investments should be made to improve Iran's declining oil and gas industry. Others think these investments should be made instead in developing nuclear energy. Which do you think should be the first priority?
Improving the oil and gas industry 41.1%
Developing nuclear energy 45.9%
Refused 4.5%
Don't know 85 8.5%
Q9a: Thinking about Iran's economy, normal trade relations now exist with only some countries. Do you favor or oppose having normal trade relations with each of the following countries? (Rotate List)
China
Strongly favor 63.6%
Somewhat favor 14.2%
Somewhat oppose 3.3%
Strongly oppose 9.6%
Refused .9%
Don't know 8.4%
Q9b: Thinking about Iran's economy, normal trade relations now exist with only some countries. Do you favor or oppose having normal trade relations with each of the following countries? (Rotate List)
Iraq
Strongly favor 37.8%
Somewhat favor 15.9%
Somewhat oppose 7.8%
Strongly oppose 29.5%
Refused 1.1%
Don't know 78 7.8%
Q9c: Thinking about Iran's economy, normal trade relations now exist with only some countries. Do you favor or oppose having normal trade relations with each of the following countries? (Rotate List)
Britain or the UK
Strongly favor 39.2%
Somewhat favor 13.0%
Somewhat oppose 7.3%
Strongly oppose 29.8%
Refused 1.0%
Don't know 9.6%
Russia
Strongly favor 47.9%
Somewhat favor 16.4%
Somewhat oppose5 6.5%
Strongly oppose 17.9%
Refused 1.1%
Don't know 10.2%
The United States
Strongly favor 33.4%
Somewhat favor 10.9%
Somewhat oppose 7.0%
Strongly oppose 38.9%
Refused 1.5%
Don't know 8.2%
France
Strongly favor 56.1%
Somewhat favor 17.1%
Somewhat oppose 3.8%
Strongly oppose 13.4%
Refused .9%
Don't know 8.7%
Israel
Strongly favor 10.5%
Somewhat favor 2.7%
Somewhat oppose 3.1%
Strongly oppose 74.8%
Refused 1.7%
Don't know 7.1%
Turkey
Strongly favor 56.9%
Somewhat favor 19.2%
Somewhat oppose 3.9%
Strongly oppose 10.9%
Refused .9%
Don't know 8.2%
Q10a: Do you favor or oppose investment from Western countries in Iran to create more jobs?
Strongly favor 52.3%
Somewhat favor 22.5%
Somewhat oppose 5.3%
Strongly oppose 15.6%
Refused .8%
Don't know 3.5%
Q10b: Do you favor or oppose medical, education and humanitarian assistance from Western countries to Iranian people in need?
Strongly favor 50.5%
Somewhat favor 24.7%
Somewhat oppose 4.6%
Strongly oppose 15.7%
Refused .6%
Don't know 3.9%
Q11: A hospital ship recently provided medical care to 61,000 patients, including major surgeries and medical training, while visiting Indonesia and Bangladesh. Would you like a hospital ship like this to visit Iran on a similar medical humanitarian mission?
Yes 73.2%
No 19.4%
Refused .3%
Don't know 7.0%
Q12a: Should Iran accept or refuse a hospital ship visit from each of the following countries? (Rotate Order)
Russia
Accept 69.2%
Refuse 19.5%
Refused question 1.4%
Don't know 10.0%
USA
Accept 42.0%
Refuse 47.2%
Refused question 2.0%
Don't know 71 8.8%
Israel
Accept 21.2%
Refuse 68.1%
Refused question 2.1%
Don't know 8.6%
China
Accept 75.5%
Refuse 14.9%
Refused question 1.3%
Don't know 8.3%
European Union
Accept 71.6%
Refuse 17.3%
Refused question 1.2%
Don't know 9.9%
Saudi Arabia
Accept 73.2%
Refuse 16.5%
Refused question 1.0%
Don't know 9.3%
Turkey
Accept 75.0%
Refuse 14.5%
Refused question 1.4%
Don't know 9.2%
Q13a: Do you favor or oppose the Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran developing nuclear energy?
Strongly favor 77.9%
Somewhat favor 13.6%
Somewhat oppose 1.8%
Strongly oppose 3.8%
Refused 1.0% Don't know 1.9%
Q13b: Apart from nuclear energy, do you favor or oppose the Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran developing nuclear weapons?
Strongly favor 33.0%
Somewhat favor 19.0%
Somewhat oppose 4.8%
Strongly oppose 37.0%
Refused 1.3% Don't know 5.0%
Q14: If the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran had nuclear weapons, do you think that the people of Iran would live in a safer or more dangerous world?
Safer 51.5%
More Dangerous 31.4%
Neither safer nor more dangerous 6.7%
Refused 1.9%
Don't Know 8.5%
Q15a: I'm going to read a list of types of assistance which Iran has been offered by other countries. These have been offered if Iran provides full inspections and a guarantee not to develop or possess nuclear weapons. For each, please tell me if you would support or oppose Iran receiving this type of assistance in return for Iran guaranteeing not to develop nuclear weapons.
Trade and capital investment overall to create more jobs
Support 80.2%
Oppose 14.7%
Refused question 1.2%
Don't know 3.9%
Trade and capital investment in energy refineries to lower the price of gasoline
Support 79.2%
Oppose 16.2%
Refused question 1.4%
Don't know 3.1%
Medical, education and humanitarian assistance to Iranian people in need
Support 79.5%
Oppose 16.7%
Refused question .9%
Don't know 2.8%
Technological assistance for developing peaceful nuclear energy
Support 79.8%
Oppose 14.2%
Refused question 1.2%
Don't know 4.8%
Q16a: I am going to read you a list of possible long-term goals for the government of Iran. Please tell me whether you think these goals are very important, somewhat important, somewhat unimportant, or not at all important for the government of Iran. (Rotate List)
Developing an arsenal of nuclear weapons
Very important 28.7%
Somewhat important 18.4%
Somewhat unimportant 7.8%
Not at all important 33.3%
Refused 1.9%
Don't Know 10.0%
Improving the Iranian economy
Very important 88.0%
Somewhat important 6.4%
Somewhat unimportant 1.6%
Not at all important 1.3%
Refused 1.0%
Don't Know 1.6%
Providing financial support for Arab and other foreign groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah
Very important 33.1%
Somewhat important 23.5%
Somewhat unimportant 10.3%
Not at all important 23.5%
Refused 1.6%
Seeking trade and political relations with Western countries
Very important 46.8%
Somewhat important 25.7%
Somewhat unimportant 9.0%
Not at all important 10.6%
Refused 1.9%
Don't Know 6.2%
Q17a: Do you support or oppose financial assistance to each of the following groups? (Rotate List)
Palestinian opposition groups like Hamas and Islamic Jihad
Strongly support 43.5%
Somewhat support 21.2%
Somewhat oppose 6.9%
Strongly oppose 19.8%
Refused 2.7%
Don't 58 5.8%
Lebanese Hezbollah
Strongly support 41.0%
Somewhat support 22.6%
Somewhat oppose 7.9%
Strongly oppose 20.5%
Refused 2.5%
Don't know 5.6%
Iraqi Shiite militias
Strongly support 37.9%
Somewhat support 20.1%
Somewhat oppose 7.6%
Strongly oppose 25.7%
Refused 2.5%
Q18a: In the past, some Iranian diplomats have offered proposals to the United States that would lead to normal relations. I will read you some of the proposals, beginning with those Iran asked for from the United States.
For each, please tell me whether you favor or oppose this proposal? (Rotate List)
Full United States recognition of Iran and normalized trade relations
Strongly favor 55.5%
Somewhat favor 12.9%
Somewhat oppose 5.0%
Strongly oppose 17.6%
Refused 2.0%
Full access for Iran to peaceful nuclear technology
Strongly favor 77.4%
Somewhat favor 7.5%
Somewhat oppose 2.3%
Strongly oppose 5.5%
Refused 1.8%
Don't know 5.5%
Q19a: Now, I am going to read you several proposals which some Iranian diplomats were willing to give to the United States in return for normal relations. For each, please tell me whether you would favor or oppose this proposal.
Full transparency by Iran to assure there are no Iranian endeavors to develop or possess nuclear weapons
Strongly favor 37.4%
Somewhat favor 13.9%
Somewhat oppose 8.3%
Strongly oppose 29.0%
Refused 2.9%
Don't know 8.6%
Endorse recognizing Israel and Palestine each as separate, independent states
Strongly favor 42.0%
Somewhat favor 12.6%
Somewhat oppose 8.4%
Strongly oppose 26.1%
Refused 3.6%
Don't know 7.3%
Ending Iranian support for any armed group inside Iraq and only using Iranian influence to actively support a peaceful, democratic government in Iraq
Strongly favor 49.4%
Somewhat favor 14.4%
Somewhat oppose 4.2%
Strongly oppose 18.7%
Refused 3.4%
Don't know 9.9%
Q20a: I am going to read you a list of three options for governing Iran.
Please tell me whether you support or oppose each as a form of government for Iran. (Rotate List)
A political system where the 'Supreme Leader' rules according to religious principles, and cannot be chosen or replaced by a direct vote of the people.
Strongly support 16.7%
Somewhat support 10.2%
Somewhat oppose 8.2%
Strongly oppose 53.1%
Refused 5.5%
on't know 6.3%
A political system where the 'Supreme Leader,' along with all leaders, can be chosen and replaced by a free and direct vote of the people.
Strongly support 71.9%
Somewhat support 7.2%
Somewhat oppose 2.7%
Strongly oppose 10.8%
Refused 2.9%
Don't know 4.5%
A political system where there is a monarch who is not elected by the people, rules for life, and his family inherits the right to rule.
Strongly support 6.3%
Somewhat support 4.0%
Somewhat oppose 5.6%
Strongly oppose 74.5%
Refused 4.5%
Don't know 5.0%
D3: Do you work......?
Full-Time 23.3%
Part-Time 12.4%
Does Not Work 64.1%
Don't Know .2%
D6b: Educational achievement
Illiterate 4.6%
No Formal Education But Read & Write 3.3%
Some/Finished Elementary 7.5%
Some/Finished Intermediate 8.5%
Some Secondary 13.2%
Finished Secondary 34.5%
Some/Finished College 16.5%
Finished University 12.0%
D7: What is your religious affiliation?
Shia Muslim 91.4%
Sunni Muslim 4.6%
Muslim 3.3%
Other .6%
Don't Know .1%
D9: Would you describe your household as upper class, middle class, working class, or poor?
Upper 1.0%
Middle 57.1%
Working 21.9%
Poor 19.4%
Refused .2%
Don't Know .4%
D10: What is your ethnic origin?
Persian 54.4%
Azeri 18.7%
Gilaki & Mazanderani 8.4%
Kurd 7.0%
Arab 2.0%
Lur 6.5%
Baloch 1.1%
Turkmen .7%
Other 1.1%
Refused .2%
For additional information about the content of the survey, please contact:
www.terrorfreetomorrow.org
For additional information about the methodology of the survey, please contact:
Matthew Warshaw, Senior Research Manager, D3 Systems, Inc.
www.D3Systems.com
--------------------------------------------
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis
Website: www.imra.org.il
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