In enquetes worden de antwoorden vaak in hoge mate door de vraag en de manier van vragen bepaald.
In tegenstelling tot wat Sander van Hoorn ons wil doen geloven, is de steun voor Fatah nog steeds een stuk groter dan voor Hamas.
40% is ondanks alles nog steeds voor het afschieten van raketten op Israel, maar bijna driekwart is ook voor onderhandelingen met Israel, en 88% is voor een staakt het vuren met Israel.
RP
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PCPO Poll No.167 Date: 04.Feb.2009
The most recent poll prepared by Dr. Nabil Kukali revealed that:
(72.0 %) evaluated their economic situation as 'bad'.
(34.1 %) believe that Hamas has won the Gaza war.
(54.4 %) hold Israel responsible for the war that recently flamed in Gaza.
(43.5 %) believe that Hamas' power has increased after the Gaza war.
(40.6 %) are in favor of Fateh, (31.4 %) of Hamas.
(61.2 %) oppose the deployment of multinational (UN) forces in Gaza Strip.
(46.0 %) propose for the present the formation of a national unity government.
(57.8 %) were in favor of the participation of Khaled Misha'l and some factions' heads in the Doha's Summit Conference.
(51.3 %) of the Palestinians are of the opinion that Hamas is navigating the country towards the wrong direction, (46 %) believe Fateh is doing that.
Beit Sahour - The Information Bureau:
In the most recent poll prepared by Dr. Nabil Kukali, being conducted during the period January 25th to January 31st 2009 and published by the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion (PCPO), a random sample of (673) Palestinian adults (over 18 years old) representing the various demographic specimens in the Palestinian society in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and Gaza Strip, were face to face interviewed.
The most important finding of this poll is that the overwhelming majority of the Palestinians, (88.2 %), are for the present in favor of a Palestinian-Israeli truce, specifically (86.1 %) in Gaza Strip and (89.6 %) in the West Bank. Dr. Kukali further commented the outcome of the poll saying that the rate of support for Fateh (40.6 %) among the Palestinians lies now higher than that for Hamas (31.4 %). The rate of Fateh's popularity in Gaza Strip, established at (42.5 %), lies much higher than that of Hamas on its own terrain, reaching namely the rate of (27.8 %). The same trend has been found in the West Bank, where Fateh scored (39.2 %) of the Palestinians' support, whilst Hamas has to content itself with only (23.7 %).
In addition, Dr. Kukali said that the majority of the Palestinian people, ( 54.1 %), believe that none of the parties involved won the war recently blazed in Gaza. This rate consists of (34.7 %) from Gaza Strip and (66.3 %) from the West Bank. Dr. Kukali pointed out that (56 %) of the residents of Gaza Strip believe that Hamas is navigating the country towards the wrong direction, whilst (48.3 %) of the Palestinians in the West Bank believe that. Regarding the inauguration of the new US-president Barak Obama, (41.7 %) of the Palestinian public have a positive opinion of him as they hope that Mr. Obama will undertake practical and serious measures to achieve peace in the Middle East region.
Dr. Nabil Kukali said the results of the poll where as follows:
01) How would you assess nowadays your attitude or support to Hamas?
25.9% 1. My support increased
12.8% 2. My support decreased
14.1% 3. My support remained unchanged
47.2% 4. My attitude remained unchanged. I'm not a Hamas supporter
02) How would you assess nowadays your attitude or support to Fateh?
19.4% 1. My support increased
16.3% 2. My support decreased
28.5% 3. My support remained unchanged
35.8% 4. My attitude remained unchanged. I'm not a Fatah supporter
03) Do you think, in general, that Hamas is navigating our country in the right or in the wrong direction ?
41.7% 1. In the right direction
51.3% 2. In the wrong direction
7.0% 3. I Don't know (DON'T READ)
04) Do you think, in general, that Fateh is navigating our country in the right or in the wrong direction?
46.0% 1. In the right direction
46.0% 2. In the wrong direction
8.0% 3. I Don't know (DON'T READ)
05) Who should, in your opinion, be held responsible for the recent war in Gaza?
07.6% 1. Fateh
14.5% 2. Hamas
54.4% 3. Israel
04.8% 4. Egypt
04.8% 5. Iran
00.7% 6. Syria
13.0% 7. US
00.2% 8. EU
06) Who, in your opinion, won the war that recently blazed in Gaza Strip?
10.5% 1. Israel
34.1% 2. Hamas
01.3% 3. Fateh
54.1% 4. Nobody
07) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way President Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) is handling his job as PA president?
28.7% 1. Satisfied
48.8% 2. Dissatisfied
22.5% 3. Refuse to answer
08) What is your attitude to the firing of rockets at present on Israel from Gaza?
18.5% 1. Strongly favour
20.8% 2. Favour
33.5% 3. Undecided
14.3% 4. Oppose
12.9% 5. Strongly oppose
09) To which extent do you think the militant resistance has fulfilled its task during the Israeli aggression on Gaza Strip?
40.1% 1. To a great extent
33.3% 2. To a middle extent
23.9% 3. To a small extent
02.7% 4. I don't know
10) Do you think, after the war in Gaza ... (READ THE LIST) has gained or lost power? How would you assess at present this power?
(Gained:Lost)
37.7%:35.3% 1. Israel
43.5%:26.8% 2. Hamas
25.5%:22.3% 3. Fateh
22.9%:26.3% 4. The Palestinian Authority
21.3%:38.1% 5. Mahmoud Abbas
41.6%:30.3% 6. Khaled Mish'al
11) Some people in the West Bank and Gaza Strip were in favor of the participation of Khaled Mish'al and some factions' heads in the Doha's Summit Conference. Others opposed that. Which of the following opinions is closer to yours?
57.8% 1. I was in favor of the participation of Khaled Mish'al and some factions' heads.
24.6% 2. I opposed their participation
17.6% 3. I don't know
12) What do you think, after the Gaza war, would be the best solution to the Palestinian people ?
21.1% 1. To return to the negotiation table with Israel
46.0% 2. To form a government of national unity
37.0% 3. To conduct new presidential and PLC elections
01.2% 4. To affiliate Gaza Strip to Egypt
03.7% 5. To call UN forces to take over the responsibility in Gaza Strip
13) I'm going to read to you a list of groups, organizations, institutions or individuals. Please tell me for each group, organization, institution or individual I read whether you have a very favorable opinion, a somewhat favorable opinion, a somewhat unfavorable opinion or a very unfavorable opinion.
(Favorable:Unfavorable)
50.2%:49.8% 1. PA President "Abu Mazen"
50.0%:50.0% 2. Head of Hamas, "Khaled Mish'al
63.7%:36.3% 3. Prime Minister, "Salam Fayyad"
55.9%:44.1% 4. Head of the deposed government, "Ismael Haniyyeh"
62.8%:37.2% 5. PLO Secretary, "Yassir Abed-Rabbu"
41.7%:58.3% 6 .The new US-President, "Barak Obama"
87.3%:12.7% 7. Al-Jazeera TV-station
82.4%:17.6% 8. Al-Arabiyya TV-sation
82.0%:18.0% 9. Doha Summit Conference
77.6%:22.4% 10. Kuwait Summit Conference
14) Are you in favor of deploying multinational (UN) forces in Gaza Strip, or not? (READ 1-4).
06.4% 1. Strongly favor
31.1% 2. Somewhat favor
28.6% 3. Somewhat oppose
32.6% 4. Strongly oppose
01.3% 5. I don't know
15) Please mention the name of the Palestinian organization, party, movement or faction you are in favor of / or consider yourself on of its supporters. OPEN QUESTION.
40.6% 1. Fatah
31.3% 2. Hamas
05.4% 3. The popular front for the liberation of Palestine (PFLP)
02.7% 4. The Islamic jihad
01.8% 5. The Palestinian National Initiative
01.3% 6. The democratic front of the liberation of Palestine (DFLP)
00.9% 7. People's party
00.7% 8. FIDA
05.8% 9. Independents
05.0% 10. Refused
08.8% 11. None of the above
16) If, with the consent of all political powers and parties, new presidential elections would be conducted. For whom would you vote to be the President of the Palestinian Authority ? OPEN QUESTION.
15.8% 1. Ismael Haniyyeh
14.4% 2. Marwan Al-Barghouthi
12.6% 3. Mahmoud Abbas
09.2% 4. Yassir Abed-Rabbu
08.9% 5. Khaled Misha'l
04.4% 7. Mohammed Dahlan
04.1% 8. Mustafa Al-Barghouthi
03.6% 9. Salam Fayyad
03.5% 10. Aziz El-Duwaik
03.3% 11. Mahmoud El-Zahhar
02.2% 12. Ahmad Sa'adat
02.1% 13. Ramadan Shallah
00.8% 14. Qais Abed-Alkareem
00.6% 15. Munib Al-Masre
00.6% 16. Saeb Ereikat
00.2% 17. Bassam Al-Salhi
05.5% 18. Independent
01.6% 19. Hamas Candidate
00.8% 20. Fatah Candidate
03.5% 21. None of the above
02.3% 22. I don't know
17) What is your attitude towards a Palestinian-Israeli cease-fire at present? (READ 1-4)
49.3% 1. Strongly favor
38.9% 2. Somewhat favor
05.8% 3. Somewhat oppose
04.0% 4. Strongly oppose
01.9% 5. I don't know
18) Do you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose peace negotiations between the Palestinians and the Israelis?
20.0% 1. Strongly favor
53.6% 2. Somewhat favor
11.5% 3. Somewhat oppose
12.7% 4. Strongly oppose
02.2% 5. I don't know
19) Who, do you think, is the best party to bear the responsibility for the reconstruction of Gaza Strip? (READ 1-2).
36.2% 1. Salam Fayyad's government
37.4% 2. The deposed government of Ismael Haniyyeh
26.4% 3. Otherwise, please specify:
20) In view of the political and economic situations prevailing nowadays in the Palestinian Territories, are you optimistic or pessimistic about the future? (READ 1-2).
61.2% 1. Pessimistic
33.9% 2. Optimistic
04.9% 3. Don't know
21) How would you assess the general economic situation in the Palestinian Territories? Is it (READ 1-3)
02.8% 1. Good
24.7% 2. Mediocre
72.0% 3. Bad
00.5% 4. I don't know
22) Up to which extent are you worried at present about the subsistence of your family? (READ 1-4).
40.7% 1. Too much worried
40.7% 2. Worried
12.1% 3. Not so much worried
04.6% 4. No worried at all
01.9% 5. Don't know
23) What is your main concern at present?
28.6% 1. The job / money
40.5% 2. The security
11.5% 3. The health
19.4% 4. The future
24) Given an assessment scale from (1) to (10), where (1) stands for "very much dissatisfied" and (10) for "very much satisfied", how would you assess your satisfaction or dissatisfaction, in general, with the life you're living?
Answer from (1) to (10): The outcome was in average: 3.61
25) Now think of the future, and particularly when your children become in your age. Do you think there would be peace between Israelis and Palestinians? (READ 1-5).
02.4% 1. Yes, definitely
14.4% 2. Yes, likely
16.5% 3. Peace is possible
23.3% 4. Unlikely
40.8% 5. Definitely, No
02.6% 6. Don't know
Methodology of the Survey Study:
Mr. Elias Kukali, a staff member of the Research and Studies' Section at the PCPO, said that all interviews of this survey were conducted inside the respondents' homes, i.e. face-to-face during different working hours, at least 5 hours a day, including the evening time, in order to ensure proper representation of those sub-groups of the population, which would otherwise be difficult to reach and selecting one individual in each household using Last Birthday Method. The choices were taken from a total of (150 election sites, from which (110 sites are located in West Bank and (40) sites in Gaza Strip according to the distribution of the Central Election Commission.
These election sites were randomly chosen by using the method of the simple random sample. These in turn were the beginning of the random sample choice made from those regions in accordance with PCPO's long experienced methodology.
Mr. E. Kukali has further established that the margin of error was (±3.78) at a significance and confidence levels of (5%) and (95%) respectively. He added that the rate of the female respondents in this survey was (49.8%) against (50.2%) male respondents. The distribution of the random sample between the Palestinian two major regions was (61.5%) in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and (38.5%) in Gaza Strip, and allocated as follows: (49.6%) for the towns, (31.6%) for the villages and (18.4%) for the camps.
34.1% 2. Hamas
01.3% 3. Fateh
54.1% 4. Nobody
07) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way President Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) is handling his job as PA president?
28.7% 1. Satisfied
48.8% 2. Dissatisfied
22.5% 3. Refuse to answer
08) What is your attitude to the firing of rockets at present on Israel from Gaza?
18.5% 1. Strongly favour
20.8% 2. Favour
33.5% 3. Undecided
14.3% 4. Oppose
12.9% 5. Strongly oppose
09) To which extent do you think the militant resistance has fulfilled its task during the Israeli aggression on Gaza Strip?
40.1% 1. To a great extent
33.3% 2. To a middle extent
23.9% 3. To a small extent
02.7% 4. I don't know
10) Do you think, after the war in Gaza ... (READ THE LIST) has gained or lost power? How would you assess at present this power?
(Gained:Lost)
37.7%:35.3% 1. Israel
43.5%:26.8% 2. Hamas
25.5%:22.3% 3. Fateh
22.9%:26.3% 4. The Palestinian Authority
21.3%:38.1% 5. Mahmoud Abbas
41.6%:30.3% 6. Khaled Mish'al
11) Some people in the West Bank and Gaza Strip were in favor of the participation of Khaled Mish'al and some factions' heads in the Doha's Summit Conference. Others opposed that. Which of the following opinions is closer to yours?
57.8% 1. I was in favor of the participation of Khaled Mish'al and some factions' heads.
24.6% 2. I opposed their participation
17.6% 3. I don't know
12) What do you think, after the Gaza war, would be the best solution to the Palestinian people ?
21.1% 1. To return to the negotiation table with Israel
46.0% 2. To form a government of national unity
37.0% 3. To conduct new presidential and PLC elections
01.2% 4. To affiliate Gaza Strip to Egypt
03.7% 5. To call UN forces to take over the responsibility in Gaza Strip
13) I'm going to read to you a list of groups, organizations, institutions or individuals. Please tell me for each group, organization, institution or individual I read whether you have a very favorable opinion, a somewhat favorable opinion, a somewhat unfavorable opinion or a very unfavorable opinion.
(Favorable:Unfavorable)
50.2%:49.8% 1. PA President "Abu Mazen"
50.0%:50.0% 2. Head of Hamas, "Khaled Mish'al
63.7%:36.3% 3. Prime Minister, "Salam Fayyad"
55.9%:44.1% 4. Head of the deposed government, "Ismael Haniyyeh"
62.8%:37.2% 5. PLO Secretary, "Yassir Abed-Rabbu"
41.7%:58.3% 6 .The new US-President, "Barak Obama"
87.3%:12.7% 7. Al-Jazeera TV-station
82.4%:17.6% 8. Al-Arabiyya TV-sation
82.0%:18.0% 9. Doha Summit Conference
77.6%:22.4% 10. Kuwait Summit Conference
14) Are you in favor of deploying multinational (UN) forces in Gaza Strip, or not? (READ 1-4).
06.4% 1. Strongly favor
31.1% 2. Somewhat favor
28.6% 3. Somewhat oppose
32.6% 4. Strongly oppose
01.3% 5. I don't know
15) Please mention the name of the Palestinian organization, party, movement or faction you are in favor of / or consider yourself on of its supporters. OPEN QUESTION.
40.6% 1. Fatah
31.3% 2. Hamas
05.4% 3. The popular front for the liberation of Palestine (PFLP)
02.7% 4. The Islamic jihad
01.8% 5. The Palestinian National Initiative
01.3% 6. The democratic front of the liberation of Palestine (DFLP)
00.9% 7. People's party
00.7% 8. FIDA
05.8% 9. Independents
05.0% 10. Refused
08.8% 11. None of the above
16) If, with the consent of all political powers and parties, new presidential elections would be conducted. For whom would you vote to be the President of the Palestinian Authority ? OPEN QUESTION.
15.8% 1. Ismael Haniyyeh
14.4% 2. Marwan Al-Barghouthi
12.6% 3. Mahmoud Abbas
09.2% 4. Yassir Abed-Rabbu
08.9% 5. Khaled Misha'l
04.4% 7. Mohammed Dahlan
04.1% 8. Mustafa Al-Barghouthi
03.6% 9. Salam Fayyad
03.5% 10. Aziz El-Duwaik
03.3% 11. Mahmoud El-Zahhar
02.2% 12. Ahmad Sa'adat
02.1% 13. Ramadan Shallah
00.8% 14. Qais Abed-Alkareem
00.6% 15. Munib Al-Masre
00.6% 16. Saeb Ereikat
00.2% 17. Bassam Al-Salhi
05.5% 18. Independent
01.6% 19. Hamas Candidate
00.8% 20. Fatah Candidate
03.5% 21. None of the above
02.3% 22. I don't know
17) What is your attitude towards a Palestinian-Israeli cease-fire at present? (READ 1-4)
49.3% 1. Strongly favor
38.9% 2. Somewhat favor
05.8% 3. Somewhat oppose
04.0% 4. Strongly oppose
01.9% 5. I don't know
18) Do you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose peace negotiations between the Palestinians and the Israelis?
20.0% 1. Strongly favor
53.6% 2. Somewhat favor
11.5% 3. Somewhat oppose
12.7% 4. Strongly oppose
02.2% 5. I don't know
19) Who, do you think, is the best party to bear the responsibility for the reconstruction of Gaza Strip? (READ 1-2).
36.2% 1. Salam Fayyad's government
37.4% 2. The deposed government of Ismael Haniyyeh
26.4% 3. Otherwise, please specify:
20) In view of the political and economic situations prevailing nowadays in the Palestinian Territories, are you optimistic or pessimistic about the future? (READ 1-2).
61.2% 1. Pessimistic
33.9% 2. Optimistic
04.9% 3. Don't know
21) How would you assess the general economic situation in the Palestinian Territories? Is it (READ 1-3)
02.8% 1. Good
24.7% 2. Mediocre
72.0% 3. Bad
00.5% 4. I don't know
22) Up to which extent are you worried at present about the subsistence of your family? (READ 1-4).
40.7% 1. Too much worried
40.7% 2. Worried
12.1% 3. Not so much worried
04.6% 4. No worried at all
01.9% 5. Don't know
23) What is your main concern at present?
28.6% 1. The job / money
40.5% 2. The security
11.5% 3. The health
19.4% 4. The future
24) Given an assessment scale from (1) to (10), where (1) stands for "very much dissatisfied" and (10) for "very much satisfied", how would you assess your satisfaction or dissatisfaction, in general, with the life you're living?
Answer from (1) to (10): The outcome was in average: 3.61
25) Now think of the future, and particularly when your children become in your age. Do you think there would be peace between Israelis and Palestinians? (READ 1-5).
02.4% 1. Yes, definitely
14.4% 2. Yes, likely
16.5% 3. Peace is possible
23.3% 4. Unlikely
40.8% 5. Definitely, No
02.6% 6. Don't know
Methodology of the Survey Study:
Mr. Elias Kukali, a staff member of the Research and Studies' Section at the PCPO, said that all interviews of this survey were conducted inside the respondents' homes, i.e. face-to-face during different working hours, at least 5 hours a day, including the evening time, in order to ensure proper representation of those sub-groups of the population, which would otherwise be difficult to reach and selecting one individual in each household using Last Birthday Method. The choices were taken from a total of (150 election sites, from which (110 sites are located in West Bank and (40) sites in Gaza Strip according to the distribution of the Central Election Commission.
These election sites were randomly chosen by using the method of the simple random sample. These in turn were the beginning of the random sample choice made from those regions in accordance with PCPO's long experienced methodology.
Mr. E. Kukali has further established that the margin of error was (±3.78) at a significance and confidence levels of (5%) and (95%) respectively. He added that the rate of the female respondents in this survey was (49.8%) against (50.2%) male respondents. The distribution of the random sample between the Palestinian two major regions was (61.5%) in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and (38.5%) in Gaza Strip, and allocated as follows: (49.6%) for the towns, (31.6%) for the villages and (18.4%) for the camps.
Contact Persons: Dr. Nabil Kukali & Elias Kukali
Tel: 00970 2 277 4846, Fax: 00970 2 277 4892
Mobile: 00970 599 726 878
P.O. Box 15, Beit Sahour - Palestine
Email: kukali@p-ol.com
Website: www.pcpo.ps
Tel: 00970 2 277 4846, Fax: 00970 2 277 4892
Mobile: 00970 599 726 878
P.O. Box 15, Beit Sahour - Palestine
Email: kukali@p-ol.com
Website: www.pcpo.ps
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