donderdag 26 juni 2008

Enquete onder Palestijnen: 75% denkt dat verzoening in deze generatie niet mogelijk is

 
Hieronder een aantal resultaten van een recente enquete onder de Palestijnse bevolking op de Westoever en Gazastrook.
Men is pessimistisch over de kansen op vrede en verzoening:

44) How soon do you think will a political settlement between Israel and the Palestinians be achieved?
42.0%  1) A political settlement is not possible ever
21.9%  2) Only in many generations to come
8.9%  3) Only in the next generation
5.8%  4) Only in the next decade
15.6%  5) Only in the next few years
5.8%  6) No Opinion /Don't know

45) After reaching a peace agreement between the Palestinian people and Israel and the establishment of a Palestinian state that is recognized by Israel, how soon do you think will reconciliation between the two peoples be achieved?
42.9%  1) Reconciliation is not possible ever
20.5%  2) Only in many generations to come
12.4%  3) Only in the next generation
6.3%  4) Only in the next decade
11.4%  5) On the next few years
6.5%  6) No Opinion /Don't know

Enkele andere resultaten:
Ondanks dit pessimisme steunt bijna driekwart pogingen om nadat een Palestijnse staat is gesticht tot verzoening van beide volken te komen.
Een meerderheid is voor raketaanvallen en andere aanvallen op burgers binnen Israël.
Steun voor vredesplannen: circa tweederde steunt het Arabische Vredesplan, circa de helft de Roadmap en iets minder dan de helft een tweestatenoplossing zoals het Geneefse Akkoord voorstaat.
 
Ratna
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Palestinian Public Opinion Poll No (28)
 
These are the results of the latest poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip between 5 and 7 June 2008. Total size of the sample is 1270 adults interviewed face to face in 127 randomly selected locations. Margin of error is 3%.

For further details, contact PSR director, Dr. Khalil Shikaki, or Walid Ladadweh at tel 02-296 4933 or email
pcpsr@pcpsr.org.

5-7 June 2008

http://www.pcpsr.org/survey/polls/2008/p28e.html


30) If Israel agrees to conduct peace negotiations with a Hamas, do you think the Hamas should or should not negotiate with Israel?
16.9%  1) certainly it should negotiate
42.7%  2) it should negotiate
26.4%  3) it should not negotiate
9.0%  4) certainly it should not negotiate
5.0%  5) DK/NA

31) There is a proposal that after the establishment of an independent Palestinian state and the settlemnet of all issues in dispute, including the refugees and Jerusalem issues, there will be a mutual recognition of Israel as the state of the Jewish people and Palestine as the state of the Palestinians people. Do you agree or disagree to this proposal?
7.4%  1) Definitely agree
48.4%  2) agree
33.6%  3) disagree
9.6%  4) definitely disagree
0.9%  5) DK/NA

32) And what is the Palestinian majority opinion on this issue? Do most Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza support or oppose the recognition of Israel as the state of the Jewish people and Palestine as the state of the Palestinian people at the end of the peace process?
52.2%  1) Majority supports
39.5%  2) Majority opposes
8.3%  3) DK/NA

33) And what is the Israeli majority opinion on this issue? Do most Israelis support or oppose the recognition of Israel as the state of the Jewish people and Palestine as the state of the Palestinian people at the end of the peace process?
41.0%  1) Majority supports
50.1%  2) Majority opposes
8.8%  5) DK/NA

34) Now 40 years after the Israeli occupation of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, what in your view are the chances for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state next to the state of Israel in the next five years? Are they high, medium, low, or none existent?
31.6%  1) None existent
34.7%  2) Low
27.0%  3) Medium
3.0%  4) High
3.7%  5) DK/NA

35) According to the Saudi plan, Israel will retreat from all territories occupied in 1967 including Gaza the West Bank, Jerusalem and the Golan Heights, and a Palestinian state will be established. The refugees problem will be resoved through negotiation in a just and agreed upon manner and in accordance with UN resolution 194 which allows return of refugees to Israel and compensation. In return, all Arab states will recognize Israel and its right to secure borders, will sign peace treaties with her and establish normal diplomatic relations.  Do you agree or disagree to this plan?
7.5%  1) Certainly agree
59.5%  2) agree
22.4%  3) disagree
6.0%  4) Certainly disagree
4.6%  5) DK/NA

36) The US, Russia, the European Community and the UN, the so called "Quartet", have put forward a "Roadmap" for the implementation of a final settlement within 3 years. The plan includes political reforms in the Palestinian Authority, including a constitution and election of a strong Prime Minister, stopping the incitement and violence on both sides under the Quartet's supervision, a freeze on settlements and the establishment of a Palestinian State within provisional borders. The next phase will see negotiations on the final borders under the auspices of an international conference. Do you support or oppose this initiative?
2.8%  1) Strongly support
46.7%  2) Support
37.1%  3) Oppose
9.8%  4) Strongly oppose
3.5%  5) Don't know/No answer

37-B) When Palestinians and Israelis return to final status negotiations the following items might be presented to negotiators as the elements of a permanent compromise settlement. Tell us what you think of each item then tell us what you think of all combined as one permanent status settlement

 1. An Israeli withdrawal from all of the Gaza Strip and the evacuation of its settlements. But in the West Bank, Israel withdraws and evacuates settlements from most of it, with the exception of few settlement areas in less than 3%  of the West Bank that would be exchanged with an equal amount of territory from Israel in accordance with the attached map {show map}.

 2. An independent Palestinian state would be established in the areas from which Israel withdraws in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip; the Palestinian state will have no army, but it will have a strong security force but an international multinational force would be deployed to insure the safety and security of the state. Both sides will be committed to end all forms of violence directed against each other.

 3. East Jerusalem would become the capital of the Palestinian state with Arab neighborhoods coming under Palestinian sovereignty and Jewish neighborhoods coming under Israel sovereignty. The Old City (including al Haram al Sharif) would come under Palestinian sovereignty with the exception of the Jewish Quarter and the Wailing Wall that will come under Israeli sovereignty.

 4. With regard to the refugee question, both sides agree that the solution will be based on UN resolutions 194 and 242 and on the Arab peace initiative. The refugees will be given five choices for permanent residency.
These are: the Palestinian state and the Israeli areas transferred to the Palestinian state in the territorial exchange mentioned above; no restrictions would be imposed on refugee return to these two areas.
Residency in the other three areas (in host countries, third countries, and Israel) would be subject to the decision of the states in those areas. The number of refugees returning to Israel will be based on the average number of refugees admitted to third countries like Australia, Canada, Europe, and others. All refugees will be entitled to compensation for their "refugeehood" and loss of properties.

 5. When the permanent status agreement is fully implemented, it will mean the end of the conflict and no further claims will be made by either side.
The parties will recognize Palestine and Israel as the homelands of their respective peoples 6. The Palestinian state will have sovereignty over its land, water, and airspace. But Israeli will be allowed to use the Palestinian airspace for training purposes, and will maintain two early warning stations in the West Bank for 15 years. The multinational force will remain in the Palestinian state for an indefinite period of time and its responsibility will be to insure the implementation of the agreement, and to monitor territorial borders and coast of the Palestinian state including its international border crossings.

Now that you have been informed of each element of the permanent compromise settlement, tell us what you think of each of its item. Do you agree or disagree with it.

37-1B) Item #1: withdrawal to 1967  borders with territorial swap
5.6%  1) Strongly agree
57.1%  2) Agree
25.5%  3) Disagree
9.4%  4) Strongly Disagree
2.3%  5) No Opinion /Don't Know
37-2B) Item #2: a state without an army but with international forces
1.4%  1) Strongly agree
26.5%  2) Agree
54.3%  3) Disagree
16.4%  4) Strongly Disagree
1.4%  5) No Opinion /Don't Know
37-3B) Item #3: East Jerusalem as capital of the state of Palestine after it
is divided
1.0%  1) Strongly agree
36.9%  2) Agree
44.5%  3) Disagree
16.4%  4) Strongly Disagree
1.1%  5) No Opinion /Don't Know

37-4B) Item #4: refugees with five options for permanent residence
1.7%  1) Strongly agree
39.3%  2) Agree
41.8%  3) Disagree
14.7%  4) Strongly Disagree
2.4%  5) No Opinion /Don't Know
37-5B) Item #5: end of conflict
5.2%  1) Strongly agree
50.3%  2) Agree
31.7%  3) Disagree
11.1%  4) Strongly Disagree
1.8%  5) No Opinion /Don't Know
37-6B) Item #6: a sovereign state with security arrangements
2.3%  1) Strongly agree
35.5%  2) Agree
45.3%  3) Disagree
14.9%  4) Strongly Disagree
2.0%  5) No Opinion /Don't Know

37-7B) Item #7: the combined elements as one permanent status settlement
1.5%  1) Strongly agree
44.2%  2) Agree
38.8%  3) Disagree
13.5%  4) Strongly Disagree
2.0%  5) No Opinion /Don't Know

38-1B) And what is the Palestinian majority opinion on this combined package for a permanent status settlement?  Do most Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza support or oppose this combined final status package?
49.4%  1) Majority supports
40.7%  2) Majority opposes
9.9%  3) DK/NA

38-2B) And what is the Israeli majority opinion on this combined package for a permanent status settlement?  Do most Israelis support or oppose this combined final status package?
36.8%  1) Majority supports
50.5%  2) Majority opposes
12.7%  3) DK/NA

39)  If a peace agreement is reached, and a Palestinian state is established and recognized by Israel, would you support or oppose the efforts to reach full reconciliation between Israel and the Palestinian state?
9.4%  1) Would strongly support
63.1%  2) Would support
20.5%  3) Would oppose
5.8%  4) Would strongly oppose
1.2%  5) DK/NA

40) And what are your expectations regarding the chances for the success or failure of the negotiations launched by Annapolis conference? Will it succeed or fail in ending Israeli occupation?
0.7%  1) certainly will succeed
15.6%  2) will succeed
51.0%  3) will fail
25.0%  4) certainly will fail
7.7%  5) DK/NA

41) The joint statement issued by the Annapolis conference stated that the two sides will seek to conclude the permanent status negotiations before the end of 2008. Do you think they will indeed succeed in achieving that on the period indicated?
0.5%  1) certainly will succeed
14.4%  2) will succeed
53.8%  3) will not succeed
25.6%  4) certainly will not succeed
5.7%  5) DK/NA

42) In your view, is it possible or impossible these days to reach a compromise permanent status agreement with the Olmert government?
0.7%  1) Certainly possible
21.5%  2) Possible
47.5%  3) Impossible
27.6%  4) Certainly impossible
2.7%  5) DK/NA

43) With regard to meetings between Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and PA President Mahmud Abbas, do you see them beneficial and should be continued or do you see them unbeneficial and should be stopped?
27.0%  1) Beneficial, and should continue
68.4%  2) Unbeneficial and should stop
4.6%  3) NO/DK

44) How soon do you think will a political settlement between Israel and the Palestinians be achieved?
42.0%  1) A political settlement is not possible ever
21.9%  2) Only in many generations to come
8.9%  3) Only in the next generation
5.8%  4) Only in the next decade
15.6%  5) Only in the next few years
5.8%  6) No Opinion /Don't know

45) After reaching a peace agreement between the Palestinian people and Israel and the establishment of a Palestinian state that is recognized by Israel, how soon do you think will reconciliation between the two peoples be achieved?
42.9%  1) Reconciliation is not possible ever
20.5%  2) Only in many generations to come
12.4%  3) Only in the next generation
6.3%  4) Only in the next decade
11.4%  5) On the next few years
6.5%  6) No Opinion /Don't know

46) There is a talk about conducting Palestinian-Israeli negotiations on an interim settlement whereby a Palestinian state is established in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip while other issues, such as refugees, would be postponed. Other people prefer negotiations that would lead to a comprehensive settlement that would lead to permanent peace and end of conflict with all issues, including refugees, resolved. Which of the two positions do you prefer: the interim settlement or the comprehensive one?
2.3%  1) definitely the interim
12.9%  2) the interim
60.2%  3) the comprehensive
20.4%  4) definitely the comprehensive
4.1%  5) DK/NA

47) Some people think that a solution based on the establishment of a Palestinian state along side Israel, known as the two-state solution, is difficult to achieve and that Palestinians should struggle for another solution, one in which Israel is unified with the West Bank and the Gaza Strip to establish one state whereby Palestinian Arabs and Israeli Jews would be equal. In your view, which of the two solutions is more difficult to achieve?
35.7%  1) two-state solution
37.5%  2) the one-state solution
24.8%  3) both equally difficult
1.9%  4) DK/NA

48) Regardless of its difficulty, which of the two solutions do you support?
57.6%  1) the two-state solution
27.0%  2) the one-state solution
10.4%  3) another solution (specify -------- )
5.1%  4) DK/NA

49) Do you support or oppose the launching of rockets from the Gaza Strip against towns and cities inside Israel, such as Sderot and Ashkelon?
17.3%  1) Certainly support
39.9%  2) Support
33.0%  3) Oppose
6.5%  4) Certainly oppose
3.2%  5) NA/DK

50) Concerning armed attacks against Israeli civilians inside Israel, I...
15.9%  1) Strongly support
38.9%  2) Support
37.2%  3) Oppose
4.5%  4) Strongly oppose
3.4%  5) DK/NA

51) Hamas is currently negotiation with Israel via Egypt to conclude a ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip. Do you support or oppose a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip?
13.9%  1) certainly support
63.7%  2) support
18.2%  3) oppose
3.0%  4) certainly oppose
1.2%  5) DK/NA

52_1) If the ceasefire is restricted to the Gaza Strip, and does not cover the West Bank, would you support or oppose it?
2.1%  1) certainly support
20.7%  2) support
64.9%  3) oppose
10.6%  4) certainly oppose
1.7%  5) DK/NA

52_2) What if the ceasefire did not stipulate an immediate opening of the crossings, especially the Rafah crossing to Egypt, would you in this case support or oppose it?
2.2%  1) certainly support
17.6%  2) support
64.7%  3) oppose
13.9%  4) certainly oppose
1.7%  5) DK/NA

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