Zahar is expected to make the view from Gaza clear to Meshal; a rejection of the Egyptian proposal will be seen as missing a historic opportunity to ensure Hamas' control over the Strip.
Dat zou te denken moeten geven. Moet Israel met een deal instemmen die Hamas' grip op de Gazastrook alleen maar verder versterkt en legitimeert? Was dat het doel van Israels offensief? Moet Israel niet in plaats daarvan inzetten op verdere verzwakking van Hamas, dat immers de oorlog heeft verloren, en officieel helemaal niet is erkend als de autoriteit die het in Gaza voor het zeggen heeft? Het lijkt erop dat de huidige regering koste wat het kost nog voor de verkiezingen een deal wil bereiken (of op zijn minst vooruitzicht daarop kunnen tonen), in de hoop zo meer stemmen te krijgen.
Dat zou te denken moeten geven. Moet Israel met een deal instemmen die Hamas' grip op de Gazastrook alleen maar verder versterkt en legitimeert? Was dat het doel van Israels offensief? Moet Israel niet in plaats daarvan inzetten op verdere verzwakking van Hamas, dat immers de oorlog heeft verloren, en officieel helemaal niet is erkend als de autoriteit die het in Gaza voor het zeggen heeft? Het lijkt erop dat de huidige regering koste wat het kost nog voor de verkiezingen een deal wil bereiken (of op zijn minst vooruitzicht daarop kunnen tonen), in de hoop zo meer stemmen te krijgen.
RP
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Last update - 09:33 08/02/2009
ANALYSIS / Hamas rift holding up approval of Gilad Shalit deal
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1062322.html
By Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff
Last update - 09:33 08/02/2009
ANALYSIS / Hamas rift holding up approval of Gilad Shalit deal
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1062322.html
By Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff
Anyone who has been burned repeatedly in the past needs to be extra careful, but over the weekend it seemed that for the first time some optimism was justified. A genuine opportunity is out there, not only for a long-term cease-fire in the Gaza Strip, but also, according to a variety of sources linked to the talks, for a deal to free captured soldier Gilad Shalit.
The main obstacle to what sources have described as a "negotiated formula" remains Khaled Meshal and the Hamas politburo in Damascus.
Even though details remain unclear, it appears that the most significant change occurred in Hamas' "domestic" leadership. For the first time in weeks, senior figures of the organization, including Mahmoud al-Zahar, left the Strip to visit Cairo and then Damascus for talks. It seems they have reached the end of their tether, with Israeli military pressure and the economic siege on the Strip, accompanied by the constant threat on the lives of Hamas leaders. The Hamas leadership in Gaza is ready for a deal, one that will include the opening of the border crossings, an 18-month cease-fire, and probably an exchange of Shalit for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners.
A finalizing of the deal - there will be no signing of this "non-paper" - is still very much up to the Palestinian leadership. The head of Hamas' military wing, Ahmed Ja'abari, is likely to oppose it. But Meshal's opinion is even more important in light of his steady opposition to any progress in recent months.
Zahar is expected to make the view from Gaza clear to Meshal; a rejection of the Egyptian proposal will be seen as missing a historic opportunity to ensure Hamas' control over the Strip.
There has been growing tension between Hamas' domestic leaders and those abroad. The former have felt that they have been pushed by the group's Damascus leadership to confront Israel, with the people of Gaza paying the price. The local leadership is now asking to take control of the group.
For a deal to take place, the pieces need to fall in the right order on the Israeli side, too. The case of Gilad Shalit is of paramount importance for Israel, and its handling is sensitive. But there is a growing inclination toward greater flexibility and the release of however many Palestinians are needed to bring Shalit home.
The timing of the election may be ideal, as Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is on his way out and may clear this thorniest of issues from the prime minister's desk, leaving his successor with no public blame. On the other hand, as the elections are three days away, an announcement tomorrow that a breakthrough has been achieved may draw votes away from Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud toward the center-left of Kadima and Labor.
The main obstacle to what sources have described as a "negotiated formula" remains Khaled Meshal and the Hamas politburo in Damascus.
Even though details remain unclear, it appears that the most significant change occurred in Hamas' "domestic" leadership. For the first time in weeks, senior figures of the organization, including Mahmoud al-Zahar, left the Strip to visit Cairo and then Damascus for talks. It seems they have reached the end of their tether, with Israeli military pressure and the economic siege on the Strip, accompanied by the constant threat on the lives of Hamas leaders. The Hamas leadership in Gaza is ready for a deal, one that will include the opening of the border crossings, an 18-month cease-fire, and probably an exchange of Shalit for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners.
A finalizing of the deal - there will be no signing of this "non-paper" - is still very much up to the Palestinian leadership. The head of Hamas' military wing, Ahmed Ja'abari, is likely to oppose it. But Meshal's opinion is even more important in light of his steady opposition to any progress in recent months.
Zahar is expected to make the view from Gaza clear to Meshal; a rejection of the Egyptian proposal will be seen as missing a historic opportunity to ensure Hamas' control over the Strip.
There has been growing tension between Hamas' domestic leaders and those abroad. The former have felt that they have been pushed by the group's Damascus leadership to confront Israel, with the people of Gaza paying the price. The local leadership is now asking to take control of the group.
For a deal to take place, the pieces need to fall in the right order on the Israeli side, too. The case of Gilad Shalit is of paramount importance for Israel, and its handling is sensitive. But there is a growing inclination toward greater flexibility and the release of however many Palestinians are needed to bring Shalit home.
The timing of the election may be ideal, as Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is on his way out and may clear this thorniest of issues from the prime minister's desk, leaving his successor with no public blame. On the other hand, as the elections are three days away, an announcement tomorrow that a breakthrough has been achieved may draw votes away from Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud toward the center-left of Kadima and Labor.
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