Volgens onderstaande analyse is de kans dat de onderhandelingen zullen mislukken aanzienlijk omdat Abbas er verzwakt en met tegenzin aan begint:
On the face of it, starting the talks without preconditions was a political victory for Netanyahu, who managed to twist Abbas' arm while ensuring the unity of his coalition. The Labor Party cannot threaten to leave because of the political stalemate, and he has not made any concessions that are liable to annoy his coalition partners on the right. The question is whether this is not in fact a Pyrrhic victory. Israel dragged a weakened, humiliated partner into the negotiations, which weakens this partner politically and denies it legitimacy in the Palestinian public. A weak negotiator is incapable of reaching compromises over sensitive issues. In addition, Netanyahu's opening positions are presumably far removed from the positions presented by then- Prime Minister Olmert to the Palestinians. As such, the gaps between the stances of the two sides are now greater than they were a year and a half ago. Hence, even if the talks do not break down immediately, the probability that Israel and the Palestinians will be able to bridge the gaps between them within a year seems highly far-fetched.
De vraag is of Abbas deze positie niet aan zichzelf heeft te danken. Hij stelde continu voorwaarden, en wanneer Israel er (onder Amerikaanse druk) aan voldeed dan verzon hij nieuwe. Zo eiste hij een bevriezing van de nederzettingen, erkenning dat er een Palestijnse staat moet komen, uitbreiding van de nederzettingenstop met Jeruzalem, en dat alles heeft hij min of meer gekregen. Nu is de stop bijna voorbij en eist hij voortzetting ervan, en erkenning van de 1967 grenzen, en een bepaald tijdspad, etc. etc. Maar had hij die tien maanden niet moeten gebruiken om te gaan onderhandelen? Waarom zo lang gewacht? Hij had dan op bovenstaande concessies kunnen wijzen als 'oogst'. In de Israelische regering is de roep om hervatting van de bouw in nederzettingen groot, mede omdat de stop niks heeft opgeleverd: Abbas geeft geen duimbreed toe, de ophitsing in Palestijnse media gaat door, en Abbas zelf was onlangs bij de begrafenis van een van de planners van de aanslag op de Israelische Olympische ploeg in München, waar hij als een held werd vereerd. Door deze opruiing in de media bereidt Abbas zijn volk bovendien niet voor op concessies en coëxistentie, maar op hernieuwde strijd en het vasthouden aan 'heilige' principes, ook als daarvoor bloed moet worden vergoten.
Abbas dreigt nu dus in zijn eigen val te lopen: een onwillig volk dat niets ziet in onderhandelingen en hem verwijt teveel aan vijand Israel toe te geven, nog voordat er is onderhandeld. En toenemende druk van Amerika om te gaan onderhandelen en tot resultaten te komen, wat noodzakelijkerwijze concessies inhoudt.
RP
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Renewing the Direct Negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians
INSS Insight No. 203, August 26, 2010
Brom, Shlomo
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton recently announced that direct talks between Israel and the Palestinians will be renewed on September 2, 2010 in Washington. The talks will be launched in the presence of Prime Minister Netanyahu, Palestinian Authority President Abbas, and President Obama; also invited to the inaugural meeting are President Mubarak of Egypt, King Abdullah of Jordan, and Quartet emissary Tony Blair. After the initial meeting, the sides will proceed to direct talks, in the United States or in this region, and continue with active American involvement. A similar announcement was also issued by the Quartet.
The renewal of the talks was made possible following heavy pressure leveled by the United States on Abbas to concede his three conditions for renewing the talks. The first was that the talks be conducted according to principles determined in advance relating to the territorial component of the agreement. Abbas demanded that it be agreed in advance that the solution be based on the 1967 borders with the exception of some limited land swaps. The second condition was predetermining a negotiations schedule, and the third condition was that Israel extend the construction freeze in the settlements after it expires on September 26.
The announcements by Clinton and the Quartet were meant in part to make it easier for Abbas to agree to renew the talks by mitigating the political cost he will have to pay to the Palestinian public in light of what is seen as capitulation to American and Israeli pressure. However, from Abbas' perspective it is doubtful that the announcements will have their desired effect. He has already been attacked on the internal Palestinian front for his "surrender," and even within Fatah, his own party, his decision is not enjoying much support.
It is unclear whether the US administration made any promises to the Palestinians to ensure the start of the talks, and if they did, what they were. Clinton's announcement contained two elements of importance to Abbas, though these were formulated in a non-committal way. The first referred to the timetable, namely, the hope that the talks would reach a conclusion within one year. The second referred to active American involvement in the talks. There were reports in the Arab media – so far unsubstantiated – that President Obama has given the Palestinians guarantees that the territorial solution would be based on the 1967 borders and include limited land swaps for territory identical in size. It was likewise reported that the Americans would be prepared to present bridging proposals reflecting Palestinian considerations. It is also possible that the Americans promised Abbas that if he agreed to direct talks, they would be able to persuade Netanyahu to continue the construction freeze de facto, even without a public declaration to that effect.
All sides share low expectations about the talks' prospects of success, even if the US American administration and Prime Minister Netanyahu thought the announcement merited some optimistic statements, including Netanyahu's declaration that the Palestinians will be surprised by his proposals. This remark hints at greater willingness on his part to meet them part way.
Already at the outset there will be a number of hurdles that the sides will have to overcome to prevent an early breakdown of the talks. The first hurdle is agreement on the order of the agenda. While the Palestinians have agreed to the American suggestion to begin by discussing security and territory in tandem, Netanyahu has demanded that the talks start by discussing security and recognizing Israel as a Jewish state. He conditions the discussion of other issues on agreement in these areas. Yet if Netanyahu indeed insists on this demand, the talks will likely be nipped in the bud, with the United States siding with the Palestinians over this.
The second hurdle is the construction freeze. The Palestinians have made it entirely clear that renewed construction in the settlements will end the talks. The United States will likely attempt to reach an understanding with Israel over continuing the construction freeze, barring in the settlements close to the Green Line, including the Jewish neighborhoods in East Jerusalem. However, continuing to expand the settlements in the Arab neighborhoods of Jerusalem will almost certainly end the talks. Similarly, it is unclear if the Palestinians will accept a compromise that would allow construction in even some of the locations. It may be that given the current political situation, the most convenient scenario for Abbas is one in which he ends the talks because of construction in the settlements. In that case, the decision to renew the talks will only have temporarily postponed the crisis that was already expected to erupt in September.
On the face of it, starting the talks without preconditions was a political victory for Netanyahu, who managed to twist Abbas' arm while ensuring the unity of his coalition. The Labor Party cannot threaten to leave because of the political stalemate, and he has not made any concessions that are liable to annoy his coalition partners on the right. The question is whether this is not in fact a Pyrrhic victory. Israel dragged a weakened, humiliated partner into the negotiations, which weakens this partner politically and denies it legitimacy in the Palestinian public. A weak negotiator is incapable of reaching compromises over sensitive issues. In addition, Netanyahu's opening positions are presumably far removed from the positions presented by then- Prime Minister Olmert to the Palestinians. As such, the gaps between the stances of the two sides are now greater than they were a year and a half ago. Hence, even if the talks do not break down immediately, the probability that Israel and the Palestinians will be able to bridge the gaps between them within a year seems highly far-fetched.
If so, the three parties – Israel, the Palestinians, and the United States – will have to consider other options as well. The Palestinians will again consider the option of a unilateral establishment of a Palestinian state with international backing. It may also be that in the given situation, the only realistic step would be to return to the Roadmap route and consider an interim solution of establishing a Palestinian state within temporary borders. At the same time, the negotiations over a permanent settlement would continue, based on the assumption that arriving at a permanent agreement would require a longer period of time and might also depend on political changes on both sides.
An additional question touches on the role of the United States in the direct talks. On the one hand, the distrust between Israel and the Palestinians requires active American involvement, particularly viable bridging proposals. On the other hand, precisely because of the distrust and the assessment of both sides that the talks are destined to fail, there is a danger that the American presence will encourage both sides to talk to the Americans rather to one another. In this case, the goal of the two sides would be primarily to convince the Americans that the expected failure should be attributed to the other side. Thus, the American team involved in the talks will have to navigate very carefully in order to avoid contributing to their failure.
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